Why now is not the time for Democratic candidates to be getting specific on policy

In the early days of Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign, it was supposed to be this great thing that she was going on a long "listening" tour to hear from us, rather than starting out by telling us exactly what needs to be done. Now, I'm seeing a lot of Facebook posts saying Elizabeth Warren is the most impressive candidate because she's released a large number of specific policies very early on. I don't find that impressive, and I've never heard of this idea that the candidates should race to publish as many policy specifics as early as possible in the primaries. Also, if starting your campaign with a focus on listening to voters is such a good idea, couldn't it be better to hold off on getting too specific about your policy proposals at the very early stages of the primaries? Shouldn't the candidates be open to the possibility that listening to voters could change what policies they want to propose?

Amy Klobuchar: On, Wisconsin!

"Amy Klobuchar trolls Hillary Clinton with Wisconsin jab," reports the Washington Times:

“We’re going to be in Iowa and in Wisconsin,” the Minnesota Democrat told reporters after she announced her 2020 presidential bid in Minneapolis.

“I think we’re starting in Wisconsin because as you remember there wasn’t a lot of campaigning in Wisconsin in 2016,” she added. “With me, that changes.”

Mrs. Clinton infamously neglected to campaign in Wisconsin after she won the 2016 Democratic Party nomination. She wound up . . . becoming the first Democrat to lose the state since 1984.

Mrs. Clinton addressed the loss in her campaign memoir “What Happened.”

“If there’s one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end,” she wrote. “I would have torn up my schedule . . . and camped out there.”

Over and over during the 2016 race, I said we shouldn't call my home state of Wisconsin a "blue state." I kept saying it's a purple state, a swing state, a state that could go either way.

People told me I was wrong because Democrats had won Wisconsin in the past several presidential elections.

I told them to look at the margins of those elections in Wisconsin:

Al Gore won Wisconsin . . . by 0.22%, making it the third-closest state in 2000.

John Kerry won Wisconsin . . . by 0.38%, making it the closest of all 50 states in 2004.

Barack Obama won Wisconsin by more than 10% in 2008, but that was an unusually large margin for anyone to win Wisconsin (the biggest since 1964). Why did that happen? In November 2008, the economy seemed to be in free fall at the end of an 8-year Republican administration. An outlier under extraordinary circumstances like 2008 is a less reliable predictor than close elections like 2000 and 2004.

I also said to look at Wisconsin's governors. The governor back in 2016 was a staunchly conservative Republican, Scott Walker, who succeeded a Democrat, who succeeded two Republican governors in a row (including Tommy Thompson, a pioneer of welfare reform in the '90s who went on to serve in President George W. Bush's cabinet).

I grew up in the very left-wing state capital, Madison, but the rest of Wisconsin is not Madison. It was a terrible mistake for Democrats to overlook Wisconsin or make assumptions about the state.

November 2016: The New Normal

On Wednesday, the day after Election Day, in New York City (where both candidates gave their post-election speeches), the sky was cloudy and dark. The next day, it was sunny and warm for a November day.

As I watched the results come in on Tuesday night and gradually realized that it was not just a close election that would take a while before we saw the seemingly inevitable win for Hillary Clinton, but that Donald Trump had won decisively, I felt physically ill. I couldn't process the news. Calling the election an "upset" seemed to have a cruel double meaning. How could my country have elected a leader so odious and unqualified?

Encountering people on the street on Wednesday felt awkward, all of us aware of our national embarrassment. We heard reports of hate crimes committed by Trump supporters (some of which turned out to be hoaxes) and fears that America would descend into an authoritarian dystopia where overt bigotry runs rampant. Democrats and Republicans who had opposed Trump started thinking of charities to donate to and volunteer work to do, as if to offset the election results.

On the same day, we heard Hillary Clinton and President Obama speak about the news in an optimistic, level-headed way. The next day, the current and future presidents met for the first time and started working on the transition to the Trump administration. This is the new normal.

Accepting this will not mean acquiescing to everything, or even most things, that President Trump says or does. We should subject him to merciless scrutiny and criticism, just as we should with any other president. In fact, that will be possible only if we accept that he is legitimately the 45th President of the United States, and the time for protesting Trump's holding this office has passed. If you drown out any discussion of the specifics of his presidency with the familiar refrains that he's abnormal, racist, sexist, etc., you'll remove yourself from the realm of productive debates about the president.

Amid all the national squabbling about Trump that's been going on since June 16, 2015, a few indisputable facts stand out:

Trump said he'd run for president, and it was widely derided as something that would never happen, or, once he officially announced, as a short-lived publicity stunt.

Trump was right.

Trump said he'd win the Republican nomination, and virtually everyone said that wouldn't happen: he had a "hard ceiling" of support far below 50%, and eventually the rest of the field would narrow down to one main challenger who'd emerge as a consensus nominee.

Trump was right.

Trump said he'd win the presidency, and virtually every pundit said this was highly unlikely for any number of reasons: Clinton was ahead in the polls; she was the only one with a serious ground game; Trump had generally bombed the debates; his unfavorable rating was the highest of any presidential candidate in American history and especially bad with women and Hispanics; and it simply seemed implausible that such a person could ever be elected president.

Trump was right.

And he didn't win the election by just one state, as the most recent Republican president did twice. Trump apparently won Michigan, which was considered a blue state, and he won Pennsylvania, which was considered technically a swing state but with the footnote that no Republican candidate had won it since the '80s.

Trump has been wrong about many things. But on his ability to achieve his presidential goals, he's been more right than just about anyone else.

Of course, you might not want him to achieve his goals for his presidency.

But look at his long list of plans for his first 100 days in office. Some I disagree with, like tax cuts. Some are reiterations of unrealistic campaign themes, like getting Mexico to pay for a wall. Some I can't judge yet, like a vague promise to reduce corruption in Washington.

But some . . . actually seem like they just might be good ideas, like more school choice and streamlining the FDA's approval of medications.

And none of them involve turning America into a fascist dictatorship, forcibly removing citizens from the country, systematically violating due process, instituting apartheid, or squelching free speech.

It would be naive to expect any president to succeed in implementing all the best-sounding parts of their agenda. But if Trump is claiming he'll accomplish a number of things that sound like decent ideas, he might turn out to be right.

Let's wait and see. Let's give him a chance. And let's react to the particular things he does or doesn't do when he's in office, instead of unproductively agonizing over the general notion of him as president . . . as strange and troubling as that might be.

How should Democrats respond to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein supporters?

People say Hillary Clinton is such a good listener, and she may well be. But did she ever listen to Gary Johnson or Jill Stein or their supporters? I'm sure she'd agree that she had to work hard for every single vote. She wasn't entitled to anyone's vote. The fact that people like me voted for Gary Johnson (after voting for Gore, Kerry, and Obama) is meaningful. Instead of lashing out at us for how we cast our votes, listen to us and try to absorb what we were saying when we looked at "Clinton" and "Trump" on the ballot and said: "Neither, thanks."

Think about this: a candidate as bumbling as Johnson, who was ignored by the mainstream media except when there was a story that allowed the media to ridicule him for supposedly not knowing about the world, did far better than any other Libertarian candidate in history. That should send a message.

If you're a Democratic candidate or working for one, try to do better next time. You may think you tried as hard as possible this time. But the Democratic party didn't bother to oppose the worst excesses of the Obama administration — the Libya war, the drone war which could inspire more terrorists, the erosion of Americans' privacy, the expansive theories of executive power . . . Stop and think about the efficiency of markets and the appropriate limits of government power, instead of seeing every problem as one to be solved by government.

The popular vote doesn't matter

It doesn't matter that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, just as it didn't matter that Al Gore won the popular vote.

In both cases, I would have preferred the Democrat over the Republican. But I lost, and I can only accept the results of the election — just as so many people were urging Donald Trump to do if he lost. The same people would have been outraged if Trump had refused to accept the results after winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.

If you want to switch from the Electoral College to a popular-vote system, put your money where your mouth is. Do the hard work of lobbying for a constitutional amendment. This would take a long time, and you'd have no assurance that it would end up favoring candidates you happen to like. But it would be more effective than ad hoc complaints about the results of a particular election.

There is no such thing as "winning" the popular vote, because you can only "win" under existing rules. If we play chess and you capture my king, you win the whole game — end of story. If I capture more of your pieces in total, I don't "win" the plurality of pieces; I don't win anything. If I had wanted to be able to claim that as a win, I would have needed to reach an agreement with you before starting the game that our goal would be capturing as many pieces as possible — in which case, it's anyone's guess who would have won.

If we had switched to a popular-vote system right before this presidential race started, Trump and Clinton could have changed their get-out-the-vote strategies; Trump could have appealed to large numbers of conservatives and independents in places like California and New York; and Clinton could have appealed to liberals and independents in places like Austin and New Orleans. The candidates might have taken different positions on the issues, or emphasized different issues. And the unpredictability goes beyond that: we don't even know who would have been nominated if primary voters had been trying to choose a candidate who'd receive a plurality of individual votes. For that matter, we don't know if Trump and Clinton would have run for president, or if additional candidates like Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden would have resisted the outpouring of pleas for them to run.

Any discussion of a candidate receiving a "win" or "victory" in the 2016 popular vote exists only in the realm of hypothetical alternative history, and has no bearing on the rightful winner in the real world. The only thing the candidates were trying to do was to win the Electoral College, so that's the only fair basis for judging their results.

Why did Democrats allow Hillary Clinton to coast to the nomination?

I've never understood it. Her only strong competition was a cranky, ill-informed 75-year-old self-proclaimed socialist yelling about revolution. The problem wasn't a lack of available alternatives: liberals pleaded with Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden to run, but for some reason, they didn't, even knowing they're old enough that this decision might close the door on ever becoming president. And it's hard to believe that Clinton's running mate, Tim Kaine, hadn't considered running for the 2016 nomination after being vetted by Obama in 2008.

In the end, Hillary Clinton proved herself to be a painfully mediocre candidate. It's one thing to lose toss-up states like Florida and Ohio, but the fact that she lost Pennsylvania and Michigan speaks volumes. This happened even though her campaign was far better funded and she was believed to be the only candidate with a serious get-out-the-vote operation.

When you consider how she failed at mastering the delegate game in the 2008 primaries, then went on to win her party's nomination only with bizarrely weak competition (and more narrowly against Bernie Sanders than anyone had excepted), then lost the general election to a historically unqualified candidate, the conclusion is clear: Hillary Clinton is just not a skilled politician. As she openly admitted during the campaign, she lacks the political gifts of Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. It's great that she's self-aware enough to realize that, but why didn't the Democratic Party as a whole realize it before it was too late?

Photos of campaign 2016 in NYC

My goal with these photos was simply to document the various ways I saw people in New York City expressing themselves with respect to the 2016 presidential race. I don't intend these photos to express any of my own views about the candidates depicted or referenced in these images.

Click the link for all 17 photos — here's a sampling:

Live-blogging the last presidential debate of 2016

I'll be live-blogging the debate here.

As usual, I'll be doing this without a pause/rewind button, so any quotes might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate, and I might go back and correct some of them later.

You can find more live-blogging at National Review and TPM.

9:06 — The first question is about the Supreme Court. Hillary Clinton is asked whether the Constitution is a "flexible, living document." She says we need a Supreme Court to "stand up" for women's rights by not reversing Roe v. Wade, "stand up" for gay rights by not reversing marriage equality, and "say no to Citizens United," which has "undermined the election system in our country."

9:08 — Donald Trump criticizes Justice Ginsburg for criticizing him. As for the Constitution, he predictably emphasizes the Second Amendment. He'd nominate a Justice with a "conservative bent," who's "pro-life," who'll interpret "the Constitution the way it was meant to be" (note the past tense, implying it's not a "living document").

9:11 — The moderator, Chris Wallace, asks Clinton "what's wrong" with DC v. Heller, the Supreme Court decision that said individuals have a right to bear arms, which can be "reasonably limited." She admits that she disagreed with the specific outcome in Heller, but she is in favor of the Second Amendment.

9:13 — Trump says Clinton was "extremely angry" about the "well-crafted" decision in Heller, and "people who believe in the Second Amendment" were upset with her. Clinton notes that Trump is "strongly supported by the NRA," and Trump wonders if she was being "sarcastic" about that.

9:15 — Trump is asked if he wants to see Roe v. Wade overruled. He initially dodges the question by saying that if it's overruled, the abortion issue will be decided by the states. But then he admits that he'd nominate Justices who'd overrule Roe.

9:18 — Clinton is asked why she "voted against a ban on partial-birth abortion." She starts out legalistically, by talking about the holding of Roe, but then gets more emotional, by saying late-term abortions are "often the most heart-breaking, painful decisions."

9:19 — Trump gives a graphic description of a partial-birth abortion being performed on the day before the birth was scheduled. Clinton responds: "Using that kind of scare rhetoric is just terribly unfortunate." She strikes a rare libertarian note by talking about how "the government" shouldn't make this decision — she's been to countries where the government forced women to get abortions (China), or to give birth.

9:22 — On immigration, Trump says: "We have some bad hombres here!" "We're getting the drugs; they're getting the cash."

9:24 — Clinton says Trump has said, as recently as a few weeks ago, that "every undocumented person would be subject to deportation," which "would rip our country apart." But she'd deport "any violent person."

9:25 — Clinton says that when Trump met with the President of Mexico, he "choked," then "got into a Twitter war." Trump calls it a "very good meeting" — "very nice man."

9:26 — Trump: "Hillary Clinton fought for the wall in 2006. She never gets anything done, so naturally the wall wasn't built." Clinton says she voted for "border security," but Trump interjects that this included "a wall." Clinton comes back with another hypocrisy charge: Trump "exploited undocumented workers."

9:29 — Chris Wallace quotes a leak from Wikileaks saying that she said in a speech, for which she was paid $225,000, that her "dream" is an "open market" with "open borders." Clinton initially says something about how energy is a global market, and then shifts to focusing on Russia's role in the leak — Trump "encouraged espionage against our people." Trump: "That was a great pivot off the fact that she wants open borders. . . . People are going to pour in from Syria."

9:32 — Trump, who seems to be on top of his game (apparently benefiting from his increased preparation before this debate), says: "I don't know Putin. He said nice things about me. If we got along well, that would be great." But Clinton says Putin's "choice in this election is clear." Trump retorts: "Putin has outsmarted her and Obama at every step of the way!" When Clinton says Putin wants Trump installed as a puppet, Trump shouts at Clinton: "No puppet! You're the puppet!"

9:35 — Clinton excoriates Trump for his "cavalier" statements about nuclear weapons, quoting him as saying, "If we have them, why don't we use them," which is "terrifying." "When the president gives the order" to launch nukes, "it must be followed." Trump responds harshly, by saying Clinton has "been proven to be a liar" — "this is just another lie."

9:38 — Both candidates our asked why their economic plan "will create more jobs and growth," and their opponent's won't. Clinton reels off her same economic proposals she's listed in the previous debates. "We're going to go where the money is," i.e. tax the wealthy, because "most of the gains have been at the top. In contrast, Trump would give "the biggest tax breaks ever" to the wealthy and corporations, which would be "trickle-down economics on steroids."

9:40 — Trump says Clinton's plan would "double your taxes," and "President Obama's regime" has "doubled our national debt." As for his own plan, Trump emphasizes how we're losing out to other countries, like Japan, and how he'd somehow cause "off-shored" money to come back to the US.

9:44 — Chris Wallace asks Clinton if her plan is just "more of the Obama stimulus," which "led to the slowest GDP growth since 1949." Trump interjects: "Correct!" After an awkward pause, Wallace dryly responds:  "Thank you, sir."

9:46 — Wallace tells Trump: "Even conservative economists who have looked at your plan have said the numbers don't add up" — his projections on economic growth and energy are "unrealistic." Trump doesn't defend the specifics of his plan, but makes broad statements about how China's growth has been much better than America's.

9:50 — Trump says Clinton "totally lied" in an earlier debate when she denied calling TPP "the gold standard." Clinton comes back: "The Trump hotel right here in Las Vegas is made of Chinese steel. So he goes around with crocodile tears . . ." Trump tries to turn the tables by blaming this on the lack of laws against it: "Make it impossible to do that! I wouldn't mind!" Trump concedes: "The one thing you have over me is more experience — but it's bad experience." Clinton seizes on the opportunity to recount her "30 years of experience" with what Trump was doing at the time, including calling Miss Universe "an eating machine."

9:52 — Trump somehow brings the topic around to foreign policy (which the moderator hasn't raised): "She gave us ISIS, which came out of a yuge vacuum."

9:53 — Wallace asks Trump why so many women have recently come forward to accuse him of sexual misconduct, and asks Clinton about the fact that even worse allegations have been made against her husband. Trump says: "Those stories have been largely debunked. . . . I have a feeling it was her campaign that did it."

9:55 — Clinton starts out not by answering Wallace's question about Bill Clinton, but by attacking Trump: "Donald thinks belittling women makes him bigger."

9:57 — Trump: "Nobody has more respect for women than I do." The audience laughs. Trump changes the subject to Clinton's emails, without pointing out that she didn't answer the question about Bill Clinton.

9:59 — Clinton, her voice breaking, talks about Trump's "dark and . . . dangerous vision of our country, where he incites violence . . . where people are pulling and pushing at his rallies."

10:00 — Clinton is asked whether she really kept her pledge to avoid "even the appearance of impropriety" with respect to the Clinton Foundation, when donors seem to have gotten "special access" to the State Department. She said the Clinton Foundation allowed millions of people with HIV/AIDS to get treatment, but Wallace cuts off, pointing out that that hasn't answered the question about the "pay to play" allegations. When Clinton starts responding (though I don't think she ever answered the question about the Clinton Foundation), Trump aggressively interrupts, saying: "It's a criminal enterprise! . . . These are people who push gays off buildings and treat women horribly, yet you take their money."

10:03 — Clinton points out that the Trump Foundation spent some of its funds on "a 6-foot-tall portrait of Donald. Who does that?!" Trump insists that 100% of the Trump Foundation's funds go to charity, and that he gets nothing except "the right to put up an American flag." Clinton, smiling at the wide-open opportunity he's handed her, says: "Of course, there's no way to know whether any of that is true, because he hasn't released his tax returns!"

10:07 — Trump is asked if he'll "make a commitment that [he] will absolutely accept the results of this election." Trump refuses to make any pledge: "I'll look at it at the time. . . . Millions of people are registered to vote who shouldn't be able to vote." Wallace bears down on our tradition of "peaceful transfers of power," no matter how fought the election is, but Trump won't budge: "I'll keep you in suspense!"

10:10 — Clinton points out that Trump has a history of calling things "rigged" when they go against him — even when he lost the Emmys 3 years in a row. Trump: "Should have gotten it!"

10:12 — Wallace asks if either candidate would use ground troops in Mosul, Iraq, if ISIS leaves. Clinton apparently supports continuing Obama's policies, but is against ground troops. Trump makes his usual point that we shouldn't announce our military operations in advance, then brings up Obama's infamous "red line" comment about Syria and chemical weapons.

10:19 — Wallace asks Trump about the fact that in the last debate, he said "several things that were not true" about Aleppo, Syria. I missed the specific inaccuracies, but Trump doesn't admit to any of them. Instead, he focuses on Clinton: "If she had done nothing, we'd be in much better shape!"

10:24 — When Clinton talks about how she'd have "thorough vetting" of Syrian refugees, Trump squints and slowly nods, which seems to be a subconscious mistake.

10:26 — Next topic is the national debate. Wallace asks: "Why are you both of you ignoring this problem?" After Trump answers, Clinton points out that Trump "has been criticizing our government for decades. "I wonder when he thought America was great!"

10:31 — Trump is asked if he'd consider a "grand bargain on entitlements" — Social Security and Medicare. He dodges the question by talking about how his other policies would help the economy: tax cuts and repealing Obamacare. Clinton says repealing Obamacare would make the problem worse. Trump: "Your husband disagrees with you!"

10:34 — In the last segment of the last debate, Wallace says the candidates didn't agree to a "closing statement," but he goes ahead and asks each of them for a 1-minute statement of why we should vote for them. Clinton makes her usual points about "rising incomes" and appealing to all Americans. Trump says his usual points about veterans (who are "treated worse than illegal immigrants"), police, "the inner cities," etc.

10:37 — At the end, Clinton goes over to shake the moderator's hand, and then Trump shakes the moderator's hand too. The candidates don't shake each others' hands.

Winner: Chris Wallace

Live blogging the "town hall" presidential debate of 2016

I'll be live-blogging the debate here.

Of course, this will be the first debate since the public heard Donald Trump's 2005 comments about how he approaches women he finds attractive.

Earlier this evening, Trump had a public appearance, which he called a "debate prep," with women who have accused former President Bill Clinton of sex offenses. Apparently, they'll all be in the debate audience.

As usual, I'll be doing this without a pause/rewind button, so any quotes might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate, and I might go back and correct some of them later.

More live-blogging at TPM and National Review.

9:06 — An audience member asks both candidates if they think they're "modeling appropriate and positive behavior for today's youth." Hillary Clinton goes first. "Our country is great because we're good." She emphasizes her "positive and optimistic view" of what the country can do, and overcoming "divisiveness." This is a bland answer; she doesn't take the opportunity to attack Trump explicitly. Donald Trump also starts his answer to the same question in a positive way: "I agree with everything she said!" Then he segues into some of his standard points about Obamacare, the Iran deal, the deficit, and inner cities — none of which answers the question.

9:10 — Anderson Cooper reminds us of the question, and brings up the tape: "You described kissing women without consent, grabbing their genitals — that is sexual assault." Trump denies saying that or ever doing "those things" (Cooper's words). Trump says he was "embarrassed" and "apologized" to his family and the American people, then pivots to talking about ISIS chopping off heads.

9:13 — Clinton responds: "What we all saw and heard on Friday was Donald talking about ... what he thinks about women, what he does to women. . . . I think it's clear to anyone who heard it that it represents exactly what he is. Because we have seen this throughout the campaign. We have seen him insult women. We have seen him rate women from 1 to 10." She then connects this to Trump targeting "Muslims, immigrants, people with disabilities, POWs." She says "America is already great" — an obvious rejoinder to Trump's slogan, "Make America great again" — and repeats her statement about America being "great" by being "good."

9:16 — Trump has a weak rebuttal: "It's just words, folks. It's just words." [Video of the first 11 minutes.]

9:18 — "If you look at Bill Clinton, far worse. Mine are words — his were actions. . . . There has never been anybody in the history of politics in this nation who's been as abusive to women." Trump accuses Hillary Clinton of mistreating those women, and laughing about how, as a defense attorney, she won a case defending a man accused of raping a 12-year-old girl. Trump points out that that girl, and Paula Jones, who accused Bill Clinton of sexual assault, are in the audience (as is Bill himself). "I think it's disgraceful, and I think she should be ashamed of herself." Clinton is given 2 minutes to respond, but doesn't address those charges at all. It turns into a free-for-all, with both of attacking each other for a litany of things — Trump's mocking of a disabled reporter, Clinton's "acid-washed" emails, etc. Trump promises to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton.

9:24 — Clinton: "It's just awfully good that the someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of this country." Trump: "Because you'd be in jail!"

9:25 — Clinton is asked about her emails. She of course calls it "a mistake," but emphasizes that an investigation found no evidence that her email was hacked or caused classified information to "get into the wrong hands."

9:28 — Trump brings up Bill Clinton's conversation with the Attorney General by an airplane while Hillary was under investigation.

9:29 — Trump gets into a back-and-forth with Anderson Cooper about Trump interrupting Clinton. She says: "OK, Donald! I know you want diversions, because your campaign and the way it's exploding and the way Republicans are leaving you."

9:30 — An audience member asks about health care, and Clinton says it seems like "Donald wants to go first." Trump says: "No, you can go first, Hillary, because I'm a gentleman." (He's dropped his approach from the first debate of calling her "Secretary Clinton.")

9:34 — Trump says Clinton "wants to go to single-payer, which means the government basically runs everything. . . . Obamacare was the first step."

9:34 — Anderson Cooper asks Hillary Clinton about Bill Clinton's comments about Obamacare being "crazy." "Was his mistake just telling the truth?" Clinton says no, he later "clarified" what he meant — although that's not particularly clear.

9:37 — Trump is asked how he'd make do on his promise to let people with pre-existing conditions get health insurance. Trump says he'd do it by getting rid of "lines" around states. He also calls Obamacare "a fraud," bringing up President Obama's false promise that if you like your plan, you can keep it.

9:38 — A member of the audience who's Muslim asks Trump about fear of Muslims. Trump: "Muslims have to report the problems when they see them. . . . If they don't do that, it's a very difficult situation for our country." Trump adds that Clinton can't solve the terrorism problem if she's not willing to say the words "radical Islamic terrorism." Clinton comes back that it's "short-sighted and even dangerous to be engaging in the kind of demagogic rhetoric Donald has about Muslims," which is "a gift to ISIS."

9:42 — Trump is asked if the "Muslim ban" he proposed last year is "still [his] position." He says it "has morphed into extreme vetting." On Syrian refugees, he says: "We know nothing about their values, and we know nothing about their love for our country." Martha Raddatz asks Clinton why she'd dramatically increase the number of Syrian refugees brought into the US. Raddatz expresses skepticism of whether the vetting would work, but Clinton claims it would be "as tough as it needs to be."

9:46 — Trump is aggressively policing whether the moderators are letting him go over his time as much as Clinton, whether they're interrupting the candidates equally, etc. This is sure to excite his base but seems unlikely to win over independent voters.

9:48 — Clinton is asked about her leaked comment in a speech that "you need both a public and a private position on some issues." She says it was inspired by Abraham Lincoln: "He convinced some people with some arguments, and other people with other arguments."

9:53 — Trump says he pays "hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes," and he'd be "proud" to release his tax returns.

9:53 — An audience member asks how they'd change the tax code so that "the wealthy pay their fair share." Trump: "I'd give up carried interest provisions — for people like me." He points out that if Clinton thinks he hasn't paid enough in taxes, she should have changed that while she was in power. "She is raising your taxes, and I am lowering your taxes." Trump says our "GDP" is about "1%," although he clearly means we have about 1% growth; the GDP is a monetary amount, not a percentage.

9:56 — Clinton responds: "Everything you've heard from Donald Trump is just not true. . . . He lives in kind of an alternative universe." She says Trump would raise taxes on the middle class and give money to the rich, even more than George W. Bush's tax cuts did. "Donald always takes care of Donald and people like Donald." Trump retorts: "Hillary Clinton has friends who want all of these provisions! . . . With her, it's all talk, no action." In response to Trump saying she was an ineffective Senator, Clinton points out that she was a Senator when the president was a Republican — "under our Constitution, presidents have something called veto power."

10:06 — I've zoned out a little as they've discussed foreign policy. When Trump brings up Obama's infamous "red line" comment about Syria, which he failed to act on when Syria later used chemical weapons, Clinton says she was no longer Secretary of State by then. [Added later: Clinton was Secretary of State when Obama made the comment, but not when Syrian used the weapons a year later.] Trump comes back: "Sadly, Obama listened to you. I don't think he'd listen to you much anymore."

10:10 — Trump criticizes Obama for letting the enemy know where we're going to attack weeks in advance, allowing them time to leave. Martha Raddatz inappropriately steps out of her role as moderator and starting arguing with Trump over this: "There are reasons the military does that — psychological warfare."

10:14 — A rather abstract question from an audience member: "Do you believe you can be a devoted president to all the people in the United States?" Trump says he would, in contrast with Clinton, who calls his supporters "deplorable" and "irredeemable" — "she's got tremendous hatred!" Trump says Clinton was "a disaster" for upstate New York as Senator, but Clinton shoots him down while laughing: "Well, 67% of the people voted to elect me when I ran for my second term!" Clinton answers the audience member's question by quoting a young boy whose family immigrated here from Ethiopia, who wrote to her asking if he'd be deported under a President Trump.

10:22 — Anderson Cooper asks Trump if it's presidential to tweet about a "sex tape" at 3:00 a.m. Trump connects this to Benghazi and Clinton's 2008 ad about being ready to take a "3 a.m. phone call."

10:25 — In response to a question about Supreme Court nominations, Clinton says: "I want to appoint Supreme Court Justices who understand the way the world really works, who have real-life experience." She wants a Justice who'd overrule Citizens United, and uphold Roe v. Wade and marriage equality. Trump says he'd choose someone "in the mold of Justice Scalia," who'd "respect the 2nd Amendment."

10:29 — An audience member asks how they'd balance our "energy needs" with the environment. Trump emphasizes the former: "The EPA is killing these energy companies." Clinton starts her answer with an attack: "China is illegally dumping steel in the United States — and Donald Trump is buying it for his business."

10:34 — The last question: "Name one positive thing that you respect in one another." Clinton says: "I respect his children. His children are incredibly able." But she hastens to add: "I don't agree with anything else he says or does!" Trump: "She doesn't quit. She doesn't give up. I respect that. She's a fighter. I disagree with much of what she's fighting for . . . but she does fight hard."

At the beginning of the debate, the candidates noticeably refrained from shaking hands, which they had in the first debate. At the end, they briefly shake hands before walking over to their families.

About an hour into the debate, Josh Marshall, a Democrat, said:

This is a very different debate. The first 15 or 20 minutes were terrible for Trump. Since then he's done much better. It's hard to evaluate Trump because his manner is so caustic. But just in the most basic sense he's got in his key attacks against Hillary. So that's different. He does seem more prepared than he was on round one.

Peter Beinart, the former editor of the New Republic, says:

hate to say it but I think [Trump] staunched his campaign's collapse tonight. Until the next big scoop . . .

This assessment by Mark Antonio of National Review seems right:

Trump camp think they won the night -- they did. But they're still losing the war -- tonight didn't change that.

My mom, Ann Althouse, points out that it wasn't much of a "town hall" debate.

Live-blogging the 2016 vice-presidential debate

I'll be live-blogging the vice-presidential debate here, starting at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

As usual, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly, without a pause/rewind button, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate, and I may or may not go back later and fix them.

You can find more live-blogging at National Review, TPM, the New American Perspective, and Althouse (my mom).

9:06 — The moderator, Elaine Quijano, asks how they're qualified to step into the job of president at a moment's notice. Hillary Clinton's running mate, Tim Kaine, says she picked him because he's been a missionary, mayor, governor, and Senator — he's "served at all levels of government." He adds that as the father of a son who's a Marine, he "trusts" Clinton as "commander-in-chief," but "the thought of Donald Trump scares [him] to death."

9:08 — Donald Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, talks about his roots, repeatedly using the phrase "small town" and, of course, talking about his experience (like Kaine, Pence has been a governor and a member of Congress). While Pence speaks, Kaine is writing furiously.

9:11 — Kaine is asked why we should "trust" Clinton. He pivots to attacking Trump for "calling Mexicans rapists." "I can't imagine how Governor Pence can defend the insult-driven, selfish, me-first style of Donald Trump."

9:12 — Pence is asked about the perception that Trump is "erratic." Instead of answering the question, Pence starts out negative, blaming Clinton for the situation in Syria and other places. Kaine interrupts to remind us of Trump's praise for Vladimir Putin, and Pence shoots back: "I must have hit a nerve!" They argue about whether this is still Pence's "time" or "open discussion." I don't know that Pence ever answered the question.

9:15 — Kaine condescends to Pence, asking him if he "understand[s]" various facts, such as that Osama bin Laden was alive when Clinton became Secretary of State. (This reminds me of then–Vice President George H.W. Bush condescending to Geraldine Ferraro; she called him out for presuming to lecture her in the 1984 vice-presidential debate.)

9:18 — Pence quotes Bill Clinton's comments, earlier today, that Obamacare is a "crazy" system.

9:19 — Kaine frames the voters' choice as a "you're hired" candidate vs. a "you're fired" candidate. He brings up Trump's bizarre statement during the primaries that "wages are too high." "His tax plan basically helps him" — it's "really a Trump-first plan."

9:21 — Pence brushes off Kaine's "you're hired"/"you're fired" comment by saying Kaine and Clinton "use a lot of pre-done lines." The moderator eventually reminds him of the question she asked a while ago, about Trump's tax returns that were released by the New York Times. Pence says it shows that Trump "went through a very difficult time," and used the tax system "the way it's supposed to be used." Kaine asks how he can know that, since Trump hasn't released his tax returns. Kaine makes an important point: Pence needed to disclose his tax returns to be vetted by Trump, who hasn't even met the standards he applies to his own running mate. Pence also makes a good point by asking if Kaine takes all the deductions he can.

9:27 — In response to a question about Social Security, Kaine says Clinton's main focus would be raising the "payroll tax cap." Pence responds by channeling Ronald Reagan: "There they go again!"

9:31 — On guns, Kaine talks about his experience as Governor of Virginia during the Virginia Tech shooting, which he says could have been prevented with background checks.

9:32 — Pence tells Kaine: "Let me say, at the risk of agreeing with you . . . [painfully long pause] . . . community policing is a great idea." And he says we should "stop seizing on these moments of tragedy" to "demean law enforcement broadly by making accusations of implicit bias." Kaine retorts that we shouldn't be "afraid" to talk about police racism. Pence says it doesn't make sense to see black police officers as biased against blacks.

9:37 — Kaine argues that Trump/Pence will have a problem improving "law and order" given the "tone set from the top" — he reels off a lot of Trump's insults against "Mexicans," "women," John McCain, etc. Pence says that pales in comparison next to Clinton "calling half of Trump's supporters a 'basket of deplorables.'" But Kaine says at least Clinton apologized the next day — Trump never apologized for his comments about McCain last year.

9:45 — Kaine has been regularly interrupting Pence, usually with no comment from the moderator. Yet Quijano chastised Pence for interrupting at one point, and she also told both of them early on that we can't hear either of them when they overlap. I'd like to see a breakdown of how often they interrupted each other, and how often Quijano intervened over the interruptions — Kaine seems to have had virtually free rein to talk over Pence.

9:48 — Kaine yet again repeats Trump's comments about McCain, and connects it to Trump's statement that he knows more than US generals. Kaine says Trump has "a personal Mount Rushmore" of dictators, including Kim Jong-Un and Saddam Hussein. Pence lamely repeats that Kaine is using "prepared lines," and Kaine says: "Let's see if he can defend any of it!" Pence's strategy is clearly to be serious and somber, focus on substance (especially criticizing Clinton and President Obama), and not engage with Kaine's attacks on Trump.

9:54 — Kaine, pointing toward Pence: "These guys say all Mexicans are bad." Ah, but Trump told us in his campaign announcement speech he "assume[s]" some Mexican immigrants are "good people"! (A little after 11:00 in this video.)

9:55 — Quijano has started a new question while Pence is still speaking a few times now. I don't remember her doing that with Kaine.

10:02 — Kaine, again mocking Trump for his comments on Putin: "If you don't know the difference between dictatorship and leadership, then you need to go back to a 5th-grade civics class. I'll tell you what offends me . . ." Pence: "Well, that offends me!"

Bill Scher, a Democrat, comments:

Pence may be winning on style points, but there's no breakout moment here

10:06 — Kaine quotes Reagan warning of a maniac (not his word — I didn't catch it) getting control of nuclear weapons, and says that's what a Trump presidency would be. Pence is appalled: "Senator, that was even beneath you and Hillary Clinton, and that's pretty low!"

10:08 — Kaine says he's asked Pence 6 times to defend Trump, and Pence has refused every time. Pence offers to defend Trump against Kaine's charges "one by one," so Kaine says Trump has said more countries should have nuclear weapons — "Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea." Pence flatly denies Trump has said that.

10:11 — Pence starts out his answer to a foreign-policy question by saying he's "just trying to keep up with the insult-driven campaign on the other side of the table!" When Kaine jumps in, Quijano finally tells Kaine: "Senator, please, this is Governor Pence's two minutes." She says essentially the same thing a couple minutes later.

10:14 — Kaine is asked: "What went wrong with the Russia reset?" He simply says: "Vladimir Putin is a dictator!" Kaine approvingly quotes McCain's line from one of the 2008 general-election debates that he looked in Putin's eyes and saw "KGB" (which itself was an allusion to George W. Bush's infamous statement about looking in Putin's eyes and getting "a sense of his soul").

Alex Knepper, who supports Clinton, has been pretty critical of Kaine:

Kaine needs to stop interrupting, like, now. . . .

Kaine is over-playing the bin Laden card. . . .

Enough with the John McCain stuff. Why does Kaine think it is such a killer line?

10:19 — Kaine describes the Trump Organization as "an octopus with tentacles all over the world."

10:23 — The moderator asks when they've struggled to balance their faith with public policy. Kaine says: "The Catholic Church is against the death penalty, and so am I." But he had to sign off on executions as Governor of Virginia in cases where he saw no reason to grant clemency.

10:25 — Pence's answer to the religion question is about abortion, and he pivots to attacking Clinton and Kaine for supporting legal "partial-birth abortion," although he acknowledges that Kaine is "personally pro-life." Kaine responds that the law shouldn't enforce religious tenets; he supports Roe v. Wade; Pence would like to repeal Roe; Trump has said he'd "punish" women for getting abortions. Pence says of course women should never be punished for making the "heart-breaking" choice to get an abortion. Pence also brings up that Kaine supports the current law that federal funding can't be used for abortions — and Clinton would like to repeal that law.

Frank Luntz sums up his focus group: "Kaine is interrupting too much. The focus group wants the moderator to lay down the law and shut him up until it’s his turn.”

10:34 — Pence's closing statement: "The best way we can bring people together is through change in Washington, DC." Sounds like Obama '08.

That's all. Alex Knepper (who, again, supports Clinton) gives his assessment:

Final Grades: Pence: B; Kaine: B-; Verdict: Wash

Cinzia Croce, who supports Trump but was "not a Pence fan" before the debate started, says this (co-blogging in the same post as Alex Knepper):

[Pence] was superb tonight. Whoever prepared him for the debate needs to help Trump for the next debate. Kaine . . . was nervous and seemed too focused on getting out the talking points he was given. I give Pence an A+ and Kaine a C+. And the moderator gets an F.

Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review, agrees with Cinzia Croce:

If Trump had been half as good as Pence last Monday, the race might look different right now

My overall assessment: Kaine was very annoying, and Pence was soothing by contrast. They both went very negative against the other side's nominee (while being gentle toward each other as individuals), but Kaine's negativity was more grating. Kaine cleverly made Pence look weak for not defending Trump — although Pence also seemed sympathetic for often not being able to get a word in. Kaine might have scored more points. But Pence might have helped Trump's campaign more than Kaine helped Clinton's, because Trump so badly needed Pence's serious, presidential tone.

It was hard to get through this whole thing without once accidentally writing "Paine" — that I can tell you!

Live-blogging the first general-election debate of 2016

I'll be live-blogging the debate here, starting at 9:00 Eastern time.

As usual, I'll be doing this on the fly, without the benefit of pause/rewind buttons, so any quotes I write down won't necessarily be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate, and I may or may not correct some of them later on.

You may be able to find more live-blogging at TPM or National Review.

9:05 — I'm at a debate-watching party, and the whole room erupted in laughter when Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump walked onstage, smiled at each other, and shook hands.

9:07 — Why will each candidate be the better one to create jobs? Hillary Clinton goes first. She says she'd raise the minimum wage and "guarantee, finally, equal pay for equal work." "If you help make the profits, you should be able to share in them." Also, "paid family leave," "affordable child care," "free college," and "clos[ing] the corporate loopholes." After all that, she smiles and says, with deliberate awkwardness: "Donald . . . it's good to be with you!"

9:08 — Donald Trump starts out on a more negative note: China is "using our country as a piggybank to rebuild" itself, and so are "many other countries." "Ford is leaving . . . they're all leaving." Now more positive: he agrees with Clinton on child care (or maybe he said family leave), while disagreeing on "amounts." He'll reduce corporate taxes to create economic growth like we haven't seen since Ronald Reagan — "a beautiful thing to watch."

9:11 — Clinton slams Trump's economic plan as "the most extreme version" of "trickle-down economics." "Trumped-up trickled down!" As my mom's drinking game predicted, she compares Trump's experience starting a business with a multi-million-dollar loan from his father with her family background — her dad was a small-businessperson.

9:13 — Trump is cool and collected in rebutting Clinton's attack. He doesn't focus on Clinton or her criticism; instead, he pivots to his talking points. "In all fairness to Secretary Clinton . . ." Then he disarmingly looks over to her for her approval about how he addressed her: "Yes? Is this OK? I want her to be happy! It's very important to me!" Trump then launches into a long explanation of why he thinks companies are leaving the US.

9:15 — Clinton accuses Trump of "root[ing] for the housing crisis" because he hoped he could make some money off it. Trump interjects: "That's called business!" Clinton cites "independent experts" who say Trump's tax plan would destroy millions of jobs, while Clinton's would create 10 million jobs.

9:17 — Clinton says Trump thinks climate change is "a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese." Trump: "I didn't say that!"

9:19 — Trump finally goes after Clinton: "You've been doing this for 30 years! Why are just thinking of solutions now?" Clinton reminds us that the economy did well under her husband, but Trump comes back that he signed NAFTA, and Hillary Clinton supported TPP. She says she opposed it once it was finalized, but Trump points out that this was only after Trump opposed it. Clinton responds: "I know you live in your own reality . . ."

9:26 — Though the whole discussion has been about the economy, Trump suddenly tells Clinton: "You're telling ISIS everything you're going to do! No wonder you've been fighting ISIS your entire adult life!" Clinton: "Fact-checkers, get to work!" A little later, she flashes a big smile and quips: "I have a feeling by the end of this evening, I'm going to be blamed for everything that's ever happened!"

9:31 — Trump is asked why he doesn't release his tax returns. "I don't mind releasing!" But he says he's under audit. The moderator, Lester Holt, corrects him: "You're perfectly free to release your taxes during an audit." Trump admits he's willing to release his tax returns "against my lawyers' wishes" — as soon as Clinton "releases her 33,000 deleted emails." Clinton pounces: "Why won't he release his tax returns?" Clinton suggests several reasons: "Maybe he's not as rich as he says he is. Maybe he's not as charitable as he claims to be." Or it could be about "conflicts of interest" having to do with his debts to foreign banks. Or that he's paid "nothing" in federal taxes. Trump: "That makes me smart!" He also says he'll "quickly" disclose a "list of banks."

9:39 — Trump says "politicians like Secretary Clinton" have caused us to "squander[]" $6 trillion in the Middle East.

9:40 — "I've met a lot of the people who were stiffed by your businesses, Donald" — people "you refused to pay when they finished the work you asked them to do." Trump says he might have had good reason for that: maybe they "didn't do a good job" and he was "unsatisfied with their work." Clinton pulls out a prepared line: "I'm glad my father didn't do business with you." And Trump does the same: "Trump International is way under budget and way ahead of schedule, and we should do that for our country."

9:45 — Holt changes the topic to race in America. Clinton generically calls for "criminal justice reform," which "good, brave police officers" also want. And deal with gun violence. Trump calls out Clinton for not using the words "law and order" — what we need to bring back in Chicago. He suggests "stop and frisk." Holt says "stop and frisk was ruled unconstitutional in New York because it singled out blacks and Hispanics," but Trump says he's wrong — New York City just dropped the lawsuit under its new mayor.

9:51 — Clinton says Trump's comments in his rallies "paint a really dire, negative picture of black communities."

9:54 — Holt asks Clinton if she thinks "implicit bias is a problem with police." She says yes, but the police want "retraining" to deal with the bias.

9:55 — The candidates finally agree on something: people on the no-fly list shouldn't be able to have guns.

9:56 — Trump says stop and frisk achieved Clinton's goal of reducing gun violence in NYC, but Clinton points out that murders have kept going down now that the program has ended. Trump flat out says, "You're wrong," and urges fact-checkers to check this.

9:59 — Trump is asked why it took him so long to admit that President Obama was born in the US. Trump focuses on how he got Obama to produce his birth certificate, but Holt asks why he waited 5 years after that happened in 2011. "I think I did a great job and a great service . . ." Clinton goes for the jugular: "He has tried to put this whole racist birther lie to bed. But it can't be dismissed that easily." She connects this with race-discrimination suits that have been brought against Trump's companies. Trump points out that he settled those suits "with no admission of guilt." And he reminds us that Clinton spoke of Obama "with terrible disrespect" in her 2008 primary campaign.

10:07 — Holt asks if Russia has been cyberattacking the US. Clinton says they have, and she "was so shocked when Donald invited Russia to launch cyberattacks against Americans." Trump says the cyberattacks could have come from "someone who weighs 400 pounds sitting on their bed"!

10:15 — The candidates go back and forth about whether Clinton and Obama are responsible for the growth of ISIS. Trump says ISIS "formed in a vacuum created by" Obama and Clinton — but Clinton emphasizes that George W. Bush is the one who set the timeline for us to withdraw from Iraq. Clinton points out that Trump supported the Iraq war, but Trump interjects: "Wrong! Wrong!" She also says Trump supported our Libya invasion — after doing business with Gaddafi. Trump has no response.

10:22 — Trump declares: "I have much better temperament than she does. . . . It might be one of my greatest assets: my temperament." People in the room watching this are flipping out: "Whoa! God!"

10:25 — Clinton accuses Trump of not caring if more countries get nuclear weapons — "Japan, South Korea, even Saudi Arabia." "That is the number-one threat we face in the world," especially if terrorists get their hands on them. Trump says terrorism is the number-one threat, and Clinton mistakenly thinks it's climate change.

10:28 — On nuclear weapons, Trump says: "I would certainly not do first strike." But we can't "take anything off the table."

10:30 — Clinton says Trump's campaign has "worried" world leaders about nukes, so she reassures them: "We have mutual defense treaties and we will honor them."

10:33 — Holt asks Trump what he meant by saying Clinton doesn't have a presidential "look." Trump responds: "She doesn't have the look — she doesn't have the stamina." He seems to regret repeating the word "look" — as Clinton points out, "he tried to switch from 'looks' to 'stamina.'" "As soon as he travels to 112 countries" — she describes what she did as Secretary of State — "he can talk to me about stamina."

Democrats and elections

Democrats during the 2008 general election: "Who cares about having a long record of experience? What really matters in a president is the ability to give soaring, inspiring speeches. And if you disagree then you're racist."

Democrats during the 2016 general election: "Who cares about soaring, inspiring speeches? What really matters is for the president to have a long record of experience. And if you disagree then you're sexist."

Live-blogging the last scheduled Democratic debate of 2016

I'll be blogging the debate here. Keep reloading this post for live updates.

As always, I'll be writing down what the candidates say without a pause/rewind button, so quotations in this post might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate, and I might correct some of them later.

This is a Univision debate, done partly in Spanish, and focusing on issues of particular concern to Hispanic Americans.

9:11 — Hillary Clinton is asked how she "failed" last night, when she lost Michigan. She doesn't answer the question. Instead, she points out that she got more total votes and delegates last night — in Michigan and Mississippi combined. When pressed to answer the question, she just says it was "close."

9:13 — Bernie Sanders is asked if he can "realistically catch up" to Clinton in delegates. He says last night in Michigan was "one of the major upsets in modern American political history." He says he'll continue to do "extremely well" — and convince super delegates to switch to him. [VIDEO.]

9:15 — Clinton is asked about her emails. She says her emails have been "retroactively classified" — and the same has been done to former Secretary of State Colin Powell's emails. Jorge Ramos, whose daughter works for the Clinton campaign, asks if she'll withdraw if she's indicted. "Oh, for goodness . . . ! It is not going to happen! I'm not even answering that question." [VIDEO.]

9:17 — Question to Clinton: "Is Donald Trump a racist?" She won't directly answer, but she takes credit for being the first candidate to say "¡Basta!" when Trump tarred illegal immigrants from Mexico as "rapists." "You don't make America great by getting rid of everything that made America great! . . . What he has promoted is not at all in keeping with American values."

9:20 — Bernie Sanders points out that his father immigrated to America from Poland, yet "nobody has ever asked me for my birth certificate." He points to his hand and says: "Maybe it has something to do with the color of my skin!"

9:25 — Clinton attacks Sanders for voting against the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, and for suggesting that it would lead to "modern-day slavery."

9:26 — Sanders claims that Clinton was against New York giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. I wonder how Clinton feels about this issue coming back to haunt her, after it played a pivotal role in leading to the downfall of her 2008 campaign.

9:34 — The moderator plays a clip of himself, earlier this year, asking Clinton if she'd promise not to deport immigrants without criminal records, particularly children. In the video, she didn't make that promise, and only said everyone should receive "due process." She says she disagrees with "the current administration" — "stop the raids, stop the roundups, stop the reporting of people who are living here, living their lives, doing their jobs." She finally does promise not to deport children or people without criminal records. "I do not want to see them deported; I want to see them on a path to citizenship."

9:39 — Sanders makes the same promises — but Clinton uses that as an opportunity to come back to Sanders's opposition to the 2007 bill. She says if the bill had passed, "a lot of discussions we're having today would be in the rear-view mirror."

9:41 — Clinton accuses Sanders of "supporting the Minutemen and their ridiculous, absurd efforts to hunt down immigrants." Sanders denies it.

9:44 — Clinton reprises her attack on Sanders for voting against the auto bailout, from the last debate. Sanders it wasn't an "auto bailout" — it was a "Wall Street bailout."

9:47 — Clinton is asked: "What is the difference between the wall that you voted for, and Donald Trump's wall?" In a possible preview of the general election, Clinton mocks Trump for proposing "a very tall wall — a beautiful tall wall — better than the great wall of China — that he would somehow, magically get the Mexican government to pay for! And it's just fantasy!"

9:51 — A mother who brought her 5 children to the debate asks a question, in Spanish (translated by a moderator), about the fact that her husband has been deported and can't see his family. Of course, Sanders and Clinton both say they're committed to stopping that kind of thing from happening. But Sanders's answer is relatively vague. Clinton gives a stronger answer, not just because she gives more policy specifics, but also because she starts by connecting with the woman on a more emotional level, praising her for her bravery: "This is an incredible act of courage that I'm not sure many people really understand." Clinton seems to have sharply observed her husband in a famous moment in one of the general-election debates in 1992, when incumbent President Bush gave a weak answer to a woman who asked about the national debt, and then Bill Clinton connected with the questioner in a way Bush hadn't:




Ironically, a few minutes later, Clinton candidly admits: "I am not a natural politician, in case you haven't noticed, like my husband or President Obama. . . ." [VIDEO.]

10:05 — They play a video of one of the Benghazi victims' loved ones saying Clinton told her one thing about the nature of the attack while telling her family something very different. Clinton flatly says: "She's wrong." Sanders refuses to discuss Benghazi. [VIDEO.]

10:22 — This debate has been pretty dull for a while now.

10:23 — After Clinton explains her plan for student debt, Sanders snarks: "What Secretary Clinton said is absolutely right. I think I said it many months before she said it! But thanks for copying a very good idea!" [VIDEO.]

10:25 — Clinton says Sanders's health-care plan will be way more expensive than he says. "As my dad used to say, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."

10:28 — The moderator says two dozen Florida mayors urged her to ask the candidates what they'd do about "the effects of rising sea levels and climate change in their communities," especially in Miami. Sanders calls out Trump and other Republicans for calling climate change "a hoax," which Sanders translates as: "We don't have the guts to stand up to the fossil-fuel industry." Clinton points out that she'll stick with Obama's executive actions in this area; a Republican president would undo them.

10:32 — Sanders keeps interrupting a lengthy answer by Clinton on climate change, while the moderator keeps telling Clinton, "Thank you!" (which is debate-speak for "Shut up!"). [VIDEO.] When Sanders finally gets to talk, he says: "You're looking at the Senator who introduced the most comprehensive climate-change legislation in the history of the United States Senate."

10:34 — Clinton says Sanders is "always criticizing" the two most recent Democratic presidents, and "that's fine," but he should criticize George W. Bush too. Sanders scoffs: "I gather Secretary Clinton hasn't listened to too many speeches, or followed my work in the Congress. . . . "

10:40 — The candidates are asked if they'd visit Cuba. Clinton makes a series of statements that are worded to sound strong without answering the question. Sanders calls for "normalized relations with Cuba."

10:43 — They show a video of Sanders, in 1985, saying Fidel Castro was being unfairly criticized, when he "educated their kids, gave them health care, totally transformed the society!" Sanders says this was about his opposition to invading Cuba or other Latin American countries. [VIDEO.]

10:47 — Clinton lambastes Sanders for saying, in another part of the 1985 video (which isn't shown), that Cuba brought about a "revolution of values." "When you disappear people, you imprison people, you even kill people, for expressing their opinions, for freedom of speech, that is not the kind of 'revolution of values' that I want to see anywhere!"

10:50 — When asked about the Supreme Court vacancy, Clinton reminds us of Bush v. Gore: "A court took away a presidency! Now we've got the Republican Congress trying to take away the Constitution!" As for what kind of Justice she'd like to see appointed, she says that Citizens United should be overruled and Roe v. Wade should remain "settled law." For some reason, Sanders doesn't get to address that issue.

And that's all for the Democratic primary debates in 2016.

Live-blogging the first Democratic debate after Super Tuesday, in Flint, Michigan

I'll be live-blogging the Democratic debate here. Keep reloading this post for more updates.

This is the last debate before the Michigan primary.

For more live-blogging, check out the Wall Street Journal, the Atlantic, and Variety.

As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly, so they might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate. If you need an exact quote, check the transcript.

8:01 — Bernie Sanders says what he's heard and seen in talking to the people of Flint, where the water is tainted by lead, "literally shattered" him.

8:03 — Hillary Clinton says she's glad they're having the debate in Flint, as she requested. Both candidates call on Michigan Governor Rick Snyder to resign.

8:06 — A Flint resident in the audience describes how she and her children have had to drive long distances to wash their fruit, brush their teeth, and drink water. She asks how she'll ever regain the trust of her government. Clinton: "Everything that is done has to be triple-checked to regain your trust."

8:08 — Sanders calls for the federal government to get involved in Flint. "You are paying more for poisoned water than I am paying in Burlington, Vermont, for clean water! First thing [we should] do is say people are not paying for poisoned water."

8:10 — Sanders sarcastically says: "Maybe we should let Wall Street come in and run Flint, because we know their honesty and integrity has done so much for America!"

8:15 — Anderson Cooper tells us the next audience member to ask a question was one of the first Flint residents to report a problem with the water — after her son stopped growing and her daughter lost her hair. She wants to know about what should be done about lead pipes throughout the country. Clinton says this was a higher priority in the Clinton administration.

8:17 — Clinton calls for "absolute accountability" for whoever's responsible — including "civil" or "criminal" liability.

8:24 — The candidates are asked what they'll do to keep jobs in Michigan, or bring back jobs there. Clinton calls for taxing companies that move jobs overseas. Sanders: "I am very glad that Secretary Clinton has discovered religion on this issue. But it's a little late." Sanders attacks her for supporting trade agreements like NAFTA. Clinton comes back: Sanders was against Obama's auto bailout, which "ended up saving the auto industry." Sanders retorts that Clinton supported "the Wall Street bailout — where some of your friends destroyed the economy!" Clinton interrupts, but Sanders snaps: "Excuse me, I'm talking!" Clinton shoots back: "Well, tell the whole story!" Sanders: "Let me tell my story — you tell yours!" Clinton: "I will!" The initial Kumbaya atmosphere of this debate has dissipated. [VIDEO.]

8:29 — Clinton calls Sanders a "one-issue candidate." Clinton knows "you have to make hard choices!" Sanders embraces the "one-issue candidate" label: "My one issue is trying to rebuild a disappearing middle class! That's my one issue!"

8:33 — Clinton lists the ways she was tough on Wall Street in 2008, including proposing a moratorium on foreclosures.

8:34 — Anderson Cooper brings up Clinton's "Shakespearean" statement that she'll release the transcript of her Wall Street speeches if all the other candidates do. Sanders points out that he's her one Democratic opponent, and he'll release all his speeches to Wall Street. He does it right then and there: "Here it is! There's nothing!" (Sanders is right — in the Democratic primaries, there's no reason for Clinton to condition her release of records on the Republican candidates' agreement.)

8:38 — Clinton lays down the gauntlet on the Export/Import Bank — she's for it, Sanders is against it. Anderson Cooper explains that the Export/Import Bank is "the federal agency that gives loans to companies that import/export American products." Sanders calls the Export/Import Bank "the Bank of Boeing." He explains that 75% of that money "goes to large corporations" — and the remaining 25% is only as large as it is because of a law that Sanders got passed. Cooper points out that Sanders agrees with Ted Cruz on the Export/Import Bank, but Sanders doesn't try to disavow that association: "I hate to break the bad news — Democrats are not always right! . . . Democrats have supported corporate welfare." [VIDEO.] Politico calls this "That time Bernie Sanders agreed with the Koch brothers."

8:44 — Somehow, the debate over the Import/Export Bank meanders into Sanders calling for European-style universal health care; Clinton says we've already gotten closer to that goal with Obamacare.

8:53 — Anderson Cooper introduces a man in the audience by showing us a photo of his 14-year-old daughter, and telling us the heart-wrenching story of how she was shot in a mass shooting in Kalamazoo, Michigan, wasn't expected to survive, but is now recovering. The dad (who's leaning toward Sanders) says his daughter has been laughing, which is great — but, of course, this never should have happened. He asks what they'd do to stop this kind of thing from happening, and asks them not to mention background checks or mental health, since the person who shot his daughter had a clear background and no mental illness. Clinton says we need to have more liability for gun makers and sellers. Sanders calls for expanded background checks — exactly what the dad said would not have stopped his daughter from being shot.

8:58 — Sanders raises the concern that if the law holds gun manufacturers liable for anyone who uses a gun to do a mass shooting, even if the shooter bought the gun legally, this could mean "ending gun manufacturing in America," which he disagrees with.

9:03 — Clinton grapples with a question about how she supported her husband's 1994 crime bill, which led to more incarceration. Don Lemon notes that as a black man, he statistically has a 1 in 3 chance of being incarcerated. Clinton points out that she and Sanders both voted for it. She says parts of the law "were a mistake," as Bill Clinton admitted last year in a speech to the NAACP. Lemon reads a quote from Sanders from 1994, warning of the horrible things that could result from it — so why did he vote for it? Sanders says his words were those of "a Congressman who was torn." He cleverly points out that if he had voted against it, Clinton would be saying: "Bernie Sanders voted against the assault-weapons ban! Bernie Sanders voted against the Violence Against Women Act!"

9:07 — A member of the audience begins his question by pointing out that opportunities often go disproportionately to "older Caucasian men and women." Sanders interrupts him with a self-effacing joke: "You're not talking about me, are ya?!" On a more serious note, Sanders says: "Most candidates wouldn't put this on their resume, but . . . I was arrested by the Chicago police for trying to desegregate the Chicago school system." [VIDEO.]

9:12 — Sanders is asked about his "racial blind spots." He says he was surprised to hear a colleague in Washington say he wasn't going to take a cab because the drivers pass him by because he's black. (That's always struck me as a somewhat tricky example of white privilege, since cab drivers aren't a group that's likely to be white and privileged — many are immigrants, for instance.)

9:16 — Don Lemon asks Clinton if she was wrong and used racially coded language in the '90s when she talked about "super predators." She says it was a "poor choice of words" and she wouldn't say it again — which doesn't really answer the question.

9:18 — Sanders criticizes Bill Clinton's welfare reform of 1996. Clinton responds: "If we're going to argue about the '90s, let's try to get the facts straight." She says she disagrees with how the law has been "applied." Sanders uses Clinton's reference to "the '90s" as a segue into railing against the financial deregulation of the '90s.

9:27 — An audience member asks about deteriorating public schools in Michigan. Sanders strikes a Rawlsian note: "A great nation is judged not by how many millionaires and billionaires it has, but how it treats the most vulnerable among us. . . . We should be ashamed of how we treat our kids and our senior citizens."

9:32 — Anderson Cooper asks Clinton if teachers' unions protect bad teachers, and the audience boos. Clinton says the problem is "scapegoating teachers" instead of increasing funding to schools. When Cooper follows up by asking if she agrees about unions protecting bad teachers, she gives an answer that's carefully worded to sound like she's unafraid to get tough on unions — without quite agreeing with Cooper's statement: she says we need to "look at this" and "eliminate that criticism."

9:37 — Clinton is asked about whether she supports fracking. She lists several requirements she would impose on any fracking, and concludes: "By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there are many places in America where fracking will take place." Sanders mocks Clinton's triangulating answer: "My answer is a lot shorter: No, I do not support fracking." (While Clinton's position is more complex, it also sounds more pragmatic and achievable.)

9:41 — Sanders says Clinton's Super PAC is "raising a huge amount of money — well, I hesitate to say 'YUGE'! . . . A lot of money from fossil-fuel companies." (Clinton seems to be trying not to laugh.) [VIDEO.]

9:50 — Anderson Cooper asks Clinton, if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, how she'll respond when he brings up her emails (as he's often done already, even in the primaries). Clinton seems a little coy and hesitant in responding. She starts by pointing out that Trump has won over 3 million votes — the most of any candidate except her. She talks about Trump's "bigotry and bluster," and repeats the line from her Super Tuesday speech: "We don't need to make America great again — America never stopped being great! We need to make America whole again." She doesn't address her emails. So I guess the answer is . . . that she'll have no answer to Trump. Maybe she just hasn't thought enough about her general-election strategy yet. Or maybe she does have a plan — and she doesn't want to tip her hand. (Thanks to a commenter for pointing out I had missed the crucial part about her emails — I went back and revised this.)

9:52 — Cooper points out that Trump has called Sanders "a Communist." "That was one of the nice things he said about me!" (Sanders, who has a pretty sharp sense of humor, has been on a roll in this debate — you could imagine Woody Allen saying that line.) Sanders says he almost always does better than Clinton in match-ups against Trump.

9:55 — Cooper asks Sanders about those who say he keeps his Judaism "in the background," to a fault. Sanders shakes his head. "I am very proud of being Jewish, and that is an essential part of who I am as a human being." "My father's family was wiped out by Hitler in the Holocaust." [VIDEO.]

9:57 — Clinton is asked about her faith. She quips: "I am a praying person — and if I hadn't been, by the time I was in the White House, I would have become one!"

10:00 — They're doing the closing statements. Sanders: "It is too late for establishment politics and establishment economics."

10:01 — Clinton uses her closing statement to anticipate the general election (with the obvious subtext that she's the likely nominee): "I don't intend to get into the gutter with whoever they nominate, but instead to lift our sights, set big goals, and make it clear that America's best days are still ahead of us."

"We got decimated. . . . We got killed."

Straight talk from Bernie Sanders.

Live-blogging the first Democratic debate after Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire

I'll be live-blogging tonight's Democratic debate here. This could be a particularly important one. It's coming just 2 days after Bernie Sanders had a historic win of more than 20 points in New Hampshire, so now's the time for Sanders to try to build his momentum — and for Hillary Clinton to try to shift the narrative that her campaign is faltering, isn't appealing to young people, etc.

Keep reloading this post for updates throughout the debate. As always, I'll be writing quotes on the fly, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate.

Check out more live-blogging at TPM and the New Republic.

9:06 — Bernie Sanders, in his opening statement, says we have "a broken criminal justice system." In the last Democratic debate, I pointed out that Hillary Clinton seemed to seize on Sanders's failure to bring up any race-related issues in his opening statement (see my update in the last live-blog at 9:06).

9:08 — In Hillary Clinton's opening statement, she also brings up "African-Americans, who face discrimination." This fits with her plan to focus on race after New Hampshire. She also brings up the canard that women are underpaid.

9:13 — Sanders says the federal government has "a vital role in making sure that all people have a decent standard of living."

9:14 — Clinton says Sanders's health-care plan includes "a promise that cannot be kept," according to "progressive economists." "The numbers just don't add up, and many people will be worse off than they are now." [VIDEO.]

9:14 — Sanders calls out Clinton for "going around the country" saying he's going to "dismantle" Medicare, Medicaid, etc. "We're not going to dismantle anything."

9:16 — Clinton says that before "universal-coverage health care" was called "Obamacare," it was called "Hillarycare." This might be the first time I've heard her proudly associate herself with the word "Hillarycare."

9:18 — Clinton strikes a relatively conservative note on health care: "The last thing we need is to throw the country into a contentious debate about health care again. We are not England. We are not France."

9:19 — Gwen Ifill, one of the moderators, tells Clinton she "may remember a State of the Union address" that said "The era of big government is over." Ifill doesn't specify which president said that. I wish the media would remember that not everyone who's following this presidential race has been following politics for decades. Some of the people who'll be voting were born in 1998 — before President Clinton said that line.

9:21 — After Clinton begins a sentence with, "When I am in the White House . . . ," Sanders shoots back: "Secretary Clinton, you're not in the White House yet!" [VIDEO.]

9:23 — Clinton ridicules Sanders's education plan by saying it assumes all governors, including the Republican Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, the former presidential candidate, will sign onto the plan. [VIDEO.]

9:24 — Sanders doesn't really address Clinton's point about his education plan. He just says he believes everyone has a right to a college education.

9:25 — In response to a question about why more women aren't supporting her, Clinton says she believes women have "a right to make choices — even if that choice is not to vote for me! . . . We need to empower everyone — women and men — to make the best decisions, in their mind, that they can make."

9:27 – Sanders falsely refers to "the absurdity of women today making 79 cents on the dollar compared to men." (See my link at 9:08.)

9:29 — Sanders says: "A Sanders victory would be some historical accomplishment as well." My mom, Ann Althouse, likes that statement and dislikes what Clinton said:

That was a bald-faced lie when she said she wasn't asking us to vote for her because she's a woman. I was walking away from the TV and the computer, but I had to come back to take note of that. Now that I'm here, I'll add that I liked what Bernie Sanders said when he was asked how he felt about standing in the way of a first woman President. He said that if he won, considering who he is, it would also be historic. He didn't specify why. He didn't say "first Jewish President" or "socialist!" It's up to us to fill in why.

9:36 — In a discussion about the high levels of blacks in prison, Clinton talks about how "young people — particularly young men — are pushed out of school early." As a Washington Post article has put it in response to one of Clinton's speeches:

She did not mention that the racial disparities are partly the result of policies embraced by her husband.

9:39 — Moderator Judy Woodruff says "hardly anyone" thinks race relations have improved during the Obama administration, and asks Clinton how she'd do better. Clinton rejects the premise, pointing out that Obamacare has particularly benefited blacks. She refers to "the dark side of the remaining systemic racism that we need to root out in our society." In a discussion of race, perhaps it's best to avoid using the word "dark" as a synonym for "evil."

9:41 — Sanders is asked if "race relations would be better under a Sanders administration than they've been" under the Obama administration. "Absolutely!" This is unsurprising: he thinks his policies would help the poor, and the poor are disproportionately black. [VIDEO.]

9:44 — Clinton says "it would be a terrible oversight not to address the terrible problems that white Americans" have had.

9:48 — Sanders: "I disagree with [Obama's] recent deportation policies." Clinton sides with Obama.

9:50 — Clinton: "Hopefully after the 2016 election, some of the Republicans will come to their sense and realize we are not going to deport 11 million people."

9:52 — Sanders on immigration: "We have got to stand up to the Trumps of the world, who are trying to divide us up."

9:54 — The candidates are exploring their disagreements over immigration legislation, but I'm not following all their distinctions, and I doubt this discussion will have much of an effect on most Democratic voters.

10:00 — Woodruff says about half (?) of Clinton's donations come from "just two wealthy financiers."

10:01 — Clinton says she's "proud" that she, Sanders, and Obama have had more donors than any other Democratic candidate. She's making a show of complimenting Sanders, but she's really trying to undercut his advantage by depicting the two of them as similar.

10:04 — Clinton points out that Obama got more Wall Street donations "than anybody on the Democratic side, ever," and it didn't affect his support for financial regulations. Sanders has a scathing response: "Let's not insult the intelligence of the American people! They're not dumb! Why does the financial industry spend huge amounts of money on campaign contributions? I guess, just for the fun of it! They just want to throw money around!" Sanders also rejects Clinton's suggestion that our current financial regulations have been effective — the big banks are even bigger today than in 2008. [VIDEO.]

10:16 Sanders is asked if there are "any areas of government [he'd] like to reduce." Sanders says yes. "Anybody who doesn't think there is an enormous amount of waste and bureaucracy and inefficiency in government would be very mistaken." He says the Department of Defense in particular should be "audited." Clinton agrees that some government programs should be "streamlined."

10:20 — The foreign policy part of the debate is off to a dull start, with Clinton describing how she'd fight ISIL, and how she'd be better at working with our Muslim allies than Donald Trump would be.

10:22 — Sanders points out that Obama's invasion of Libya, which Clinton was part of, led to a terrible dictator being overthrown but also led to ISIL taking over large parts of the country.

10:24 — Clinton says Sanders voted for regime change in Iraq and Libya, while Sanders vigorously shakes his head. Sanders denies it.

10:27 — Sanders says Clinton talks in her book about seeking "the support or the mentoring of Henry Kissinger." "Count me in as somebody who will not be listening to Henry Kissinger!" [VIDEO.]

10:29 — Clinton retorts: "I know journalists have asked who you do listen to on foreign policy, and we have yet to know!" She also points out that Kissinger opened up our relations with China. Clinton says, somewhat patronizingly, "It's a big, complicated world out there!" [VIDEO.]

10:40 — They have the same quibble over Iran that they had in the last debate.

10:43 — They're asked to name one American leader and one foreign leader who'd influence their foreign policy. Sanders says FDR for the American leader, and Winston Churchill for the foreign leader. Clinton agrees with Sanders on FDR, and says Nelson Mandela for the foreign leader. (Not very original choices by either of them.) Then she transitions into a rousing tribute to Obama (the culmination of her name-checking of him throughout the debate), and says she does not "expect" a Democrat to criticize Obama as much as Sanders has. Sanders seems incensed: "Madam Secretary, that is a low blow. . . . Have you ever disagreed with the president? I suspect you may have! . . . One of us ran against Barack Obama; I was not that candidate."