I don't put much stock in national polls as a predictor of who will win the primaries, since the real primaries and caucuses are done state by state, giving certain states a huge amount of power and making others irrelevant to the outcome.
But national polls can still show an overall trend in a candidate's popularity, and the latest Zogby poll is amazing: Herman Cain is the frontrunner by a 20% margin. I almost did a double take to make sure 20% didn't refer to the total support for Cain. No, that's how much more support he has than the second-place candidate, Mitt Romney.
Cain has 38%. Romney has 18%, which is as much as he's gotten in any Zogby poll.
Rick Perry? Just 12% — less than a third of Cain, and tied with Ron Paul. Each of the other 5 candidates has less than 5%.
Uncannily, the Cain/Perry divide was almost exactly flipped in Zogby's poll on September 12: Perry 37%, Cain 12%. (The second of Perry's 3 debates happened on the evening of September 12, and he hadn't yet given his worst debate performance yet.)
Friday, October 7, 2011
Cain leaves everyone else in the dust in the latest Zogby poll.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
7 comments:
No one but voters have paid any attention to Cain.
I've been very fickle with my affections this year. First it was Bachmann, then Perry, and lately Cain. At first I thought Cain was a nut job, but his style has changed to fit what was needed.
People don't agree with everything he says, but they understand the way he thinks. I've heard several of my friends say, "I agreed with some of the things Cain said," as if they didn't agree with any of the things other candidates said. From the way the polls are going, this may in fact be the case.
I think Cain's plan of replacing the whole federal tax code with three flat 9% taxes would be a disaster and shows he didn't have much intention of being a serious candidate to begin with. It isn't "conservative" to make such a radical change all of a sudden based on one person's "so crazy it just might work!" idea. But that's a moot point since it would never pass. It doesn't even deserve to be called a "plan"; it's a gimmick, and it prevents me from being able to take him seriously as a candidate.
Aside from that, I don't know see a significant difference between his views and those of the other non-libertarian Republican candidates.
JAC: I think Cain's plan of replacing the whole federal tax code with three flat 9% taxes would be a disaster and shows he didn't have much intention of being a serious candidate to begin with.
I could say the same about Romney's 59(?) point plan to create jobs. It's clearly something he bought from consultants. You don't even need Romney, just hire his consultants. And he certainly hasn't been able to sell it.
Cain, on the other hand, has gotten Republicans to cheer for a national sales tax. Everyone has heard about 9-9-9. Maybe they don't like it, but they're talking about it and know what it entails. This lets people make a connection with Cain and understand how he thinks.
Meanwhile, I can't even name a single one of Romney's 59(?) points. I even have to use a "(?)" because I'm not exactly sure how many there are.
And I have no clue what goes on in Romney's head.
Aside from that, I don't know see a significant difference between his views and those of the other non-libertarian Republican candidates.
It's not about his views. Watch that MSNBC interview. None of the other candidates could have handled themselves that well. Supposedly Obama is going to fight as dirty as he can, Cain appears to be up to that challenge.
Cain was a math major, has a Masters in computer science, and was the chairman of a Federal Reserve Bank.
If anything, I should be skeptical of people who say his 9-9-9 plan can't work.
Cain was a math major, has a Masters in computer science...
"The capacity to grasp and manipulate complex ideas is enough to define intellect but not enough to encompass intelligence, which involves combining intellect with judgment and care in selecting relevant explanatory factors and in establishing empirical tests of any theory that emerges. Intelligence minus judgment equals intellect. Wisdom is the rarest quality of all — the ability to combine intellect, knowledge, experience, and judgment in a way to produce a coherent understanding. . . . The opposite of intellect is dullness or slowness, but the opposite of wisdom is foolishness, which is far more dangerous." — Thomas Sowell, Intellectuals and Society (pg. 2)
Not only has he studied math and computer science, but he was a mathematician and rocket scientist. But that doesn't mean his campaign promises about taxes are good ideas. I didn't say his plan can't work; I just said it would be radical and risky (and regressive).
Post a Comment