Why Biden will choose Klobuchar

I expect Joe Biden's running mate to be Amy Klobuchar, the 60-year-old Senator from Minnesota, which borders my home state of Wisconsin. Wisconsin was one of the 3 states that determined the 2016 election, all of which voted for Trump by a margin of less than 1% (the others were Michigan and Pennsylvania). And Wisconsin is said to be the one state in the country that's most likely to make the difference in who wins the presidency.

Klobuchar's many debate performances showed that she has a command of the issues, strong rhetorical skills, and an ability to humanize herself and use humor effectively. Klobuchar wasn't considered a top-tier candidate while she was struggling to stand out among an unusually crowded Democratic field that included some flashier candidates, but she won't have that problem as running mate. Biden will be well aware that Klobuchar exceeded expectations when people started voting in the primaries, and at first seemed to be doing better than Biden (who is reportedly in the process of vetting Klobuchar).

The most commonly mentioned alternatives are Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Stacey Abrams, but Biden will have reasons to pass over them.

I don't believe the betting markets saying that Harris is the most likely running mate. Biden will look at her 2020 campaign as the best evidence of what she'd be like on the trail, and Harris did a remarkably bad job of campaigning. This isn't just 20/20 hindsight now that we know she lost. She started with one attention-getting debate moment which should have been a boon to her campaign — but instead of building on all that positive media attention, her support went steadily downhill. She flip-flopped, misrepresented her record, and failed to articulate a clear rationale for her campaign. When Tulsi Gabbard used a whole debate answer to launch a well-prepared attack on numerous aspects of Harris's record, Harris failed to come back with a strong defense of her career as a prosecutor. Considering how badly Biden needs assistance in the areas of communication and political skills, Harris isn't the running mate for Biden.

Warren's campaign proposals suggested that she would've been the most left-leaning president in generations, if not all of American history. Whatever her strengths, she would be ideologically incompatible with the relatively centrist Biden.

All other things being equal, Republicans would rather run against a Senator from Massachusetts (Warren) or California (Harris) than a Midwestern Senator like Klobuchar.

I don't know as much about Abrams, but a state legislature would seem to be weak experience for being president, since it's lacking in both executive experience (unlike a governor) and national experience (unlike a Senator).

When I wrote the above on Facebook, a commenter responded that Biden can't pick a white woman. The idea that Biden simply cannot choose a white woman implies that the running mate's race will be not just important, but so important as to overshadow all other factors. I've seen people implicitly making that assumption, but I haven't seen anyone make an argument for that view. (Even if my Klobuchar prediction is wrong and Biden ends up choosing a black woman, I still wouldn't be convinced that race was such an overwhelming factor; I'd assume he made the decision based on looking at many factors.)

More broadly, I've noticed that arguments that the presidential election will come down to one specific demographic group (e.g. race, gender, income) are often made before an election … but once the election happens, the most compelling analysis usually isn't limited to any one group of Americans. The analysis ends up involving a broader look at which candidate made the most compelling case to America as a whole. I expect Biden to think more in those terms, than in terms of persuading a specific group.




(Amy Klobuchar, her husband, and their daughter. Photo by Lorie Shaull, from Wikimedia Commons.)