I voted for BernieSanders in the New York primary in 2016.
I do not intend to do so in 2020.
My vote for Sanders in 2016 was a protest against the lack of adequate competition. That doesn’t seem like it will be a problem this time.
Sen. Sanders says this while announcing on Vermont Public Radio that he's running for president:
"It turns out that many of the ideas that I talked about – that health care is a right, not a privilege, and that we've got to move toward a Medicare-for-all, single-payer system: very, very popular. The idea that we have got to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour," he told Vermont Public Radio. "When I talked about making public colleges and universities tuition-free and lowering student debt, that was another issue that people said was too radical. Well, that's also happening around the country. . . ."
Asked by Vermont Public Radio how he will pitch his candidacy in such a diverse and progressive field, Sanders argued, "We have got to look at candidates not by the color of their skin, not by their sexual orientation or gender, and not by their age. I think we have got to try to move us toward a nondiscriminatory society that looks at people based on their abilities, based on what they stand for."
Here are some highlights from Bernie Sanders in my live-blogging of the 2016 primary debates (I was writing this live, with no pause or rewind button, and I tried to make the quotes reasonably accurate but they weren't necessarily verbatim):
9:06 — [Anderson Cooper] asks Sanders if he's a capitalist. "Do I consider myself a
part of the casino-capitalist process? . . . No, I don't."
9:39 — Sanders is asked how he could be Commander in Chief after he applied for "conscientious objector" status during the Vietnam War.
"When I was a young man — I'm not a young man today — I strongly opposed the Vietnam War. . . . I am not a pacifist." [VIDEO.]
9:42 — Sanders is asked how high he'd raise taxes. He doesn't have an
"exact number," but it will be lower than the highest rate under
President Eisenhower — "I'm not that much of a socialist compared to
Eisenhower!" [VIDEO.]
9:53 — Sanders is asked how much "job loss" he'd find an "acceptable"
consequence of raising the minimum wage. Sanders vaguely acknowledges
that any policy will have some negative consequences, but he'll
"apologize to nobody" for supporting an increase to $15 an hour. For
some reason, he suggests that this will especially help to reduce
unemployment among black youths.
10:32 — Sanders calls to "end minimum sentencing" and legalize marijuana
at the federal level, so states can be free to legalize it.
10:54 — Sanders's closing statement is evocative of Larry David's impersonation of him: "We need a political revolution! . . . Turn off the TV! . . . Please become a part of the revolution!"
9:42 — Sanders goes on a diatribe against Wall Street. "Kid gets caught
with marijuana — that kid gets sent to jail. A Wall Street executive
destroys the entire economy — $5 billion settlement, no criminal
record."
9:49 — Sanders: "The business model of Wall Street is fraud."
9:14 — Sanders calls out [Hillary Clinton] for "going around the country" saying
he's going to "dismantle" Medicare, Medicaid, etc. "We're not going to
dismantle anything."
9:29 — Sanders says: "A Sanders victory would be some historical accomplishment as well."
10:43 — They're asked to name one American leader and one foreign leader
who'd influence their foreign policy. Sanders says FDR for the American
leader, and Winston Churchill for the foreign leader.
9:07 — A member of the audience begins his question by pointing out that
opportunities often go disproportionately to "older Caucasian men and
women." Sanders interrupts him with a self-effacing joke: "You're not
talking about me, are ya?!" On a more serious note, Sanders says:
"Most candidates wouldn't put this on their resume, but . . . I was
arrested by the Chicago police for trying to desegregate the Chicago
school system." [VIDEO.]
I've never understood it. Her only strong competition was a cranky, ill-informed 75-year-old self-proclaimed socialist yelling about revolution. The problem wasn't a lack of available alternatives: liberals pleaded with Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden to run, but for some reason, they didn't, even knowing they're old enough that this decision might close the door on ever becoming president. And it's hard to believe that Clinton's running mate, Tim Kaine, hadn't considered running for the 2016 nomination after being vetted by Obama in 2008.
In the end, Hillary Clinton proved herself to be a painfully mediocre candidate. It's one thing to lose toss-up states like Florida and Ohio, but the fact that she lost Pennsylvania and Michigan speaks volumes. This happened even though her campaign was far better funded and she was believed to be the only candidate with a serious get-out-the-vote operation.
When you consider how she failed at mastering the delegate game in the 2008 primaries, then went on to win her party's nomination only with bizarrely weak competition (and more narrowly against Bernie Sanders than anyone had excepted), then lost the general election to a historically unqualified candidate, the conclusion is clear: Hillary Clinton is just not a skilled politician. As she openly admitted during the campaign, she lacks the political gifts of Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. It's great that she's self-aware enough to realize that, but why didn't the Democratic Party as a whole realize it before it was too late?
2. Tonight was also not a great night for the idea that betting odds are a better predictor than polls. For most of the time (since mid-October, which is the earliest time that website goes back to), betting odds have said Rubio is the most likely Republican nominee. (Full disclosure: Those links go to Election Betting Odds, which was co-created by my friend Maxim Lott.)
Presumably the only way to stop Trump at this point would be to look toward a Cruz-Kasich ticket, but the upcoming primaries are mostly friendly territory for Trump — Cruz will win Utah and Kasich might have a shot in Wisconsin, but Trump will likely sweep the Mid-Atlantic states on 4/19 and 4/26 — New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and so forth. Even without Ohio, Trump still has a perfectly viable path to a majority, and nobody else does.
6. I find it interesting that Trump made a point, in his victory speech, to congratulate Rubio on running a "tough" campaign, called him "smart," and said he'll have a great future. I don't think Trump said a word about Jeb Bush when he dropped out on the night of South Carolina.
7. Did anyone predict, before the voting started, that the Republican race would come down to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich? Anyone at all, in the whole world?
8. Since Hillary Clinton seems to have won all 5 primaries and Trump won everything except Kasich's home state, we can now see that this Reason piece was right: "letting Trump speak is not merely the morally correct, philosophically consistent course of action: It's the tactically sound one as well." That article had prescient words the day before the primaries:
When the left stops Trump from speaking, Trump wins. He gets to tell his people that the forces of far-left activism and political correctness are trying to silence him. Implicitly, he is suggesting to his followers that when he becomes president, the tides will turn: see his promise to make it easier to sue newspapers for criticizing him. Trump supporters adore this shtick. Stop giving them ammunition.
As Bill Scher said on Twitter in response to the primary results:
Speculation: The visual of Bernie supporters disrupting Trump rallies offered a dismal picture of a Sanders-Trump general, fueling [Clinton] . . .
Takeaway: spend more time knocking doors for your candidate than protesting the other party's candidate
I'll be blogging the debate here. Keep reloading this post for live updates.
As always, I'll be writing down what the candidates say without a pause/rewind button, so quotations in this post might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate, and I might correct some of them later.
This is a Univision debate, done partly in Spanish, and focusing on issues of particular concern to Hispanic Americans.
9:11 — Hillary Clinton is asked how she "failed" last night, when she lost Michigan. She doesn't answer the question. Instead, she points out that she got more total votes and delegates last night — in Michigan and Mississippi combined. When pressed to answer the question, she just says it was "close."
9:13 — Bernie Sanders is asked if he can "realistically catch up" to Clinton in delegates. He says last night in Michigan was "one of the major upsets in modern American political history." He says he'll continue to do "extremely well" — and convince super delegates to switch to him. [VIDEO.]
9:15 — Clinton is asked about her emails. She says her emails have been "retroactively classified" — and the same has been done to former Secretary of State Colin Powell's emails. Jorge Ramos, whose daughter works for the Clinton campaign, asks if she'll withdraw if she's indicted. "Oh, for goodness . . . ! It is not going to happen! I'm not even answering that question." [VIDEO.]
9:17 — Question to Clinton: "Is Donald Trump a racist?" She won't directly answer, but she takes credit for being the first candidate to say "¡Basta!" when Trump tarred illegal immigrants from Mexico as "rapists." "You don't make America great by getting rid of everything that made America great! . . . What he has promoted is not at all in keeping with American values."
9:20 — Bernie Sanders points out that his father immigrated to America from Poland, yet "nobody has ever asked me for my birth certificate." He points to his hand and says: "Maybe it has something to do with the color of my skin!"
9:25 — Clinton attacks Sanders for voting against the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, and for suggesting that it would lead to "modern-day slavery."
9:26 — Sanders claims that Clinton was against New York giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. I wonder how Clinton feels about this issue coming back to haunt her, after it played a pivotal role in leading to the downfall of her 2008 campaign.
9:34 — The moderator plays a clip of himself, earlier this year, asking Clinton if she'd promise not to deport immigrants without criminal records, particularly children. In the video, she didn't make that promise, and only said everyone should receive "due process." She says she disagrees with "the current administration" — "stop the raids, stop the roundups, stop the reporting of people who are living here, living their lives, doing their jobs." She finally does promise not to deport children or people without criminal records. "I do not want to see them deported; I want to see them on a path to citizenship."
9:39 — Sanders makes the same promises — but Clinton uses that as an opportunity to come back to Sanders's opposition to the 2007 bill. She says if the bill had passed, "a lot of discussions we're having today would be in the rear-view mirror."
9:41 — Clinton accuses Sanders of "supporting the Minutemen and their ridiculous, absurd efforts to hunt down immigrants." Sanders denies it.
9:44 — Clinton reprises her attack on Sanders for voting against the auto bailout, from the last debate. Sanders it wasn't an "auto bailout" — it was a "Wall Street bailout."
9:47 — Clinton is asked: "What is the difference between the wall that you voted for, and Donald Trump's wall?" In a possible preview of the general election, Clinton mocks Trump for proposing "a very tall wall — a beautiful tall wall — better than the great wall of China — that he would somehow, magically get the Mexican government to pay for! And it's just fantasy!"
9:51 — A mother who brought her 5 children to the debate asks a question, in Spanish (translated by a moderator), about the fact that her husband has been deported and can't see his family. Of course, Sanders and Clinton both say they're committed to stopping that kind of thing from happening. But Sanders's answer is relatively vague. Clinton gives a stronger answer, not just because she gives more policy specifics, but also because she starts by connecting with the woman on a more emotional level, praising her for her bravery: "This is an incredible act of courage that I'm not sure many people really understand." Clinton seems to have sharply observed her husband in a famous moment in one of the general-election debates in 1992, when incumbent President Bush gave a weak answer to a woman who asked about the national debt, and then Bill Clinton connected with the questioner in a way Bush hadn't:
Ironically, a few minutes later, Clinton candidly admits: "I am not a natural politician, in case you haven't noticed, like my husband or President Obama. . . ." [VIDEO.]
10:05 — They play a video of one of the Benghazi victims' loved ones saying Clinton told her one thing about the nature of the attack while telling her family something very different. Clinton flatly says: "She's wrong." Sanders refuses to discuss Benghazi. [VIDEO.]
10:22 — This debate has been pretty dull for a while now.
10:23 — After Clinton explains her plan for student debt, Sanders snarks: "What Secretary Clinton said is absolutely right. I think I said it many months before she said it! But thanks for copying a very good idea!" [VIDEO.]
10:25 — Clinton says Sanders's health-care plan will be way more expensive than he says. "As my dad used to say, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."
10:28 — The moderator says two dozen Florida mayors urged her to ask the candidates what they'd do about "the effects of rising sea levels and climate change in their communities," especially in Miami. Sanders calls out Trump and other Republicans for calling climate change "a hoax," which Sanders translates as: "We don't have the guts to stand up to the fossil-fuel industry." Clinton points out that she'll stick with Obama's executive actions in this area; a Republican president would undo them.
10:32 — Sanders keeps interrupting a lengthy answer by Clinton on climate change, while the moderator keeps telling Clinton, "Thank you!" (which is debate-speak for "Shut up!"). [VIDEO.] When Sanders finally gets to talk, he says: "You're looking at the Senator who introduced the most comprehensive climate-change legislation in the history of the United States Senate."
10:34 — Clinton says Sanders is "always criticizing" the two most recent Democratic presidents, and "that's fine," but he should criticize George W. Bush too. Sanders scoffs: "I gather Secretary Clinton hasn't listened to too many speeches, or followed my work in the Congress. . . . "
10:40 — The candidates are asked if they'd visit Cuba. Clinton makes a series of statements that are worded to sound strong without answering the question. Sanders calls for "normalized relations with Cuba."
10:43 — They show a video of Sanders, in 1985, saying Fidel Castro was being unfairly criticized, when he "educated their kids, gave them health care, totally transformed the society!" Sanders says this was about his opposition to invading Cuba or other Latin American countries. [VIDEO.]
10:47 — Clinton lambastes Sanders for saying, in another part of the 1985 video (which isn't shown), that Cuba brought about a "revolution of values." "When you disappear people, you imprison people, you even kill people, for expressing their opinions, for freedom of speech, that is not the kind of 'revolution of values' that I want to see anywhere!"
10:50 — When asked about the Supreme Court vacancy, Clinton reminds us of Bush v. Gore: "A court took away a presidency! Now we've got the Republican Congress trying to take away the Constitution!" As for what kind of Justice she'd like to see appointed, she says that Citizens United should be overruled and Roe v. Wade should remain "settled law." For some reason, Sanders doesn't get to address that issue.
And that's all for the Democratic primary debates in 2016.
As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly, so they might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate. If you need an exact quote, check the transcript.
8:01 — Bernie Sanders says what he's heard and seen in talking to the people of Flint, where the water is tainted by lead, "literally shattered" him.
8:03 — Hillary Clinton says she's glad they're having the debate in Flint, as she requested. Both candidates call on Michigan Governor Rick Snyder to resign.
8:06 — A Flint resident in the audience describes how she and her children have had to drive long distances to wash their fruit, brush their teeth, and drink water. She asks how she'll ever regain the trust of her government. Clinton: "Everything that is done has to be triple-checked to regain your trust."
8:08 — Sanders calls for the federal government to get involved in Flint. "You are paying more for poisoned water than I am paying in Burlington, Vermont, for clean water! First thing [we should] do is say people are not paying for poisoned water."
8:10 — Sanders sarcastically says: "Maybe we should let Wall Street come in and run Flint, because we know their honesty and integrity has done so much for America!"
8:15 — Anderson Cooper tells us the next audience member to ask a question was one of the first Flint residents to report a problem with the water — after her son stopped growing and her daughter lost her hair. She wants to know about what should be done about lead pipes throughout the country. Clinton says this was a higher priority in the Clinton administration.
8:17 — Clinton calls for "absolute accountability" for whoever's responsible — including "civil" or "criminal" liability.
8:24 — The candidates are asked what they'll do to keep jobs in Michigan, or bring back jobs there. Clinton calls for taxing companies that move jobs overseas. Sanders: "I am very glad that Secretary Clinton has discovered religion on this issue. But it's a little late." Sanders attacks her for supporting trade agreements like NAFTA. Clinton comes back: Sanders was against Obama's auto bailout, which "ended up saving the auto industry." Sanders retorts that Clinton supported "the Wall Street bailout — where some of your friends destroyed the economy!" Clinton interrupts, but Sanders snaps: "Excuse me, I'm talking!" Clinton shoots back: "Well, tell the whole story!" Sanders: "Let me tell my story — you tell yours!" Clinton: "I will!" The initial Kumbaya atmosphere of this debate has dissipated. [VIDEO.]
8:29 — Clinton calls Sanders a "one-issue candidate." Clinton knows "you have to make hard choices!" Sanders embraces the "one-issue candidate" label: "My one issue is trying to rebuild a disappearing middle class! That's my one issue!"
8:33 — Clinton lists the ways she was tough on Wall Street in 2008, including proposing a moratorium on foreclosures.
8:34 — Anderson Cooper brings up Clinton's "Shakespearean" statement that she'll release the transcript of her Wall Street speeches if all the other candidates do. Sanders points out that he's her one Democratic opponent, and he'll release all his speeches to Wall Street. He does it right then and there: "Here it is! There's nothing!" (Sanders is right — in the Democratic primaries, there's no reason for Clinton to condition her release of records on the Republican candidates' agreement.)
8:38 — Clinton lays down the gauntlet on the Export/Import Bank — she's for it, Sanders is against it. Anderson Cooper explains that the Export/Import Bank is "the federal agency that gives loans to companies that import/export American products." Sanders calls the Export/Import Bank "the Bank of Boeing." He explains that 75% of that money "goes to large corporations" — and the remaining 25% is only as large as it is because of a law that Sanders got passed. Cooper points out that Sanders agrees with Ted Cruz on the Export/Import Bank, but Sanders doesn't try to disavow that association: "I hate to break the bad news — Democrats are not always right! . . . Democrats have supported corporate welfare." [VIDEO.] Politico calls this "That time Bernie Sanders agreed with the Koch brothers."
8:44 — Somehow, the debate over the Import/Export Bank meanders into Sanders calling for European-style universal health care; Clinton says we've already gotten closer to that goal with Obamacare.
8:53 — Anderson Cooper introduces a man in the audience by showing us a photo of his 14-year-old daughter, and telling us the heart-wrenching story of how she was shot in a mass shooting in Kalamazoo, Michigan, wasn't expected to survive, but is now recovering. The dad (who's leaning toward Sanders) says his daughter has been laughing, which is great — but, of course, this never should have happened. He asks what they'd do to stop this kind of thing from happening, and asks them not to mention background checks or mental health, since the person who shot his daughter had a clear background and no mental illness. Clinton says we need to have more liability for gun makers and sellers. Sanders calls for expanded background checks — exactly what the dad said would not have stopped his daughter from being shot.
8:58 — Sanders raises the concern that if the law holds gun manufacturers liable for anyone who uses a gun to do a mass shooting, even if the shooter bought the gun legally, this could mean "ending gun manufacturing in America," which he disagrees with.
9:03 — Clinton grapples with a question about how she supported her husband's 1994 crime bill, which led to more incarceration. Don Lemon notes that as a black man, he statistically has a 1 in 3 chance of being incarcerated. Clinton points out that she and Sanders both voted for it. She says parts of the law "were a mistake," as Bill Clinton admitted last year in a speech to the NAACP. Lemon reads a quote from Sanders from 1994, warning of the horrible things that could result from it — so why did he vote for it? Sanders says his words were those of "a Congressman who was torn." He cleverly points out that if he had voted against it, Clinton would be saying: "Bernie Sanders voted against the assault-weapons ban! Bernie Sanders voted against the Violence Against Women Act!"
9:07 — A member of the audience begins his question by pointing out that opportunities often go disproportionately to "older Caucasian men and women." Sanders interrupts him with a self-effacing joke: "You're not talking about me, are ya?!" On a more serious note, Sanders says: "Most candidates wouldn't put this on their resume, but . . . I was arrested by the Chicago police for trying to desegregate the Chicago school system." [VIDEO.]
9:12 — Sanders is asked about his "racial blind spots." He says he was surprised to hear a colleague in Washington say he wasn't going to take a cab because the drivers pass him by because he's black. (That's always struck me as a somewhat tricky example of white privilege, since cab drivers aren't a group that's likely to be white and privileged — many are immigrants, for instance.)
9:16 — Don Lemon asks Clinton if she was wrong and used racially coded language in the '90s when she talked about "super predators." She says it was a "poor choice of words" and she wouldn't say it again — which doesn't really answer the question.
9:18 — Sanders criticizes Bill Clinton's welfare reform of 1996. Clinton responds: "If we're going to argue about the '90s, let's try to get the facts straight." She says she disagrees with how the law has been "applied." Sanders uses Clinton's reference to "the '90s" as a segue into railing against the financial deregulation of the '90s.
9:27 — An audience member asks about deteriorating public schools in Michigan. Sanders strikes a Rawlsian note: "A great nation is judged not by how many millionaires and billionaires it has, but how it treats the most vulnerable among us. . . . We should be ashamed of how we treat our kids and our senior citizens."
9:32 — Anderson Cooper asks Clinton if teachers' unions protect bad teachers, and the audience boos. Clinton says the problem is "scapegoating teachers" instead of increasing funding to schools. When Cooper follows up by asking if she agrees about unions protecting bad teachers, she gives an answer that's carefully worded to sound like she's unafraid to get tough on unions — without quite agreeing with Cooper's statement: she says we need to "look at this" and "eliminate that criticism."
9:37 — Clinton is asked about whether she supports fracking. She lists several requirements she would impose on any fracking, and concludes: "By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there are many places in America where fracking will take place." Sanders mocks Clinton's triangulating answer: "My answer is a lot shorter: No, I do not support fracking." (While Clinton's position is more complex, it also sounds more pragmatic and achievable.)
9:41 — Sanders says Clinton's Super PAC is "raising a huge amount of money — well, I hesitate to say 'YUGE'! . . . A lot of money from fossil-fuel companies." (Clinton seems to be trying not to laugh.) [VIDEO.]
9:50 — Anderson Cooper asks Clinton, if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, how she'll respond when he brings up her emails (as he's often done already, even in the primaries). Clinton seems a little coy and hesitant in responding. She starts by pointing out that Trump has won over 3 million votes — the most of any candidate except her. She talks about Trump's "bigotry and bluster," and repeats the line from her Super Tuesday speech: "We don't need to make America great again — America never stopped being great! We need to make America whole again." She doesn't address her emails. So I guess the answer is . . . that she'll have no answer to Trump. Maybe she just hasn't thought enough about her general-election strategy yet. Or maybe she does have a plan — and she doesn't want to tip her hand. (Thanks to a commenter for pointing out I had missed the crucial part about her emails — I went back and revised this.)
9:52 — Cooper points out that Trump has called Sanders "a Communist." "That was one of the nice things he said about me!" (Sanders, who has a pretty sharp sense of humor, has been on a roll in this debate — you could imagine Woody Allen saying that line.) Sanders says he almost always does better than Clinton in match-ups against Trump.
9:55 — Cooper asks Sanders about those who say he keeps his Judaism "in the background," to a fault. Sanders shakes his head. "I am very proud of being Jewish, and that is an essential part of who I am as a human being." "My father's family was wiped out by Hitler in the Holocaust." [VIDEO.]
9:57 — Clinton is asked about her faith. She quips: "I am a praying person — and if I hadn't been, by the time I was in the White House, I would have become one!"
10:00 — They're doing the closing statements. Sanders: "It is too late for establishment politics and establishment economics."
10:01 — Clinton uses her closing statement to anticipate the general election (with the obvious subtext that she's the likely nominee): "I don't intend to get into the gutter with whoever they nominate, but instead to lift our sights, set big goals, and make it clear that America's best days are still ahead of us."
I'll be live-blogging tonight's Democratic debate here. This could be a particularly important one. It's coming just 2 days after Bernie Sanders had a historic win of more than 20 points in New Hampshire, so now's the time for Sanders to try to build his momentum — and for Hillary Clinton to try to shift the narrative that her campaign is faltering, isn't appealing to young people, etc.
Keep reloading this post for updates throughout the debate. As always, I'll be writing quotes on the fly, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate.
9:06 — Bernie Sanders, in his opening statement, says we have "a broken criminal justice system." In the last Democratic debate, I pointed out that Hillary Clinton seemed to seize on Sanders's failure to bring up any race-related issues in his opening statement (see my update in the last live-blog at 9:06).
9:08 — In Hillary Clinton's opening statement, she also brings up "African-Americans, who face discrimination." This fits with her plan to focus on race after New Hampshire. She also brings up the canard that women are underpaid.
9:13 — Sanders says the federal government has "a vital role in making sure that all people have a decent standard of living."
9:14 — Clinton says Sanders's health-care plan includes "a promise that cannot be kept," according to "progressive economists." "The numbers just don't add up, and many people will be worse off than they are now." [VIDEO.]
9:14 — Sanders calls out Clinton for "going around the country" saying he's going to "dismantle" Medicare, Medicaid, etc. "We're not going to dismantle anything."
9:16 — Clinton says that before "universal-coverage health care" was called "Obamacare," it was called "Hillarycare." This might be the first time I've heard her proudly associate herself with the word "Hillarycare."
9:18 — Clinton strikes a relatively conservative note on health care: "The last thing we need is to throw the country into a contentious debate about health care again. We are not England. We are not France."
9:19 — Gwen Ifill, one of the moderators, tells Clinton she "may remember a State of the Union address" that said "The era of big government is over." Ifill doesn't specify which president said that. I wish the media would remember that not everyone who's following this presidential race has been following politics for decades. Some of the people who'll be voting were born in 1998 — before President Clinton said that line.
9:21 — After Clinton begins a sentence with, "When I am in the White House . . . ," Sanders shoots back: "Secretary Clinton, you're not in the White House yet!" [VIDEO.]
9:23 — Clinton ridicules Sanders's education plan by saying it assumes all governors, including the Republican Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, the former presidential candidate, will sign onto the plan. [VIDEO.]
9:24 — Sanders doesn't really address Clinton's point about his education plan. He just says he believes everyone has a right to a college education.
9:25 — In response to a question about why more women aren't supporting her, Clinton says she believes women have "a right to make choices — even if that choice is not to vote for me! . . . We need to empower everyone — women and men — to make the best decisions, in their mind, that they can make."
9:27 – Sanders falsely refers to "the absurdity of women today making 79 cents on the dollar compared to men." (See my link at 9:08.)
That was a bald-faced lie when she said she wasn't asking us to vote for her because she's a woman. I was walking away from the TV and the computer, but I had to come back to take note of that. Now that I'm here, I'll add that I liked what Bernie Sanders said when he was asked how he felt about standing in the way of a first woman President. He said that if he won, considering who he is, it would also be historic. He didn't specify why. He didn't say "first Jewish President" or "socialist!" It's up to us to fill in why.
9:36 — In a discussion about the high levels of blacks in prison, Clinton talks about how "young people — particularly young men — are pushed out of school early." As a Washington Post article has put it in response to one of Clinton's speeches:
9:39 — Moderator Judy Woodruff says "hardly anyone" thinks race relations have improved during the Obama administration, and asks Clinton how she'd do better. Clinton rejects the premise, pointing out that Obamacare has particularly benefited blacks. She refers to "the dark side of the remaining systemic racism that we need to root out in our society." In a discussion of race, perhaps it's best to avoid using the word "dark" as a synonym for "evil."
9:41 — Sanders is asked if "race relations would be better under a Sanders administration than they've been" under the Obama administration. "Absolutely!" This is unsurprising: he thinks his policies would help the poor, and the poor are disproportionately black. [VIDEO.]
9:44 — Clinton says "it would be a terrible oversight not to address the terrible problems that white Americans" have had.
9:48 — Sanders: "I disagree with [Obama's] recent deportation policies." Clinton sides with Obama.
9:50 — Clinton: "Hopefully after the 2016 election, some of the Republicans will come to their sense and realize we are not going to deport 11 million people."
9:52 — Sanders on immigration: "We have got to stand up to the Trumps of the world, who are trying to divide us up."
9:54 — The candidates are exploring their disagreements over immigration legislation, but I'm not following all their distinctions, and I doubt this discussion will have much of an effect on most Democratic voters.
10:00 — Woodruff says about half (?) of Clinton's donations come from "just two wealthy financiers."
10:01 — Clinton says she's "proud" that she, Sanders, and Obama have had more donors than any other Democratic candidate. She's making a show of complimenting Sanders, but she's really trying to undercut his advantage by depicting the two of them as similar.
10:04 — Clinton points out that Obama got more Wall Street donations "than anybody on the Democratic side, ever," and it didn't affect his support for financial regulations. Sanders has a scathing response: "Let's not insult the intelligence of the American people! They're not dumb! Why does the financial industry spend huge amounts of money on campaign contributions? I guess, just for the fun of it! They just want to throw money around!" Sanders also rejects Clinton's suggestion that our current financial regulations have been effective — the big banks are even bigger today than in 2008. [VIDEO.]
10:16 Sanders is asked if there are "any areas of government [he'd] like to reduce." Sanders says yes. "Anybody who doesn't think there is an enormous amount of waste and bureaucracy and inefficiency in government would be very mistaken." He says the Department of Defense in particular should be "audited." Clinton agrees that some government programs should be "streamlined."
10:20 — The foreign policy part of the debate is off to a dull start, with Clinton describing how she'd fight ISIL, and how she'd be better at working with our Muslim allies than Donald Trump would be.
10:22 — Sanders points out that Obama's invasion of Libya, which Clinton was part of, led to a terrible dictator being overthrown but also led to ISIL taking over large parts of the country.
10:24 — Clinton says Sanders voted for regime change in Iraq and Libya, while Sanders vigorously shakes his head. Sanders denies it.
10:27 — Sanders says Clinton talks in her book about seeking "the support or the mentoring of Henry Kissinger." "Count me in as somebody who will not be listening to Henry Kissinger!" [VIDEO.]
10:29 — Clinton retorts: "I know journalists have asked who you do listen to on foreign policy, and we have yet to know!" She also points out that Kissinger opened up our relations with China. Clinton says, somewhat patronizingly, "It's a big, complicated world out there!" [VIDEO.]
10:40 — They have the same quibble over Iran that they had in the last debate.
10:43 — They're asked to name one American leader and one foreign leader who'd influence their foreign policy. Sanders says FDR for the American leader, and Winston Churchill for the foreign leader. Clinton agrees with Sanders on FDR, and says Nelson Mandela for the foreign leader. (Not very original choices by either of them.) Then she transitions into a rousing tribute to Obama (the culmination of her name-checking of him throughout the debate), and says she does not "expect" a Democrat to criticize Obama as much as Sanders has. Sanders seems incensed: "Madam Secretary, that is a low blow. . . . Have you ever disagreed with the president? I suspect you may have! . . . One of us ran against Barack Obama; I was not that candidate."
I'll be live-blogging tonight's Democratic debate — the first debate since the Iowa caucuses revealed how close the race is between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, and the only Democratic debate between then and the New Hampshire primary.
Keep reloading this post for more updates. For more live-blogging, check out TPM.
9:03 — This is the first debate with just the two of them. Unlike in previous debates, when each candidate would walk out one by one, this time we see them both walking toward the camera, side by side.
9:05 — Sanders gives an opening statement hitting his familiar notes: the economy is "rigged"; campaign finance is "corrupt."
9:06 — In her opening statement, Clinton says "yes, of course" those things Sanders said are true — but we also need to focus on racism, sexism, and discrimination against LGBT people (implying that Sanders is less concerned about those issues since he didn't mention them in his opening statement).
9:07 — Clinton says she and Sanders "share big progressive goals." But she doesn't "believe in free college." This is an implicit response to Sanders's recent comments that Clinton can't call herself both "progressive" and "moderate." She cleverly argues that "a progressive is someone who makes progress," and Sanders's agenda isn't "achievable."
9:11 — Clinton repeats her usual argument that she'd "improve" Obamacare, but Sanders would scrap the system. Sanders points out that he participated in writing Obamacare — "The idea that I would dismantle health care in America, while we're getting ready to have Medicare for all, is just not accurate."
9:14 — Clinton lists other Democrats who wouldn't be considered "progressive" under Sanders's definition — including Obama, Biden, and Senator Paul Wellstone (who died in 2002) — because Wellstone "voted for DOMA." The point about Wellstone and DOMA seems like an odd one for Clinton to make. The Defense of Marriage Act is now universally reviled among liberals, and Clinton has to worry that Democratic primary voters will be turned off by the fact that she used to be passionately opposed to same-sex marriage, and was pretty late in coming around to the right position.
9:22 — Rachel Maddow asks Sanders about the fact that he's not really a Democrat. Sanders proudly declares: "I am the longest-serving independent in the history of the United States Congress." Maddow says Sanders was a spoiler in a race in the '80s that was won by a Republican, but Sanders points out that he only lost that race by a few points — "the Democrat was the spoiler!"
9:25 — Sanders says "almost the entire establishment" is supporting Clinton, while millions of "people" have supported Sanders by giving him contributions averaging $27. Clinton says Sanders is the only person who'd describe Clinton as "exemplifying the establishment" when she's "a woman running to be the first woman president."
9:28 — Clinton says "it's time" to end Sanders's "artful smear" and "innuendo" about her donations and speaking fees from Wall Street. "If you've got something to say, say it, directly!" The audience gets riled up, going "Ooooh!" when Clinton says the word "smear." [VIDEO.]
9:31 — Clinton says Sanders voted for financial deregulation in 2000 which led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Apparently she realized that she's seemed too defensive on this issue and she needed to go on the offensive.
9:40 — Clinton is asked again about her Wall Street speaking fees. She says Wall Street clearly knows where she stands since Wall Street has been spending millions of dollars against her primary campaign, at which point Sanders rolls his eyes.
9:42 — Sanders goes on a diatribe against Wall Street. "Kid gets caught with marijuana — that kid gets sent to jail. A Wall Street executive destroys the entire economy — $5 billion settlement, no criminal record."
9:43 — Clinton tries to move to Sanders's left by saying she'd "take us further" in taking action against "corporate power."
9:46 — Chuck Todd asks Clinton if she's release all the transcripts of all her paid speeches. Clinton seems slightly little taken aback by that sweeping request, which she quickly brushes off — "I don't know, I'll look into it" — before using the rest of her time to get back to her talking points.
Bill Scher responds to the question about transcripts of Clinton's speeches:
Pro-tip: conspiracies don't have transcripts
9:49 — Sanders: "The business model of Wall Street is fraud."
9:57 — Clinton says it's "off the table" to deploy ground troops against ISIL. She agrees with President Obama's current strategy except that she'd give "more support for the people on the ground."
9:59 — Sanders "agree[s] with much" of what Clinton said about ISIL. In fact, he doesn't suggest that there's any difference between them on that. Instead, he switches to reminding us that he was against the Iraq war and Clinton voted for it.
10:00 — Todd asks Sanders how long he'd leave the 10,000 troops in Afghanistan which Obama will leave for him. He doesn't specifically answer the question. He goes back to talking about ISIL, saying we need "Muslim troops on the ground" to fight ISIL; American ground troops would be targets.
10:02 — Clinton gets into a lot more details of what's going on in Afghanistan. She also doesn't give a specific answer about how long she'd leave our troops there, but her answer on Afghanistan sounds much more impressive than Sanders's.
10:03 — Todd asks Sanders why foreign policy doesn't seem to be one of his big issues, and why he hasn't given a major foreign-policy speech. "I gave a speech about democratic socialism and foreign policy. Maybe I shouldn't have combined the two of them into the same speech!" Only the former part got any attention.
10:06 — Clinton brings up a couple of Sanders's past statements on foreign policy and says they're very questionable. Clinton says it's "not acceptable" for Sanders to say "I'll get to that when I can." Sanders: "I fully concede that Secretary Clinton, who was Secretary of State for 4 years, has more experience . . . on foreign affairs." But Sanders again reminds us . . . she voted for the Iraq war.
10:10 — Sanders bring up Clinton's dispute with Obama from 2008 about whether to "talk to our enemies." Clinton says she's going to "correct the record": the question in 2008 was about whether to meet with them "without conditions." It's unusual to see Clinton (implicitly) criticizing Obama like that now, 8 years later. Clinton points out that the Obama administration talked with Iran only after satisfying various conditions — effectively saying "Told ya!" to Obama.
10:14 — Clinton refers to the Iran deal with an incomprehensible string of jargon: "That's an enforcement consequence action-for-action follow-on."
10:18 — Sanders reels off his accomplishments on veterans' issues. This seems like an implicit comeback to Clinton's line that only she can get things done.
Everyone who says Elizabeth Warren would be winning this primary, ask yourself how she'd be doing with these foreign policy questions
10:25 — Sanders is asked about the results in Iowa, and Sanders emphasizes that he got 20 delegates to Clinton's 22 — and they need about 2,500 to get the nomination. "This is not the biggest deal in the world." He does point out that some of the results were based on coin flips, but he hastens to add: "I love and respect the caucus process in Iowa. And I don't have to say it, because they've already voted! And I love the New Hampshire primary, because they haven't voted yet!"
10:27 — In response to a question for Sanders about how he'd do in the general election, he cites some general-election polls that have him doing much better than Clinton against Donald Trump.
10:29 — Clinton tells Sanders she's "thrilled by the numbers of people . . . who are coming to support your campaign," which is a little hard to believe. As for the general election, Clinton says: "I've been vetted. There's hardly anything you don't know about me."
10:33 — Todd asks Clinton if she's "100% confident that nothing is going to come" of the FBI investigation into her email practices. Clinton says yes, "I'm 100% confident! . . . This just beggars the imagination!"
10:34 — Todd asks Sanders if he still feels the same way about Clinton's emails as he did in the first debate, when he famously said: "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails!" Sanders says: "I'm feeling exactly how I felt at the first debate. There's a process underway — I will not politicize it."
10:41 — Clinton is asked if she still supports the death penalty. She says she does, but she has much more confidence in it at the federal level than the state level. As an example, she says she's glad that Timothy McVeigh was executed for blowing up 168 people, "including 19 children in a day-care center."
10:43 — Sanders is firmly against the death penalty: "There is so much killing out there. I don't believe that government should be part of the killing. . . . We should lock them up and throw away the key."
10:47 — Todd points out that Clinton has taken stands against trade agreements (NAFTA and the TPP) while campaigning in 2016 and 2008, but has supported them at other times. And Todd points out that Sanders has "never supported a trade deal" in the decades he's been in Congress! Sanders says he believes in "trade" — but not "free trade."
10:56 — Todd asks Clinton which of three issues she'd prioritize — immigration, guns, or climate change. "History shows, whichever you pick first, you have the best shot of getting." Clinton simply rejects that premise. Sanders says Todd missed the most important issue: campaign finance reform.
11:00 — Maddow asks Clinton if she'd eliminate any government agencies — or create any new ones. Clinton says no, she'd just make the existing ones work better.
11:02 — Todd asks Clinton if she'd pick Sanders as her running mate — which is a dumb question, since she's obviously not going to answer it. But if she is the nominee, "the first person" she'll call "will be Senator Sanders."
11:04 — In her closing statement, Clinton urges voters to use their "head" and their "heart." "We have a lot of work that can only come because your heart is moved."
11:06 — Sanders, in his closing statement: "I'm running for president because I believe it is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics. We need a revolution."
My friend Ben Wikler, the Washington Director of Moveon.org (which is supporting Bernie Sanders), describes how one of the Iowa caucus precincts was decided:
[T]he first vote was roughly evenly split between Bernie and Hillary. (Nobody for O'Malley.) There are five delegates at stake, divided between the candidates in proportionate to their votes in the room. So it'll be two and two, with one delegate at stake.
The four undecideds go into a corner to hear pitches from supporters of either side. The rest of the crowd mills around; a few go to the bathroom; one or two don't come back.
Three people make up their mind for Bernie; one for Hillary. Back to seats.
Final vote. 61 for Bernie. For Hillary it's 59... 60... 61. Tie!
Recount. Slower this time. Still 61-61. Whoa.
So how do you break a tie? At this precinct, the answer is apparently: COIN FLIP.
Bernie's people call it: heads. Up goes the coin. Back down. Everyone clusters around to look.
Tails.
Cheers go up on the Hillary side, frustration on Bernie side, and boom, that's it: three delegates for Hillary, two for Bernie, a bajillion fail points awarded to the people who left in the middle of the caucus, and we're off the Bernie victory party.
Ben caught it on video (if this video doesn't show up properly, click here):
Here's another video of the same coin flip, shown on C-SPAN. You can hear Ben Wikler say, "What?!" at about 0:25, and a couple seconds later he shows up just to the right of the woman who's explaining the procedure.
Hillary Clinton is a terrible candidate. . . . That doesn’t mean she won’t eventually end up being president, but if she does, it will be despite her lackluster political skills, rather than because of them. The woman has had almost incumbent levels of support from her party, which paved the way for an easy coronation . . . and saw her come to a statistical tie with a self-avowed socialist.
Think about this: she started up 30 percent over Bernie Sanders, and ended up winning six precincts by a coin toss. Clinton seems to have a stronger base of support among Iowa coins than she does among Iowa caucus voters.
Pocket Change We Can Believe In!
A Facebook friend pointed out that the real problem seems to be that Sanders supporters are terrible at calling coin flips. Why, I can see the attack ad now . . .
(Narrator, speaking slowly with a tone of voice expressive of deep concern, over grainy black-and-white footage of slow-motion coin flips in Iowa auditoriums:) "The Bernie Sanders campaign . . . has consistently called coin flips wrong. How can we expect Bernie Sanders . . . to do what's right for America?"
I'll be live-blogging the debate here. Keep reloading for more updates.
This is the first Democratic debate after Biden announced he wasn't running, and after three candidates dropped out. There are only three candidates, so no one should need to complain about not having enough time in this two-hour debate.
As always, I'll be writing down quotes as I hear them, so they might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate.
9:06 — First, each candidate is asked for their thoughts on the attacks on Paris yesterday. Sanders vows to "rid our planet of this barbarous organization called ISIS."
9:08 — Hillary Clinton denounces the "radical jihadist ideology" of ISIS, a "terrorist group." The use of the word "jihadist" seems to mark a shift from President Obama, who shies away from referring to the Islamic nature of Islamic terrorism.
9:10 — Clinton is asked if Obama underestimated the threat posed by ISIS. Clinton fails to answer the question, and instead makes her standard points about ISIS and terrorism. The moderator calls her out on this, and asks the same question again. [VIDEO.]
9:13 — Martin O'Malley takes a hawkish tone, calling ISIS "evil" and saying "this is America's fight," though "not only America's fight." [Added later: O'Malley was responding to Clinton's repeated statement that "this cannot be an American fight." However, she added: "American leadership is essential."]
9:13 — Sanders is asked if he still believes climate change is the greatest threat in the world. He says yes — in fact, climate change leads to terrorism. [VIDEO.]
9:14 — Sanders and O'Malley both criticize Clinton for understating America's responsibility to defeat ISIS.
9:15 — Sanders notes that Clinton voted for the Iraq War, which led to ISIS.
9:16 — Clinton defends herself with a long-winded and confusing historical account going back to the '90s. As I understand it, she's basically emphasizing that terrorism was a serious problem well before the Iraq War — but how should that allay any Democratic voters' concerns that her vote to authorize the Iraq War made things worse rather than better?
9:17 — Sanders calls himself "more conservative than the Secretary" on "regime change" — meaning he's more cautious and aware of the unintended consequences. [VIDEO.]
9:21 — The moderator, John Dickerson, points out that Clinton "championed" Obama's invasion of Libya, and quotes Obama saying he learned from Libya that it's important to think in advance about what happens "the day after." Dickerson asks: shouldn't that lesson already have been learned by then,from the Iraq War?
9:23 — O'Malley is asked about his lack of foreign-policy experience. He says: "We are not so good at appreciating threats and building up stable democracies." He also talks about a mom who urged him not to use the phrase "boots on the ground" because she felt her son was diminished by the metonymy. (Of course, he didn't use the word "metonymy.")
9:26 — Clinton is asked if she agrees with Marco Rubio's statement that we're "at war with radical Islam." Clinton dodges the question by saying "we're not at war with all Muslims." As the moderator points out, that isn't what Rubio said — Rubio limited his statement to radical Islam. Clinton praises President Bush for speaking appropriately about this sensitive topic in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks. [VIDEO.]
9:27 — Clinton is asked if we need to "understand" ISIS. This is a politically tricky question, but she gives a clever response: she first says it's "very difficult to put ourselves in their shoes," but then proceeds to do just that by describing ISIS's worldview as one of "nihilism," "a lust for power," and "rejection of modernity and human rights." [Added later:] I'm struck by how Clinton went straight for the hawkish view of ISIS (they're just a bunch of nihilistic, backward people who crave power), and passed up the opportunity to urge us to have a greater understanding of the "root causes" of terrorism. Clinton sounded much like the conservative Charles Krauthammer, writing in the month after the September 11 attacks:
It turns out that the enemy does have recognizable analogues in the Western experience. He is, as President Bush averred in his address to the nation, heir to the malignant ideologies of the 20th century. In its nihilism [the same word used by Clinton], its will to power [similar to the "lust for power" mentioned by Clinton], its celebration of blood and death, its craving for the cleansing purity that comes only from eradicating life and culture, radical Islam is heir, above all, to Nazism. The destruction of the World Trade Center was meant not only to wreak terror. Like the smashing of the Bamiyan Buddhas [in Afghanistan earlier in 2001], it was meant to obliterate greatness and beauty, elegance and grace. These artifacts represented civilization embodied in stone or steel. They had to be destroyed [that would be an example of the "rejection of modernity," as Clinton put it].
9:28 — O'Malley says our Muslim American "neighbors" are not our "enemies" — "they are our first line of defense."
9:33 — Clinton says she supports taking in 65,000 Syrian refugees. Of course, she says we should have a "careful" screening process to "prevent people who wish to do us harm from coming into our country." (Easier said than done.)
9:42 — Sanders is asked how high he'd raise taxes. He doesn't have an "exact number," but it will be lower than the highest rate under President Eisenhower — "I'm not that much of a socialist compared to Eisenhower!" [VIDEO.]
9:44 — Clinton vows to "defend" Obamacare, in contrast with Republicans, who will tear it up and throw us back into a "contentious debate" about health care. She says she disagrees with Sanders on health care, but Sanders retorts that he was on the committee that drafted Obamacare.
9:46 — Sanders says we need to "end the national embarrassment of being the only advanced country on earth that doesn't guarantee health care to all people as a right, not a privilege."
9:51 — O'Malley says that net immigration in the past year was "zero." He blatantly pleads for media attention: "Go ahead, fact-check me!" (Clinton says he's "basically" right.) [Update: The Washington Post's Fact Checker obliged.]
9:53 — Sanders is asked how much "job loss" he'd find an "acceptable" consequence of raising the minimum wage. Sanders vaguely acknowledges that any policy will have some negative consequences, but he'll "apologize to nobody" for supporting an increase to $15 an hour. For some reason, he suggests that this will especially help to reduce unemployment among black youths.
9:56 — O'Malley is asked why he raised Maryland's minimum wage only to $10.10, when he now calls for increasing the whole country's minimum wage to $15.
9:56 — Clinton admits that "there are no international comparisons" to what would happen if we raised the minimum wage to $15, so she only supports raising it to $12, which "would be the highest above the historical average we've ever had."
10:02 — Clinton is asked how she can rein in Wall Street when she's "indebted" to so many people on Wall Street since they've donated so much money to her. Clinton says this is obvious from the fact that two "billionaire hedge fund managers" have been putting out attack ads against her. Sanders says Clinton's answer is "not good enough," and asks why Wall Street has been such a "major contributor" to Clinton. "Maybe they're dumb! But I don't think so." [VIDEO.]
10:05 — Things really heat up between Clinton and Sanders over Clinton's connections to Wall Street. Clinton says: "He has basically used his answer to impugn my integrity." Sanders protests: "No I have not!" Clinton presses on: "Oh, wait a minute here . . ." She adds that Sanders's plan of "breaking up the big banks" is "not enough." Sanders seems like he's trying to turn down the heat: "I respectfully disagree with you, Madam Secretary." [VIDEO.]
10:08 — O'Malley repeatedly says, very slowly and emphatically, that Clinton's proposal on Wall Street is "weak tea."
10:09 — As in the last debate, Clinton seems to be trying to minimize any apparent difference between herself and the other candidates on financial regulations: "If the big banks don't play by the rules, I will break them up."
10:10 — Sanders says, in a thinly veiled swipe at Clinton: "Here's my promise: Wall Street representatives will not be in my cabinet."
10:11 — Clinton repeats what she said in the last debate about her disagreement with Sanders about lawsuits against gun manufacturers. The moderator shoots back: "If he can be tattooed by one vote . . . why can't you be tattooed by your vote on Iraq?" Clinton frankly admits: "I made a mistake on Iraq."
10:13 — On gun control, Sanders says, "I don't know that there's any disagreement here," and both of the other candidates laugh at him.
10:14 — O'Malley goes after Clinton on gun control: "You've been on three sides of this." She was for gun regulations at first, but then "painted [her]self as Annie Oakley, saying we don't need regulations at the federal level." Sanders tries to take the rug out from under O'Malley with the understatement that Baltimore, of which O'Malley was mayor, is "not the safest city in America."
10:16 — A viewer asks Clinton why she invoked "9/11" to defend against Sanders's charges of being too close to Wall Street. Clinton seems to suggest that the viewer misunderstood. (Well, I didn't understand Clinton's point either.)
I represented New York, and I represented New York on 9/11 when we were attacked. Where were we attacked? We were attacked in downtown Manhattan, where Wall Street is. I did spend a whole lot of time and effort helping them rebuild. That was good for New York. It was good for the economy, and it was a way to rebuke the terrorists who had attacked our country. [VIDEO.]
My dad worked in WTC from the day it was built to the day it went down. @HillaryClinton, never invoke 9/11 to justify your Wall St positions
10:17 — Clinton says some stuff that I didn't catch about Glass-Steagall. She admits it's an "arcane" discussion, and I think she knows that talk of "Glass-Steagall" doesn't mean much to most viewers, especially when no one bothers to explain it. Even Ben Bernanke, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, doesn't understand why there's so much focus on it in the debates! I don't know if the candidates are even thinking about the fact that some of their viewers who will be eligible to vote in 2016 are teenagers; Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999, when they were babies.
10:25 — Sanders is asked about the apparent discrepancy between his statement in the last debate that he was "sick and tired" of hearing about Clinton's emails, and his later comments, but Sanders brushes this off as a media invention. We get a sequel to the Sanders/Clinton love-fest from the last debate, with Sanders saying: "I didn't know that I had so much power! We don't hear much about her emails anymore! . . . We've gotten off of Clinton's emails — good!" Clinton: "I couldn't have said it better myself!"
10:27 — Clinton: "President Obama deserves more credit than he's gotten for what he got done in Washington, despite Republican obstructionism."
10:28 — Dickerson brings up her recent congressional testimony on Benghazi, and asks if she can assure us the "other shoe isn't going to drop." Clinton: "I think after 11 hours, that's pretty clear!"
10:30 — When O'Malley is asked about criminal justice reform, he says he has more "graveside" experience than the other candidates.
10:32 — Sanders calls to "end minimum sentencing" and legalize marijuana at the federal level, so states can be free to legalize it.
10:35 — Sanders is asked why government should pay for tuition, when about 40% of college students don't graduate. Isn't the taxpayer money just "thrown away" on them? Sanders doesn't answer that question, but simply reiterates his support for "free" college (to the extent anything that would cost billions of dollars can be called "free").
10:38— Clinton: "I disagree with free college for everybody." Her rationale is that taxpayers should have to "send Donald Trump's kids to college." (Of course, Trump's kids went to private colleges, which wouldn't be affected by Sanders's plan.) Government and families should both "contribute."
10:40 — The moderator points out that Clinton's health-care plan back when she was First Lady was "Sanders-esque." Clinton seems wistful: "Revolution never came! . . . I have the scars to prove it!"
10:42 — As the moderator is starting to go to a commercial break, O'Malley begs for more time, but Dickerson blames it on technology: "I'm sorry, Governor, we've got to take a break, or the machine breaks down!" [Update: Out of the three candidates, O'Malley spoke the least — 25% of the time — and Clinton spoke the most — 40% of the time.]
10:46 — The candidates are all asked about "a time you've been tested," which they could draw on as president. Clinton says the time she had to advise Obama on the mission to kill bin Laden. Clinton gets personal: "It was an excruciating experience — I couldn't talk to anybody about it," including her husband. Sanders's answer is pretty dull by comparison: he says he'd draw on his experience compromising with Republicans when he was Chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.
10:51 — In his closing statement, O'Malley says we shouldn't return to "polarizing figures of the past." I can't imagine who he has in mind!
10:52 — Clinton starts her closing statement with a good line: "I've heard a lot about me in this debate. I'm going to keep talking and thinking about you." At the end of her statement, she gets wild applause.
10:54 — Sanders's closing statement is evocative of Larry David's impersonation of him: "We need a political revolution! . . . Turn off the TV! . . . Please become a part of the revolution!"
O'Malley successfully baited Trump into giving him some much-needed publicity.
I'll be live-blogging the debate here. Keep reloading for more updates.
As always, I'll be quoting the candidates on the fly, but I'll try to keep the quotes reasonably accurate. (I might go back and tweak some of the quotes later, but if you need an exact quote, please don't rely on this post — check the transcript.)
It's easy to say that tonight will be all about Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. But even if you're sure that Martin O'Malley, Jim Web, and Lincoln Chafee can't win the nomination, they could still have an impact tonight.
As Bill Scher has pointed out, a pivotal moment in the 2008 Democratic primaries was prompted by a candidate who never had a serious chance: Chris Dodd.
[On] October 30, 2007, when the Democrats debated in Philadelphia[,] Clinton was the front-runner then, too, and it was the thirteenth time the candidates had met. But it was also, arguably, the first time that her opponents—Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson, John Edwards, Christopher Dodd, Joe Biden, and, most improbably, Barack Obama—seriously challenged her, on all fronts. Edwards accused her of “doubletalk.” Obama called her out for “changing positions whenever it’s politically convenient”—she was “for NAFTA previously, now she’s against it”—and for not being “truthful.” A lot of the time was taken up asking why records of her official work in her husband’s White House were sealed in the Clinton Presidential library. She responded with what must have been intended as judiciousness but came across as obfuscation. When Tim Russert, one of the moderators, tried to determine whether she was in favor of issuing driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants—she had indicated both yes and no—she called his question a “gotcha.”
In the days that followed, Clinton and her campaign tried to frame the debate as a Hillary-against-the-world moment, a “pile-on,” orchestrated by what she called, in a speech at Wellesley College, “the all-boys’ club.” Clinton had been considered the winner in most of the previous debates, and even many of her supporters acknowledged that this one marked a turning point. A week before, she was at 48.5 per cent in an average of polls, the highest she had ever been. (Obama registered 21.2.) Immediately afterward, she began a decline and, despite some rebounds, never matched that number again.
As you can see in this video, Dodd wasn't the only one going after Clinton on drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants, but he was the firstcandidate to seize on it. Obama and Edwards then picked up on Dodd's cue and added to the criticism of Clinton for being unclear and trying to have it both ways. No one expected drivers' licenses to be a significant issue in the election before that night, but those five minutes were arguably the beginning of the end for the Clinton campaign.
8:41 — Sheryl Crow does a weak rendition of the national anthem.
8:49 — Lincoln Chafee notes, in his opening statement, that he's the only candidate who's been a mayor, a governor, and a Senator. Also: "I have had no scandals!" (Unlike some candidates!)
8:51 — Jim Webb emphasizes that "more than half of [his] professional life" has been outside politics (as a novelist, journalist, and businessperson).
8:52 — Webb vividly describes his family members, including his wife, who immigrated here from Vietnam and learned English, a language that wasn't spoken at home when she was growing up, and eventually went to my alma mater, Cornell Law School.
8:53 — Martin O'Malley's opening strikes a humble note: "There are some things in life I've learned how to do better than others. . . ."
8:55 — Bernie Sanders uses his opening to attack the Supreme Court's decision in Citizens United for giving undue influence to "millionaires and billionaires." He also notes that "African-American youth unemployment is 51%." Instead of "providing more jails and more incarceration," Sanders would raise the minimum wage, further increasing African-American youth unemployment.
8:59 — Hillary Clinton starts out talking about how she's been "traveling across the country, . . . listening and learning." And: "Yes, finally, fathers will be able to say to their daughters: you too can grow up to be President."
9:01 — Anderson Cooper asks Clinton about her flip-flops on gay rights, trade, and other issues. "Will you say anything just to get elected?" She claims to have been "very consistent" throughout her life — "but I do absorb new information." On President Obama's trade deal: "I wanted to make sure I could look in the eyes of American families and say this will raise your wages, and I concluded I could not."
9:03 — Cooper asks Clinton: "Just for the record, are you a progressive or a moderate"? "I'm a progressive, but I'm a progressive who likes to get things done."
9:04 — Sanders is asked how he can win as a "democratic socialist." He says this can work as long as he educates the public on "what democratic socialism means," including: "It is immoral and wrong that the top tenth of the top 1% own as much as the bottom 90%." Sanders invokes Denmark, and Cooper shoots back that it has a population of just a few million.
9:06 — Cooper asks Sanders if he's a capitalist. "Do I consider myself a part of the casino-capitalist process? . . . No, I don't." Cooper opens up the question to the other candidates, and Clinton says we need to "save capitalism from itself," to "rein in the excesses of capitalism so it doesn't run amok." "But," Clinton adds pointedly, "we are not Denmark," and we need to support small businesses, which she does associate with capitalism.
9:08 — Cooper asks Chafee how Democrats can trust him — "you've only been a Democrat for two years." Chafee: "You're looking at a block of granite on the issues." Cooper retorts: "It's pretty soft granite!" Why did Chafee switch parties? "The party left me! There was no room left for a liberal, moderate Republican."
9:09 — Cooper asks O'Malley about the unrest in Baltimore, which he led as mayor and governor. "We saved over 1,000 lives in Baltimore over 15 years, and most of them were young and black." [VIDEO.]
9:11 — Webb is asked about his position on affirmative action — isn't he out of step with the party? He says no, and clarifies that he has "always been in favor of affirmative action for African-Americans." He's against affirmative action being applied to "everyone but whites, including poor Appalachian whites."
9:13 — Cooper asks Sanders about his record on gun control. He responds in the third person: "Bernie Sanders has a D- rating from the NRA."
9:15 — Clinton is asked whether Sanders is "tough enough on guns." She directly attacks Sanders: "No. Not at all. . . . Senator Sanders did vote 5 times against the Brady Bill." After Sanders defended himself on the ground that a bill protecting gun manufacturers from lawsuits was complicated, Clinton says it was "not that complicated."
9:17 — O'Malley seethes with anger as he tells the story of the family of a woman who died in the Aurora shooting, who tried to sue the gun manufacturer. As O'Malley joins in Clinton's attack on Sanders, Clinton repeatedly nods her head with determination. O'Malley one-ups Sanders by touting his "F from the NRA," and accusing Sanders of "pandering to the NRA."
9:19 — Cooper points out that Webb has an "A rating from the NRA!" He doesn't back away from his support of gun rights: "The average American," who doesn't get free bodyguards, "deserves the right to protect their family."
9:23 — Clinton says it's "unacceptable" for Russia to be "bombing people on behalf of Assad." But isn't that [partly] a euphemism for bombing ISIL? [I added the word "partly" and the link afterwards, based on a comment.]
9:24 — Sanders calls the Iraq War the worst foreign-policy decision in American history (or one of the worst — didn't catch that). Clinton chimes in that no one on the stage supports the war. (Of course, she voted to authorize the war but eventually said she regretted it.)
9:24 — Clinton cleverly notes that she was at about 25 debates 8 years ago in which she and Obama went back and forth on Iraq — but after all that, "President Obama asked me to be Secretary of State. He valued my judgment." [VIDEO.]
9:28 — Sanders is asked when he would support military action. "I voted to make sure that Osama bin Laden was held accountable in Afghanistan." He also voted for the Kosovo War.
9:31 — As a question goes to Clinton, Webb complains that he hasn't gotten a question in a while. Clinton brushes him off: "Well, I am in the middle here! Lots of things coming at me from all directions!"
9:33 — Webb tells us, for the second time, that he fought in Vietnam and his son fought in Iraq. [He later brings up his Vietnam service for a third time.] How well has the "I'm a veteran" pitch worked for presidential candidates in the past? Just ask President Wesley Clark, President Kerry, President McCain, President Dole . . .
9:34 — Sanders on Russia and Syria: "I think Putin is going to regret what he is doing." Cooper: "He doesn't seem to be the type of guy to regret a lot."
9:38 — Webb comes out strongly against Obama's war in Libya: "It's not about Benghazi per se, but about the decisions that allowed Benghazi to happen. There were no treaties at risk, no Americans at risk, no attack or threat of attack."
9:39 — Sanders is asked how he could be Commander in Chief after he applied for "conscientious objector" status during the Vietnam War. "When I was a young man — I'm not a young man today — I strongly opposed the Vietnam War. . . . I am not a pacifist." [VIDEO.]
9:42 — Every candidate is asked what the greatest threat to the US is. Clinton says nuclear weapons being obtained by terrorists. Sanders says climate change.
9:46 — Cooper brings up Clinton's emails. "You dismissed it. You joked about it. You called it a mistake. What does that say about your ability to handle far more pressing responsibilities as President?" She attacks the House Committee that's soon going to hear her testimony about the emails as "partisan." "I think it's pretty clear what their obvious goal is. So I'll be there, I'll testify. But tonight, I want to talk not about my emails but about [the issues]."
9:49 — Sanders refuses to turn Clinton's emails into an issue: "Secretary Clinton is right. The American people are tired of hearing about your damn emails!" Clinton: "Me too!" She reaches over to shake his hand: "Thank you, Bernie! Thank you!" [VIDEO.]
9:50 — Chafee attacks Clinton over the emails. Cooper asks: "Secretary Clinton, do you want to respond?" "No!"
9:52 — An audience member asks: "Do black lives matter, or do all lives matter?" Why are those mutually exclusive?
9:54 — Clinton says we need to "tackle mass incarceration" — which might be "the only bipartisan issue this year." "We need a new New Deal for communities of color and the poor."
9:55 — Webb: "I risked my political life raising the issue of criminal justice reform."
9:58 — Cooper to Clinton: "You and your husband are part of the 1%. How can you represent the views of the middle class?" She reminds us that they didn't start out rich, then pivots from the personal to the political: "The economy does better when we have a Democrat in the White House."
10:00 — Clinton is asked about how she doesn't want to "break up the big banks," as Sanders does. Clinton says her plan is "tougher," and would actually "empower regulators to break up big banks if . . . they posed a risk."
10:01 — Sanders says he "fought" "the Clinton administration" on financial regulations. Clinton comes back that she went to Wall Street in 2007, before the crash, and said, "Cut it out!" Bernie laughs and shakes his head while she's speaking, and once she's done, he tells her: "Congress does not regulate Wall Street. Wall Street regulates Congress."
10:07 — Webb complains again about not getting enough time. Cooper: "You agreed to these rules, and you're wasting your time!"
10:08 — Chafee is asked about his vote on Glass-Steagall in 1999. Chafee's pathetic excuse: "I had just arrived in the Senate!" Cooper: "What does it say about you that you were casting a vote about something you weren't sure about?"
10:18 — Clinton supports in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. O'Malley agrees and presents this as a contrast with "Donald Trump, that carnival barker."
10:21 — Clinton says she doesn't regret her vote for the Patriot Act. "It was necessary to make sure that we were able after 9/11 to put in place the security that we needed." She says Bush's warrantless surveillance went too far, but doesn't comment on Obama's warrantless surveillance.
10:23 — Chafee on Edward Snowden: "I would bring him home. A federal court ruled that what the government did was illegal." Clinton disagrees: "He broke the laws of the United States. He could have been a whistle-blower. . . . I don't think he should be brought home without facing the music." Sanders splits the difference: Snowden was a hero, but he should also face consequences for breaking the law. Webb, when given the chance to talk (as he keeps begging for), takes no position on Snowden.
10:25 — Chafee says: "We need a new paradigm in the Middle East." He calls out the Obama administration for bombing a hospital and using drone strikes on a wedding. I like his message, but he's not a strong messenger.
10:26 — Clinton is asked how she'd be different from President Obama: "I think that's pretty obvious! I think being the first woman president would be quite a change from the presidents we've had up to this point!"
10:28 — Webb tries to tamp down the excitement over Sanders and his ambitious proposals: "I don't think the revolution is gonna come, and I don't think Congress is gonna pay for all this stuff."
10:29 — Cooper gives a teaser for the next round after the commercial break: "Some of the candidates have smoked marijuana, as has probably everybody in this room! Has it influenced their views on legalization?"
10:34 – Cooper says he's glad to see all of the candidates "back" after the commercial break, and says he's particularly glad to see Clinton back. Clinton, seeming out of breath, says: "You know, it does take me a little longer!"
10:36 — "I certainly am not campaigning to be president because my last name is Clinton."
10:37 — Sanders, in what's surely a gross exaggeration, says: "I am the only candidate running for president who's not a billionaire."
10:38 — On the environment, Cooper again asks Webb if he's out of step with his party.
10:41 — Clinton: "Literally, President Obama and I were hunting for the Chinese!" (Poor word choice!) "They told us they were going to the airport. We found out that they were having a secret meeting." [Added later: This is what she was talking about. This is what people pictured. Was this Clinton's "binders full of women" moment?]
10:43 — The candidates all talk about their support for paid family leave.
10:45 — Sanders says he "suspect[s]" he would vote for a Nevada referendum to legalize marijuana, if he lived in Nevada. (The moderator notes that he's admitted to smoking marijuana, but only twice.)
10:46 — Clinton says she supports medical marijuana but doesn't yet support legalizing recreational marijuana. (The moderator notes that she's denied ever doing it.)
10:53 — All the candidates are asked which "enemy" they're most proud to have made. Clinton's answer: "Well, in addition to the NRA, the health insurance companies, the drug companies, the Iranians, . . . probably the Republicans."
10:59 — O'Malley uses his closing statement to give evidence that America is on a progressive path: "Talk to Americans under 30, and you will never hear people who want to deny rights to gay people or bash immigrants."
11:02 — Hillary Clinton closes the evening with a statement reminiscent of Bill Clinton: "If you work hard and you do your part, you should be able to get ahead. . . . America's best days are ahead of us."
Anyone see an opening for Joe Biden after this debate?
I think things are easier for Biden now, because the question of why he should be running (rather than standing back to let Clinton glide smoothly to the presidency) no longer seems like such a big deal, after we've seen 4 other candidates all challenging her while standing right by her.
And while Clinton was very strong tonight, we already knew from 2008 that both Clinton and Biden are skilled at debating. This debate showed that Clinton has no strong challenger, which strengthens the rationale for Biden stepping in.
On the whole, Hillary tried to appeal to people's heads, with the knowledge that Bernie would have their hearts. Overall I think she did very well -- articulate, knowledgeable, and didn't allow Sanders -- or the audience -- to pull her too far to the left.
My verdict:
Winners: Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Anderson Cooper
Losers: Bernie Sanders, Lincoln Chafee, Jim Webb, Sheryl Crow
UPDATE: I originally called Sanders a "wash," but I'm moving him to the "losers" category. He didn't do much to win more support from the left than he already had; he was wounded on guns; and I can see many progressives who had been tentatively supporting him realizing that Clinton is the more sensible choice.
