8 Thoughts on Tuesday, March 15

1. Marco Rubio's loss of his home state by almost 20 points to Donald Trump wasn't just fatal to the Rubio campaign; it also dealt a devastating blow to the idea of Mitt Romney as an influential Republican elder statesman.

2. Tonight was also not a great night for the idea that betting odds are a better predictor than polls. For most of the time (since mid-October, which is the earliest time that website goes back to), betting odds have said Rubio is the most likely Republican nominee. (Full disclosure: Those links go to Election Betting Odds, which was co-created by my friend Maxim Lott.)

3. John Kasich is saying he might go to the Republican convention with more delegates than anyone else. And now, I'm afraid all the remaining Republican candidates might be mentally ill.

4. Losing Ohio could help Trump.

5. Alex Knepper explains why we should expect Trump to stay in the lead:

Presumably the only way to stop Trump at this point would be to look toward a Cruz-Kasich ticket, but the upcoming primaries are mostly friendly territory for Trump — Cruz will win Utah and Kasich might have a shot in Wisconsin, but Trump will likely sweep the Mid-Atlantic states on 4/19 and 4/26 — New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and so forth. Even without Ohio, Trump still has a perfectly viable path to a majority, and nobody else does.

6. I find it interesting that Trump made a point, in his victory speech, to congratulate Rubio on running a "tough" campaign, called him "smart," and said he'll have a great future. I don't think Trump said a word about Jeb Bush when he dropped out on the night of South Carolina.

7. Did anyone predict, before the voting started, that the Republican race would come down to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich? Anyone at all, in the whole world?

8. Since Hillary Clinton seems to have won all 5 primaries and Trump won everything except Kasich's home state, we can now see that this Reason piece was right: "letting Trump speak is not merely the morally correct, philosophically consistent course of action: It's the tactically sound one as well." That article had prescient words the day before the primaries:

When the left stops Trump from speaking, Trump wins. He gets to tell his people that the forces of far-left activism and political correctness are trying to silence him. Implicitly, he is suggesting to his followers that when he becomes president, the tides will turn: see his promise to make it easier to sue newspapers for criticizing him. Trump supporters adore this shtick. Stop giving them ammunition.

As Bill Scher said on Twitter in response to the primary results:

Speculation: The visual of Bernie supporters disrupting Trump rallies offered a dismal picture of a Sanders-Trump general, fueling [Clinton] . . .

Takeaway: spend more time knocking doors for your candidate than protesting the other party's candidate

Live-blogging the last scheduled Republican primary debate of 2016

I'll be live-blogging the last scheduled Republican primary debate of 2016 — which is also the last scheduled debate of either major party. Keep reloading this post for updates.

As always, I'll be doing this without a pause/rewind button, so my quotations might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate, and I might or might not go back and correct some of them later.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, or the New Republic.

8:56 — The candidates walk out and stand next to each other in this order: John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio. When Trump walks up to Cruz, they shake hands and Trump pats Cruz on the back. When Rubio walks up to Trump, those two have no eye contact or interaction of any kind.

8:57 — The moderator, Jake Tapper, leads a moment of silence in memory of Nancy Reagan. Most of the candidates do the usual looking down with their eyes closed — but Trump alternates between closing his eyes, and looking around the room.

8:58 — Finally, a nice subdued, soothing rendition of the "Star-Spangled Banner" instead of the usual showy, virtuosic versions.

9:01 — In his opening statement, Cruz says the election isn't about "insults" or "attacks" — an obvious reference to Rubio and Trump.

9:02 — Trump says, in his opening statement: "One of the biggest political events anywhere in the world is going on with the Republican party" — massive turnout of people who are "voting out of love." "The whole world is talking about it — it's very exciting." He urges "the Republican establishment" to "embrace what's happening." Trump seems to be using his relatively measured, diplomatic tone so far in this debate.

9:03 — Surprisingly, Tapper asks the first question of Kasich. (Usually the first question goes to one of the frontrunners.) Tapper asks if Kasich's views on trade put "the board room" over the middle class. Kasich says: "When countries cheat and take advantage of us, we need to blow the whistle."

9:05 — Tapper asks Trump why we should believe he'll change the system when he's taken advantage of it in his businesses. "Because nobody knows the system better than me."

9:07 — Tapper asks Cruz about his flip-flop on the "Pacific trade deal." Cruz says Tapper is confusing the TPP with the TPA; what matters is the TPP, which Cruz has consistently opposed. Cruz says he'll protect workers with a tax plan that "will not tax exports and will tax imports."

9:11 — Rubio is asked about the H-1B visa program. Rubio focuses on cracking down on companies that abuse the program.

9:12 — Kasich: "I'd maybe be running for President of Croatia if we didn't have immigration."

9:13 — Trump again distinguishes between what he's done in business and what he'd do as president, calling the H-1B visa program "something that I frankly use, and we shouldn't be allowed to use. . . . I'm a businessman, and it's sitting there waiting for you." He calls for pausing it for one or two years.

9:15 — Cruz seems to be trying to win over Trump supporters by talking tough on immigration: "We're going to build a wall; triple border control; end sanctuary cities; and end welfare for people who are here illegally."

9:16 — Rubio virtually admits that his immigration plan would not have allowed his parents to immigrate, but he says this is necessary because of how the economy has changed.

9:17 — Tapper asks Trump what exactly he objects to about Common Core. "Education through Washington, DC. I don't want that. I want local education." Trump slips in the news that former candidate Ben Carson is going to endorse him tomorrow.

9:18 — Kasich is asked about his previous statement that opposition to Common Core is "hysteria." Kasich sums up his position as: "Local control — high state standards."

9:20 — Cruz says in one of his first days in office, he'll issue an executive order saying: "Common Core ends that day." And he'll abolish the Department of Education.

9:23 — Now the topic is Social Security. Rubio calls for gradually raising the retirement age to 70 — otherwise, "we will have a debt crisis," in which the vast majority of the budget is spent on "Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the debt."

9:25 — Trump, asked about Social Security, starts by talking about the Democrats: "I've been watching them very, very intensely, even though that's a very boring thing to watch." As for Social Security, he says he wants to "leave it the way it is, not raise the retirement." His plan to deal with the debt is just to grow the economy and cut "waste, fraud, and abuse." The moderator, Dana Bash, shoots back that Social Security abuse is only about $3 billion, yet we'd need to save $150 billion to make the program solvent. Trump says we'll "bring wealth back to our country" by making "deals" with other countries, e.g. about our military bases.

9:28 — Rubio joins in Bash's point that Trump's "numbers don't add up." "We'd better deal with it, or we're going to have to explain to our children how we allowed this disaster." Trump bears down: "We're going to bid out on virtually every facet of government — we're going to save a fortune!"

9:31 — Cruz says: "The answer can't just be: wave a magic wand and say: 'Problem, go away!'" He doesn't mention Trump — he says that's Hillary Clinton's plan. Dana Bash asks: "Did you just compare Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton?" Cruz won't answer, but he makes it clear he's ribbing Trump by dismissing the idea of "some fanciful 'waste, fraud, and abuse'" — Trump's favorite phrase when it comes to the debt. [VIDEO.]

9:34 — Trump says Cruz flip-flopped on ethanol, and then Cruz brings up his attack on Trump from the last couple debates: that Trump has been "funding" liberals. Trump doesn't take the bait to ramp up his attacks on Cruz. Instead, Trump tones it down: "We're going to come up with solutions. And so far, I cannot believe how civil it's been up here!" [VIDEO.]

9:36 — Kasich says on Social Security, we need to "innovate," not "cut."

9:40 — Cruz goes after Trump's proposal for tariffs: "A tariff is a tax on you, the American people." And that's just the direct effect of the tax; the indirect effect is that other countries would respond with their own tariffs, further increasing prices for Americans. Trump tries to allay those concerns by saying his proposal for a 45% tariff is just "a threat" of what we'd do if other countries "don't behave." Trump says it's "just the opposite" of what Cruz says: if we do impose those tariffs, we'll start manufacturing goods in the US, which will boost our economy.

9:47 — Trump is asked about his recent statement, "Islam hates us." Does he mean all 1.6 billion Muslims in the world? "I mean a lot of 'em! . . . There's something going on. . . . There's tremendous hatred, and I will stick with what I said." [VIDEO.] Rubio responds: "I know that people find a lot of appeal in what Donald says, because he says what people wish they could say. The problem is: presidents can't just say what they want." Rubio suggests that Trump's statements as a candidate may have already harmed America's image in the world. Trump stands his ground: "I don't like to be politically correct. I like to solve problems. . . . We'd better solve the problem before it's too late." Rubio: "I'm not interested in being politically correct; I'm interested in being correct!" [VIDEO.]

9:52 — Trump is asked about his statement that we should "take out the families of terrorists." Trump switches to talking about how we have a law against waterboarding, and we have to obey the laws, but ISIL doesn't obey any laws, so we should "expand our laws." That doesn't really answer the question about terrorists' families.

9:55 — Cruz dismisses Trump: "We've never targeted innocent civilians" (really? I want a fact check on that!) "and we're not going to start now." Cruz segues into emphasizing the foreign-policy areas where Trump has seemed less than conservative: saying he won't tear up the Iran deal, and saying he'd be "neutral" on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.

9:57 — Trump insists that he's "very pro-Israel," and the crowd moans and boos. He points out: "I happen to have a daughter and a son-in-law that are Jewish." He uses the same argument he used in a recent debate: that he'd present himself as neutral in order to make a deal. If this issue didn't hurt him in past primaries, I don't think it's going to hurt him in the future.

9:59 — Cruz virtually devolves into baby talk when going after Trump: "The answer is not to yell: China bad! Muslims bad!" [VIDEO.]

10:03 — Now they're talking about ISIL. I'm not finding this very interesting, because they're just rehashing what they've said in many prior debates. They can't say anything other than that they'd do whatever is necessary to destroy ISIL. I don't think Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would take issue with that.

10:07 — Rubio talks about a veteran who committed suicide after calling a VA suicide hotline and getting sent to voicemail. Rubio brings up his support for the VA Accountability Bill. In a rare moment for a Republican primary debate, Rubio says: "I'll give him credit, Bernie Sanders was a part of this!"

10:13 — Rubio and Trump go back and forth on Cuba, with Rubio taking a hard line and Trump focusing on making a "deal" with Cuba. The crowd cheers Rubio and grumbles in response to Trump. Cruz pounces on Trump's statements, saying Trump wants to be like President Obama but just make "a little bit better deals."

10:19 — Tapper asks Rubio if he'll "acknowledge the reality of the scientific consensus of climate change." Rubio says, yeah, "the climate is always 'changing'!" But "there's no such thing" as "a law we can pass in Washington to change the weather." The cost of climate-change legislation would be "rammed down the throat of the American consumer," and have "zero" effect on the environment. "America's not a planet — it's a country."

10:22 — Kasich admits that "we contribute to climate change." He seems to be trying to chart a complex middle path.

10:26 — Tapper insinuates that Trump tends to support authoritarianism, based on his comments about Vladimir Putin and Tiananmen Square. Trump clarifies that he said China was "strong" in Tiananmen Square, but that isn't an endorsement — it was "horrible." [VIDEO.] Kasich comes on strongly about Tiananmen Square, saying we should build a statue to the iconic but unknown man who stood in front of a Chinese tank. That's nice, though I don't think being on the right side of history about something that happened in 1989 is going to help Kasich get more delegates in 2016.

10:33 — Trump is asked if he's set a "tone" that encourages violence at his rallies. Trump says, "I hope not," then segues into talking about the "anger" that he's seen among the American people. Tapper quotes Trump's recent statements at rallies, like "I'd like to punch him in the face," and "Knock the crap out of him . . . I promise I'll pay for the legal fees!" Trump doesn't apologize, but focuses on how violent some of the protesters are and the fact that they're often dealt with by "the police." [VIDEO.]

10:35 — Cruz is asked what he thinks about Trump's rallies. Cruz seems to hesitate on this. "We need to show respect for the people." Cruz contrasts this with Obama, who sees himself as "an emperor." He finally comes back to Trump, criticizing him for having his audience raise their hands in a pledge of loyalty to Trump. "That is exactly backwards! We're in a job interview — we should pledging loyalty to you!" Trump lambastes the media for comparing his mass pledge to "Nazi Germany."

10:39 — Rubio takes the question about Trump's rallies as an opportunity to blandly express concern about "violence in general in our society." Rubio also adopts Obama's tack of invoking the moon landing as a symbol of how "anything's possible" in America.

10:40 — Hugh Hewitt asks Kasich about the fact that it seems like the only way he could be nominated would be through a contested convention, not by winning the majority of delegates. Shouldn't the nominee be whoever has the plurality? Kasich talks about how in school, if you got 86%, you got a B — you didn't get an A just because the people with 84% got a B!

10:42 — Trump: "I'm gonna have the delegates, OK?" He points out that two of them have some chance of getting a majority, and two of them don't. "That is not meant to be a criticism; that is just a mathematical fact."

10:43 — Cruz says it would be an "absolute disaster" to "parachute in" Washington's favorite nominee. Of course, he agrees with Trump that they're the only two who have a shot at earning the nomination outright. But he says: "If we nominate Donald Trump, Hillary wins!"

10:45 — Trump impersonates Cruz saying: "I'm the only one who beat Donald in 6 contests!" Trump points out: "I beat him in 13 contests — he never mentions that!"

10:45 — Rubio admits he's been disappointed with the primary results, but says he's inspired to keep going by a man who's supposed to stay indoors to recover from surgery, but keeps standing outside polling places with a sign saying "Marco Rubio."

10:46 — Trump is asked if he'll pledge not to take "outside contributions" throughout the whole election. He says he hasn't made that decision yet — he's only self-funding during the primaries. (He's only taking "small" donations.)

10:50 — Rubio is asked about how he mocked Trump in the last debate for being "flexible." Won't the next president need to be flexible to get things done with Congress? "You can be flexible about your ideas; you shouldn't be flexible about your principles." Boring!

10:58 — In what might be his last closing statement, Kasich says he's run "an unwavering positive campaign," which his kids can be proud of (unlike some people).

11:00 — Rubio, in his closing statement: "America is great because each generation before it did what needed to be done."

11:01 — Cruz talks about how great is it that "the son of a bartender [Rubio] and the son of a mailman [Kasich] and the son of a dishwasher [Cruz] and a successful businessman [Trump] can all stand on this stage and run for President of the United States." He previews his attack against Hillary Clinton in the general election: "Madam Secretary, you are asking for a third term of a failed administration."

11:02 — Trump uses his closing statement to tell us: "The next president could appoint 3, 4, maybe 5 Supreme Court Justices." If that's done by a Democratic president, "it could take centuries to recover." "Unify! Be smart and unify!" That's probably the smartest thing he could say at this point.

After his closing statement, Trump turns to his right, toward Cruz, and says: "Great job! Great job!" Trump shakes hands with Cruz and Kasich. Then, Trump turns to his left and shakes hands with Rubio in a more business-like way. Trump and Rubio don't make strong eye contact, but they do shake hands, and Trump pats Rubio on the back, as he did with Cruz at the beginning of the debate. Trump and Rubio walk away from the podiums together, both looking straight ahead, not at each other. They've spent the last couple weeks lodging blistering attacks against each other, but they both must know by now that there isn't much more they can do. This debate was far more civilized than the other recent Republican debates. After a primary season filled with many moments of indignity, these candidates are all walking off with dignity tonight.

Live-blogging the first 2016 Republican debate after Super Tuesday

I'll be live-blogging the Fox News debate here. Keep reloading this post for more updates.

This is the first debate since Super Tuesday, and the first since Ben Carson dropped out. This debate will also be overshadowed by Mitt Romney's searing indictment of Donald Trump earlier today.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, the New Republic, and Althouse (my mom).

As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly, without a rewind button, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate (and I might or might not go back and correct some of them later).

9:02 — Donald Trump is asked about Romney's diatribe against him; the moderator quotes: "the bullying, the greed, the misogyny. . . ." Trump focuses on trade — an issue on which Romney used to praise Trump!

9:05 — Trump, when asked about the KKK and David Duke: "I totally disavow the Ku Klux Klan. I totally disavow David Duke. . . . You're about the 18th person to ask me that question."

9:06 — Marco Rubio is asked about the fact that he used to say he wouldn't stoop to personal attacks, but in the past week he's been making some very low blows, including "vulgar" ones, against Trump. Rubio says the media gives "an incredible amount of coverage" to Trump's attacks, and he "deserves" to be attacked the same way. Trump reminds us about Rubio's joke about Trump's supposedly small hands. Trump holds up his hands to show that they're not small. And then: "He also said: If they're small, something else must be small. I guarantee you, there's no problem!"

9:10 — Rubio to Trump: "Two-thirds of the people who have voted, have voted against you." Rubio says Trump is "not a conservative," and he "believes the nuclear triad is a rock band from the 1980s."

9:13 — John Kasich is asked whether he'd join Romney in encouraging voters to vote for Rubio in Florida, to try to lead to a brokered convention — and Kasich has recently admitted a brokered convention is the only way he could get the nomination. Kasich doesn't answer the question, brushing it off as being about "process," which "bores" him!

9:18 — After Rubio attacks Trump over his business record, Trump says: "This little guy has lied so much about my record!" Trump says his siblings heard Rubio in the last debate claiming Trump had inherited $200 million, and told their brother: "We didn't know dad left you $200 million!" Rubio objects to Trump calling him a "little guy" instead of talking about "policy," which is a bit rich after Rubio has been going around implying that Trump has a small penis and that he wets his pants.

9:23 — Trump is asked how he could have said in the last debate that he'd balance the budget by abolishing the Department of Education and the EPA, whose combined budgets are far less than the deficit. Trump says he'd allowed pharmaceutical companies to "bid properly," which would reduce "hundreds of billions of dollars" of waste. Chris Wallace flatly denies that, along the lines of this fact check. Trump seems to suggest that Wallace isn't fully grasping how Trump would allow more negotiation in a way that would broadly affect the economy.

9:26 — Ted Cruz says he understands the anger of Trump supporters — but "for 40 years, Donald has been part of the corruption in Washington that you're talking about." Trump says that's because he "wasn't a politician" and "owed it to [his] company to get along" with Democrats and Republicans.

9:27 — Kasich is asked about his supposed support for raising the minimum wage, unlike Trump, who's against raising it. Kasich says he's not in favor of raising the federal minimum wage — he was just describing Ohio's increase, but states are free to set their own policies. The moderators should be better prepared! [Added later: You can judge for yourself whether Kasich really supported raising the federal minimum wage in this video from September.]

9:31 — Cruz rebuts Trump's argument that he's supported Democratic politicians just as "the cost of doing business." Cruz says that could be understandable, even if it would be "corrupt." But Trump supported Carter against Reagan, and wrote multiple checks to Hillary Clinton — not just for her Senate campaign since she was the Senator from his state, but also for her presidential campaign. Trump admits he contributed to her presidential campaign — but says that was still just the cost of doing business (which does seem to make sense).

9:37 — Trump is asked if the tape of his off-the-record discussion with the New York Times, in which he supposedly expressed a willingness to be flexible on his immigration stance, should be released, and he says no. Rubio points out that the Times would release the tape if only Trump asked, but Trump still refuses. I'm not that interested in that issue, since Trump has already admitted on the record that he might be flexible on immigration. What I find more interesting about this interchange is that after Rubio defends his record on immigration, Trump strikes a conciliatory tone. Trump seems to express appreciation for Rubio's position, and he minimizes the differences between them on immigration. That might have been understandable if this had been the first debate, but in this debate, it's a jarring juxtaposition with the raucous hostility between those two that's been going on lately. I wonder if Trump has thoughts of trying to reconcile with Rubio and use him in some way.

9:41 — Megyn Kelly asks Trump about a conflict between his statements on visas for highly skilled workers — his website seems to be against them, but his own statements seem to be favorable to them. Trump candidly admits: "I'm changing it, and I'm softening the position."

9:51 — Brett Baier asks Trump about his suggestions that he might use torture and also kill terrorists' families. Baier says some in the military would refuse an order to do so, since they've been trained to refuse illegal orders. Trump says it's not illegal, but Baier says it would be. Predictably, Trump denies that they'd refuse: "If I say do it, they'll do it." Trump goes on: "They're chopping off the heads of Christians and anybody else who happens to be in the way . . . and now we're talking about waterboarding?!"

9:56 — Without being asked a question, Kasich chimes in to say that in a survey of about 700 foreign-policy experts, 55% said he would be the strongest on foreign policy. Kasich reminds us of his experience in Congress (before his current position as Governor), and alludes to one of the most famous debate moments in American history: "I knew Ronald Reagan! And I'll leave it right there as to what comes after that."

10:01 — Megyn Kelly plays a clip show of Trump flip-flopping on 3 issues: whether we should have invaded Afghanistan (no, then yes), whether to allow refugees from Syria (yes, then no), and whether George W. Bush lied us into the Iraq war (yes, then unsure). On the first one, Trump says he simply meant Iraq, not Afghanistan (although he admits that he once told Howard Stern, "meekly," that he'd support invading Iraq). On Syrian refugees, he says he changed his mind because he originally imagined very few refugees, and then heard larger numbers ("thousands and thousands"). Kelly tries to make a larger point out of all this: "You change your tune on so many things, and that has many people saying: What is your core?" "I've never seen a successful person who didn't have a degree of flexibility." That was a pretty tough series of questions, which Trump handled pretty adeptly.

10:07 — Rubio rebuffs Trump: "There's a difference between flexibility, and telling people whatever you think you need to say to get them to do what you want them to do."

Out of an abundance of caution, I'm refraining from saying anything about some legal issues being discussed in the debate, due to my professional situation.

10:14 — Cruz points to Trump and Rubio, who've been going after each other for a while, and says: "Is this the debate you want playing out in the general election?" When Trump interrupts, Cruz suggests Trump has a temper problem: "Count to 10, Donald! Count to 10!"

10:17 — Trump and Cruz argue about their poll numbers.

10:23 — Brett Baier asks Rubio: "Why haven't GOP candidates done more or talked more" about lead poisoning in the water of Flint, Michigan? Rubio says he has been talking about it; the Governor of Michigan "has taken responsibility" for it; and "Democrats" have been wrongly trying to "turn this into a partisan issue." He says there's "a proper role" for the federal government in dealing with this problem. [VIDEO.]

10:25 — Kelly asks Kasich about schools in Detroit that are "infested with rodents and insects." (The debate is happening in Detroit.)

10:28 — Cruz gives a paean to the Detroit of yesteryear, which was squandered by decades of Democratic rule. "That is a story that the media ought to be telling over and over again" — "the millions who have been hurt by" "left-wing policies."

10:30 — Kasich is asked about his comments in the last debate on same-sex marriage and religious liberty. He says if you're a same-sex couple who's turned down by a wedding photographer, "find another photographer! Don't go to court!" [VIDEO.]

10:32 — Cruz is asked if gay couples should be able to adopt children. Cruz says that's for the states to decide, citing the 10th Amendment. He pivots to saying the Supreme Court was wrong to say there's a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.

10:34 — Baier asks Rubio if he agrees with the late Justice Scalia that the 2nd Amendment "leaves room to regulate guns." Rubio says he'd leave "as little room as possible" to regulate guns. Rubio says a law-abiding "gun-owner like myself" will follow the law, but "criminals" don't care about the law.

10:36 — Trump says not as many people would have died in the Paris terrorist attacks if bullets had been flying "in the other direction."

10:39 — When Trump interrupts Cruz's answer, Cruz condescends to him: "Donald, I know it's hard for you . . ." Trump interjects again: "Lyin' Ted!" Cruz tries to calm Trump down: "Breathe, breathe, breathe . . ." Rubio: "When they're done with the yoga, can I answer the question?" Cruz: "I really hope that we don't see yoga on this stage." Rubio, pointing to Trump: "Well, he's very flexible, so you never know." [VIDEO.]

10:44 — Rubio says Trump isn't "serious" on foreign policy. He brings up Trump's answer that the military will do anything he tells them to do. "Now, that's just not true." Trump bears down: "When I say they'll do as I tell them . . . they'll do as I tell them!"

10:46 — Rubio is trying to present a more serious and sober version of himself than he did in the last debate. After Trump says Rubio isn't a "leader," Rubio says: "He's pressed on a policy issue, and his answer is just to attack somebody else with a name. . . . Will you give a detailed answer on foreign policy any time you're asked about it?"

10:50 — Wallace plays a Kasich campaign ad suggesting that Trump will name Russian President Vladimir Putin as his running mate. Wallace asks Kasich if he thinks Trump is "naive" on foreign policy. Kasich won't answer: "I'm not biting!"

10:56 — Baier asks all the candidates if they'll stand by their pledge to support the nominee. Rubio goes first: "I'll support the Republican nominee. I'll support Donald if he's the nominee." Cruz says: "Yes, because I gave my word that I would." Kasich says yes . . . but "sometimes he makes it a little bit hard!" Trump: "Yes, I will."

That's all.

Live-blogging the last 2016 Republican debate before Super Tuesday

I'll be live-blogging the debate here. Keep reloading this post for more updates. This will be the first Republican debate since Jeb Bush dropped out.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, and the New Republic.

The candidates walk out one by one, standing in front of the lecterns. Trump shakes hands with Cruz and Rubio. Former President George H.W. Bush is in the audience.

8:43 — Ben Carson uses his opening statement to address all the other candidates by name and say we won't solve America's problems by "trying to destroy each other."

8:44 — John Kasich gives us a pep talk: "Shoot for the stars! America's great, and you can do it!"

8:45 — Marco Rubio says this is the time for the Republican party to decide whether it's going to be a party that appeals to America's "hopes and fears" (Rubio) or its "angers and fears" (Trump).

8:45 — Ted Cruz starts out: "Welcome to Texas!" (The debate is in Houston.)

8:46 — Donald Trump begins his opening statement predictably: "My whole theme is: Make America great again." Our borders are "like Swiss cheese."

8:47 — Wolf Blitzer asks Trump about Cruz's claim that Trump is for "amnesty," since Trump would deport all illegal immigrants but then let "the good ones" come back to the US. Trump says: "He was in charge of amnesty! He was the leader!" Cruz responds by simply defending his own policy on illegal immigration, without taking the bait to attack Trump.

8:50 — Rubio on Trump's immigration stance: "A lot of these positions that he's taking are new to him." Rubio says Trump criticized Mitt Romney for talking about "self-deportation" in 2012. Trump says: "I criticized Mitt Romney for losing the election. . . . He ran one terrible campaign!"  Rubio says Trump is the only person on the stage who's hired people from other countries — for "jobs that Americans could have filled." Trump has a biting comeback that Rubio should've predicted: "I'm the only one on the stage who's hired people! . . . You haven't hired one person in your life!" [VIDEO.]

8:55 — Cruz does his usual attack on Rubio for being part of the "Gang of 8," which fought for "amnesty." But he adds a new attack against Trump for "funding the Gang of 8" — 3 Democratic Senators and 2 Republican Senators. Trump's retort to Cruz: "I get along with everybody; you get along with nobody."

8:57 — Both Rubio and Cruz gang up on Trump over a $1 million court judgment against him for hiring people illegally.

8:58 — When Trump attacks Cruz for improprieties in financial disclosures, Cruz tries to respond, but Wolf Blitzer cuts him off to ask Kasich a question. Blitzer should have let Cruz respond — he's entitled to respond to a direct attack. Yet Cruz doesn't complain (possibly because he doesn't have much of an answer — I believe he's admitted to those improprieties).

9:02 — Blitzer asks Trump how he'll make Mexico pay for the wall, when the current Mexican administration and former Mexican presidents has said that will never happen. "I will — and the wall just got 10 feet taller! . . . Mexico will pay for it, because they're not doing us any favors. . . . It's a small portion of the kind of money we lose and the deficits we have with Mexico." Blitzer asks if he'd start a trade war with Mexico over it, and Trump admits: "I don't mind a trade war!"

9:06 — Rubio says if Trump builds a wall, he'll use "illegal immigrant labor" to do it. Rubio asks Trump: "Why don't you make it in America?" Trump: "You don't know anything about business!" Rubio: "I don't know anything about bankrupting four companies!" Rubio says if Trump hadn't inherited $200 million, right now, he'd be "selling watches in Manhattan." Rubio also lets us know that Trump took $36,000 in tuition for "a fake university" called Trump University.

9:14 — Rubio points out that there are two Hispanic candidates and one black candidate on the stage, and declares: "We are the party of diversity, not the Democratic party!" Of course, the two Democratic candidates would be the first female president or the first Jewish president.

9:19 — Trump is asked about a Telemundo poll that says 3 in 4 Hispanic voters have an unfavorable view of him. "First of all, I don't trust anything Telemundo says. . . ." He points out that he won among Hispanics in Nevada. The moderator points out that he once said he loves Telemundo. Trump agrees: "I love Telemundo."

9:22 — Cruz is asked if we can trust Trump to nominate conservative Supreme Court Justices. Cruz already said in the last debate that Trump would nominate liberal Justices, but he doesn't repeat that tonight. Trump reminds us that Cruz supported President Bush's nomination of Chief Justice John Roberts, who was twice in the majority upholding Obamacare. Cruz says Trump would "cut a deal" on "religious liberty."

9:30 — Trump doesn't back down from his defense of Planned Parenthood in the previous debate: "Millions and millions of women are helped by Planned Parenthood . . . but I would defund it because I'm pro-life."

9:33 — Carson says Congress should "correct what the Supreme Court has done" on same-sex marriage (it's not clear how).

9:34 — Rubio attacks Trump for his recent (odd) statement that he likes the individual mandate in Obamacare. Trump says the "pre-existing condition" rule of Obamacare is the one part he'd keep. Of course, that doesn't explain Trump's previous statement, since the pre-existing condition rule is different from the individual mandate.

9:37 — Trump on health care: "I know the insurance companies! They're friends of mine! One of them's in the audience — he was laughing at me! He's not laughing so much anymore! Hi!"

9:37 — Rubio starts out his response on health care by saying: "Donald probably doesn't know about this, because he doesn't follow this issue very closely . . ."

9:39 — Rubio calls out Trump for repeatedly saying he's going to get rid of the barriers preventing health insurance for being sold across state lines: "Now he's repeating himself!" Trump: "I don't repeat myself! I don't repeat myself! . . . Here's the guy who repeats himself! I watched him repeat himself five times four weeks ago!" Rubio: "I saw you repeat yourself five times five seconds ago! . . . I see him repeat himself every night! . . . Everyone's dumb; he's going to make America great again; we're going to win, win, win; he's winning in the polls . . ." [VIDEO.]

9:43 — Kasich says he'll "damp down the cost of health care." Shouldn't that be "tamp down"?

9:45 — I'm not paying attention to Carson's spiel on health care. He's no longer relevant.

9:47 — Cruz paints Trump as a liberal: "He says Planned Parenthood is wonderful. . . . For decades, Donald has been advocating socialized medicine." Cruz says he's a contrast because he'd repeal Obamacare. Of course, Trump says he's against "socialized medicine" and Obamacare. Trump says he'll "make great deals" on health care, and he won't "let people die in the streets." Rubio is aghast at Trump's statement about not letting people die in the streets: "That's what Democrats say!"

9:51 — Trump is asked how he'll cut down on the debt. "Waste, fraud, and abuse." (Of course, every politician claims to be against government waste — that's easier said than done.) And he'll abolish the Department of Education and the EPA. Wolf Blitzer points out that abolishing those agencies would save less than $100 billion, which won't go very far.

9:55 — Trump is asked about Romney's recent statement that Trump should disclose his tax returns. "You don't learn anything about someone's wealth from tax returns. You learn it from a statement," which he filed on time. Also: "I'm being audited now, so I can't give [my return] until that's finished."

9:57 — Trump shoots down Hugh Hewitt while he's just starting to ask Trump a question: "Are you going to ask anyone else a question?! Every single question goes to me?! I know I'm good for ratings, but this is ridiculous!" Then Trump gratuitously says no one listens to Hewitt's radio show.

9:59 — Rubio goes back to the debt issue, saying Trump didn't give a "serious answer" on the debt.

10:01 — Cruz says Trump won't be able to attack Hillary Clinton over the Clinton Foundation, since Clinton would come back that Trump donated to her. Then Cruz brings up Rubio's earlier point about Trump University — and adds that a trial in a "fraud case" over the university has been scheduled for July, and the mainstream media will have a field day covering Trump's testimony. Trump says it's a frivolous lawsuit that he'll easily win; he could've settled it, but wanted to go to trial "on principle."

10:11 — Trump is asked about his previous statement that he'd be "neutral" as between the Israelis and Palestinians. Trump stands by his statement, saying it would undermine his negotiating position if he made it clear from the outset he was taking a side. "It doesn't do any good to start demeaning [Israel's] neighbors."

10:15 — Rubio condescends to Trump, which has been his strategy all night: "He might not realize it, but saying he'd be neutral is an anti-Israel answer. You cannot be an honest broker in a dispute where one said has been acting in bad faith." Trump comes back that he has negotiating experience and Rubio doesn't. Rubio objects: "The Palestinians are not a real estate deal, Donald!" Trump: "A deal is a deal." Rubio: "A deal is not a deal when you're negotiating with terrorists!" [VIDEO.]

10:18 — Kasich is asked if his previous statements in support of "regime change" in North Korea means he'd go to war with the country. Kasich resists the question: "I don't have to say exactly what that means. I have been doing foreign policy a long time. You don't have to spell everything out. . . . I have put it on the table that I would love to see regime change in North Korea."

10:22 — Carson lists all the issues he hasn't been asked about, so the moderator says, "This is your moment!" So he goes through his answer to all those issues. On taxes, he talks about being audited by the IRS. "They didn't find anything, because I'm honest. The IRS is not honest, and we need to get rid of them."

10:29 — Cruz accuses Trump of "writ[ing] checks to politicians that are undermining Israel" for 4 decades. Trump doesn't deny that, but says he's very pro-Israel, and Cruz is "a politician — all talk, no action." Trump points to Rubio and says, "He can't win for the obvious reason," then points to Cruz and says, "He can't win because he's a liar." Carson chimes in: "Can somebody attack me, please?" Cruz retorts: "Falsely accusing somebody of lying is itself a lie, and it's something Donald does daily!" Trump uses that as an opportunity to bring up the Cruz campaign's false statement on the day of the Iowa caucus that Carson seemed to have dropped out.

10:34 — The debate completely breaks down as Trump, Cruz, and Rubio all talk over each other for minutes on end. Cruz says Trump has been funding "liberal Democratic politicans" for 4 decades. Trump points out that he funded Cruz. Rubio: "He never funded me!" Trump agrees — he didn't want to fund Rubio — but points out that Rubio sent his book to Trump with a signed note saying Trump was "doing great." Rubio: "Yeah, on your reality TV show!" [VIDEO.]

10:38 — Rubio is asked about the Justice Department's request to Apple to unlock the iPhone of one of the San Bernardino killers. "Apple doesn't want to do it because they think it hurts their 'brand.' Well, let me tell you, their brand is not superior to the national security of the United States of America." Cruz says Rubio has come around to Cruz's position on that issue, but was wishy-washy at a recent town hall.

10:40 — Kasich says Obama should have brought Apple and the government into a room and "locked the door" till they reached an agreement on the iPhone.

10:41 — Trump is asked why we don't need a wall on the Canadian border in addition to the Mexican border. Trump says we don't have as many problems with Canada — and it would be physically harder to build that wall.

10:49 — In his closing statement, Carson tells us to "think about": "What kind of person do you want your children to emulate?" He turns his palms to us, with his arms outstretched, and alludes to his career as a neurosurgeon: "These hands, by the grace of God, have saved many lives." I wonder if he knows this will be his last debate — and that was his swan song.

10:51 — Rubio uses his closing statement to urge us to "get rid of this silliness — this looniness!"

10:53 — Trump lists his goals (e.g. "getting rid of Obamacare and replacing it with something so much better") and closes by saying: "I will get it done. Politicians will never get it done."

The New Republic's Alex Shephard has a sharp analysis:

Everyone is going to say Marco Rubio won this debate. He took the fight to Trump. And he sidelined Ted Cruz, making this look like a two man race, not a three (or five, I guess) man race. This was a big narrative win for Rubio. . . .

It’s possible that his performance will check Trump’s momentum, but Trump’s support, as many polls have shown, has largely calcified: Many of Trump’s many, many supporters decided to vote for him long ago. And in terms of policy, Rubio and Cruz both spent most of their energy attacking Trump from the right, which doesn’t touch his greatest strength as a candidate.

[quoting a tweet by Jamelle Bouie:] Trump is strong with moderate and liberal Republicans, and working-class Reps. "We're not going to let them die in the streets" is for them.

While it’s true that Trump didn’t have a great debate performance, it’s also true that he rarely does. He doesn’t have to: His rallies are treated as national events, and he’s miles ahead of his opponents as a campaigner.

Live-blogging the last Republican debate before the first primary

I'm going to live-blog tonight's Republican debate, the only one in between the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Keep reloading this post for more updates.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, and the New American Perspective (a new website co-founded by Alex Knepper).

As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly without a transcript, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate.

8:17 — As the candidates are announced and most of them walk to their podiums, Donald Trump and Ben Carson stay near the back! When Carson finally walks up to the stage but Trump stays back, the moderator announces Trump again, saying: "Lastly, we welcome . . . Donald Trump" — but there are two empty podiums! Chris Christie points out who's missing: "What about Kasich? Can I introduce Kasich?" [Added later: Carson explains it — he just couldn't hear his name being called.]




8:20 — Trump says he has "the best temperament" to be president. "I talked about Muslims. We have a problem. Nobody wanted to talk about the problem." He also reminds us that he was against the Iraq war — "others would be much faster" on the "trigger."

8:23 — Ted Cruz keeps tapping his lectern, making a loud, annoying noise in the mic.

8:24 — Trump is referring to himself in the third person more often than in the past: "We're going to win, with Trump. We're not going to back down, with Trump." Does he think he lost Iowa because he didn't have enough name recognition?

8:26 — Ben Carson eloquently addresses the false rumors spread by the Cruz campaign on the night of the Iowa caucus that Carson was dropping out. Carson points out how absurd it would be for him to drop out at the last minute after so many people had put so much effort into supporting him. "One of them even died." Cruz apologizes. Alex Knepper says:

“Easier to ask forgiveness than permission,” isn’t it, Sen. Cruz?

8:29 — Marco Rubio is asked about the fact that he's a first-term Senator, as Obama was when he was elected. After listing his legislative accomplishments, he argues that Obama's inexperience wasn't the problem — "he knew exactly what he was doing!" Christie responds sharply: "You have not been involved in a consequential decision where you had to be held accountable." Christie also points out that one of the things Rubio listed about his experience was a bill he didn't even vote on. "That's not leadership — that's truancy!" When Rubio tries to respond, Christie keeps ridiculing Rubio for his "25-second memorized speeches."

Most of the commentary seems to be that Christie is getting the better of his tussles with Rubio. Rubio does seem more weak and on the defensive than usual. But remember, Cruz had a weak debate shortly before the Iowa caucus, and that didn't stop him from winning.

Alex Knepper seems to think Rubio had a good response to the inexperience question:

The 'Republican Obama' attack might fall flat with Republican voters because a lot of them would love a Republican Obama: they think Obama has fundamentally transformed the country in the image of progressivism, and they would love someone who can fundamentally transform the country in the image of conservatism.

8:38 — Cruz blames "the first Clinton administration" (an odd phrase at this point) for North Korea's launch of a long-range missile earlier today.

8:42 — When John Kasich is asked about the North Korean missile, he starts out weak and tone-deaf, changing the subject to saying his "town hall meetings" are more "fun" than this debate has been.

8:48 — Christie says Obama is "for paying ransom for hostages."

8:52 — On immigration, Cruz says: "We're going to build a wall . . ." Trump makes a face at this, which gets a laugh. Cruz says: "Since Donald enjoyed that, I've got somebody in mind to build it!"

8:56 — Rubio and Christie are tangling again, this time on immigration, with the same dynamics we've seen in this and other debates: Rubio justifies his Senate record, while Christie mocks the whole idea of Congress and says only someone who's held an executive office, like Christie, can lead.

9:01 — When Carson is asked about health care, he says: "I was hoping to get a chance to talk about North Korea. I was the only one who didn't get a chance to do that." He hasn't been saying much in this debate.

9:03 — Trump is asked about eminent domain. "Eminent domain is an absolute necessity . . . for our country. Without it, you wouldn't have roads, you wouldn't have schools, you wouldn't have bridges." He also points out that compensation is constitutionally required: "When eminent domain is used on someone's property, that person gets a fortune!" Jeb Bush says those kinds of things are fine because they're for a "public purpose," but Trump tried to take an "elderly woman's" property and use it for "a limousine parking lot for his casinos." Trump says he didn't do that, but Bush says: "You tried!"

9:16 — Trump is asked about the charges that he's not a real conservative. He says "conservative" is "a very important word," and it's rooted in the word "conserve." "We want to conserve our money. We want to conserve our wealth."

9:18 — The moderator tells Trump that Christie has encouraged people who go to Trump rallies to ask Trump a simple question: "How?" So the moderator asks Trump "how" he'll create jobs. That question is framed to sound tough, but it's actually a softball — all Trump has to do is pitch his tax plan and claim it'll create jobs.

9:20 — Kasich says: "We have grown government at the rate of inflation." I understand that this is supposed to mean he's kept a tight rein on government, but he could have phrased that more effectively for the Republican primaries. Republican voters are going to be turned off by hearing: "We have grown government . . ."

I missed some stuff here because the ABC News feed keeps cutting out and going to an ad.

9:26 — Cruz is asked about his plan to "carpet-bomb" ISIL. He says it would be "targeted," not "indiscriminate." Cruz says ISIL has something called "Jihadist University." "Why is that building still standing? It should be rubble. However, I would be willing to wait until freshman orientation before launching those bombings."

9:31 — While Rubio is giving a long answer about how to fight ISIL, I'm thinking Carson must feel like he's getting the O'Malley treatment. [Added later: Indeed, Carson spoke the least.]

9:33 — Trump talks about the need to cut off ISIL's "banking channels." "Nobody knows banking like I do. . . . It's going to dry up very quickly."

9:35 — Bush says America has to get more aggressive against terrorism — but he sounds lackluster when he says this. That's Bush's problem: his style doesn't match his substance. For instance, he's called himself a "disrupter" — but he seems as conventional as anyone.

9:36 — A few minutes after I commented about how Carson hasn't had much to say (9:33), Carson quips: "I'm not here just to add beauty to the stage!"

9:38 — Cruz says he's "joined with Senator McCain" by opposing waterboarding as a general matter, but he doesn't consider it torture and wouldn't rule it out in dire circumstances.

9:39 — Trump: "I'd bring back waterboarding — and I'd bring back a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding!"

9:48 — Kasich makes a contrived attempt at generating excitement: "If I'm president, go out and get a seatbelt, because there's going to be so much happening in the first hundred days, it'll make your head spin!"

9:51 — Cruz tells the wrenching story of his half-sister's heroin addiction, which ended with her death a few years ago.

9:53 — Christie on drug addiction: "This is a disease. It's not a moral failing. . . . I'm pro-life, not just for the nine months in the womb. It gets a lot harder after that."

9:54 — Trump is asked how he'll run against Hillary Clinton considering her potential to make history by being the first female president. Trump doesn't specifically address the gender angle; he simply declares that he's going to beat her by a lot.

9:57 — Carson is asked the same question. He doesn't talk about gender — or race. He says he'd turn the election into "a referendum about honesty vs. deceitfulness."

10:11 — Christie is asked whether he'd quarantine Americans to prevent the spread of the Zika virus. "You bet I would!"

10:13 — Rubio is asked whether women should be required to register with the military in the event there's a draft. Rubio says yes — including for combat. Bush agrees.

10:17 — Christie says: "There's no reason young women should be discriminated against in registering for the Selective Service." He talks as if it's just discrimination against women — but it's mainly discrimination against men, who are the only ones required to stand ready to be enslaved to fight in a war.

10:25 — Trump says if he's president, "waste, fraud, and abuse" in government will "disappear quickly." That's preposterous — every politician claims to be against government waste. If it were so easy to get rid of, that would have happened a long time ago.

10:31 — There's a "lightning round" of questions about the Super Bowl. Why does the media think it's a good idea to bring up sports on a political show?

10:44 — After Cruz gives his closing statement, Trump says: "He got Ben Carson's votes, but we won't say that . . ."

Alex Knepper's verdict:

Winners: Christie, Kasich, Bush; Wash: Trump, Cruz, Carson; Loser: Rubio. There’s just no question that Rubio among all the candidates suffered the greatest number of blows. Rubio simply was not prepared for the onslaught from the governors, who demonstrated a real hunger.

I agree that Rubio was weak and had the worst night. But I also thought Kasich was pretty awkward — I don't understand why people are saying he did well.

Live-blogging the last 2016 Republican debate before the voting starts

It's also the first time Donald Trump hasn't participated in a 2016 Republican debate. I'll be live-blogging it here. Keep reloading this post for more updates.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, the New Republic, Althouse (my mom), and Alex Knepper.

9:03 — Megyn Kelly starts by asking Ted Cruz about "the elephant not in the room tonight — Donald Trump." Cruz responds: "I'm a maniac. Everyone on this stage is stupid, fat, and ugly. And Ben, you're a terrible surgeon. Now that we've gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way . . ." [VIDEO.]

9:06 — Marco Rubio says Trump is "the greatest show on earth," but the election isn't about him — it's about America, "the greatest country in the world." He also takes a jab at Hillary Clinton for her recent suggestion that future-former-President Obama could be a good choice for Supreme Court.

9:07 — Jeb Bush: "I kind of miss Donald Trump! He was a little teddy bear to me!"

9:08 — Bush breaks some news: he's part of "the establishment."

9:10 — Chris Christie brushes off a question about whether he's too much about compromising and reaching across the aisle. He says that kind of thing just doesn't matter to the 45-year-old construction worker who's lost money under the Obama administration.

9:11 — Rand Paul is asked if he made a mistake by not getting an earlier start in embracing his father, Ron Paul, who might have caused more of the excitement of his 2008 and 2012 campaigns to rub off on his son.

9:12 — Cruz gives a shout-out to the Pauls for trying to audit the Federal Reserve.

9:13 — Rubio says: "I respect Rand." Rubio's tautological reason for this: "He believes in everything he stands for."

9:16 — John Kasich is asked if he's too establishment. He says he isn't in the outsider lane or the establishment lane; he's in "the Kasich lane." However, he sounds pretty establishment, talking about how he's worked with Democrats and balanced the budget.

9:17 — Carson: "I don't think you have to be a politician to tell the truth. In fact, sometimes it's the other way around." He actually said something a little different because he jumbled his words — staying true to his statement that he wouldn't have any "polished political speeches."

9:19 — Cruz talks about how he's going to destroy ISIL, but denies that he's "talking tough" on ISIL. Rubio responds by saying Cruz's record on military spending is the same as Rand Paul's.

9:20 — Rubio refers to Dabiq, Syria, then clarifies: "Not Dubuque[, Iowa]! I pronounced that incorrectly last time!" Alex Knepper wonders why he'd say that, other than "nerves." My answer: So viewers won't mishear it — especially Iowa viewers who are going to caucus in 4 days.

9:26 — Christie forcefully attacks Hillary Clinton for saying she used a private server for email "for her convenience." "She put the nation's security at risk — for her convenience. . . . Hillary Clinton is not qualified to be president."

9:27 — Cruz tussles with a moderator, Chris Wallace, over whether Cruz is allowed to respond after Wallace's question to Christie mentioned Cruz. Wallace says no, because Christie's answer didn't attack Cruz. Cruz keeps trying to cut in, as if he doesn't understand the rule Wallace explains over and over. [VIDEO.]

9:30 — After Bush criticizes Cruz, Wallace finally lets Cruz respond. But Cruz doesn't have a substantive response — instead, he whines about how many of the questions have asked the candidates to attack him. (This prompts loud booing from the audience.) Wallace retorts: "It is a debate, sir!" Cruz coyly threatens to walk off the stage if there are too many negative questions about him — an allusion to Trump's absence. [Added later: After I point out that Cruz was being facetious, Alex Knepper says, "I thought he was being serious! I guess not. Didn't deliver the line very well." My response: "It's safe to say that if as savvy a political observer as you thought he was being serious, his sarcasm wasn't effective enough to work on prime-time TV a few days before Iowa."] [VIDEO.]

9:34 — Rubio says he's open to closing down mosques, diners, etc. where people are being "radicalized," despite the concerns raised by Megyn Kelly about infringing on the First Amendment right to free speech. Rand Paul strongly disagrees with Rubio.

9:38 — Megyn Kelly asks Ben Carson about a Muslim woman who recently asked Hillary Carson whether America is the best place for her to raise her children. Carson responds toughly: "We need to stop allowing political correctness to dictate our policies — because it's going to kill us if we don't!" 

9:49 — Christie is asked if he can name just one thing the federal government does that he doesn't think it should do. "Yeah! Ya want one? . . . Let's get rid of funding for Planned Parenthood." The moderator, Brett Baier, asks if he has "anything bigger than that." Christie says he can't think of anything "bigger than the murder of children in the womb."

9:52 — Why does Bush always seem to get the questions about minor issues? He's asked about statehood for Puerto Rico. Earlier, he was asked about allegations that the Wounded Warrior Project spends too much of its money on itself. In an earlier debate, he was asked about whether to regulate betting on fantasy football.

9:59 — Megyn Kelly plays a long clip show of Rubio in about 2009 talking about how phrases like a "path to citizenship" are "code" for "amnesty." Then Kelly suggests he then supported amnesty once he later became a Senator. Rubio denies he's flip-flopped. Bush responds that he's "kind of confused" by what Rubio's said — although Bush admits: "I supported you, 'cause you asked me to!" Bush also plugs his book on immigration — "You can get it for $2.99 on Amazon!" [A little later, an Amazon reviewer gave the book 1 star for being much more expensive than $2.99.]

10:04 — Kelly plays a clip show of Cruz talking about what he now claims is a poison pill he used to kill Rubio's immigration reform. In the clip, Cruz passionately declares: "I don't want immigration reform to fail! I want immigration reform to pass!" After the clip, Kelly asks a devastating question: "Was that all an act? It was pretty convincing!" Cruz starts his response by talking about the short word count of his amendment to the bill relative to the long length of the bill. How many voters really care about those kinds of legislative metrics? [VIDEO of the Cruz and Rubio clip shows.]

10:08 — Paul and Rubio both say Cruz is lying on immigration. Rubio to Cruz: "You want to trump Trump on immigration! We're not going to beat Hillary Clinton with someone who's willing to say or do anything to win an election!" Cruz responds with back-handed compliments about Rubio: "He's very charming. He's very smooth." [VIDEO.]

10:10 — Christie says it's fine for Rubio or Cruz to "change their mind," but the difference is that Christie, as a governor, will "admit it."

10:12 — Carson seems so irrelevant by this point.

10:17 — Bush takes a veiled shot at Trump: "This is bean bag compared to what the Clinton machine is going to do to the Republican nominee."

10:17 — For the second time, Rubio criticizes Hillary Clinton's comments about the possibility of appointing Obama to the Supreme Court. I understand why he's bringing it up, but is that really important enough to be his repeated refrain in this debate?

10:19 — Rubio: "I think Bernie Sanders is a good candidate for president — of Sweden!" [VIDEO.]

10:20 — Christie is asked about the New Jersey bridge closing scandal. He says three investigations were done and showed: "I knew nothing." [But WaPo's Fact Checker says only one of the investigations reached that conclusion.]

10:25 — The moderator announces that they're going to start talking about "social issues" to appeal to evangelicals. This is where I tune out . . .

10:30 — Rubio: "I will always allow my faith to influence everything I do."

10:38 — Kasich might be the best-qualified but the least interesting to listen to.

10:43 — Rand Paul is asked if we should hold Hillary Clinton responsible for Bill Clinton's behavior toward women. Paul says if any CEO acted toward a 22-year-old intern the way Bill Clinton acted toward Monica Lewinsky, the CEO would be fired and never hired again. Paul suggests that this could make it harder for Hillary Clinton to call for women's rights, but he doesn't address the tougher issue of whether Hillary had any role in enabling or defending Bill's treatment of other women.

10:56 — Christie starts his closing statement with something he's said in a previous debate — that on September 11, 2001, he didn't hear from his wife for hours, while she was trapped in her building near the World Trade Center, and he had to contemplate the possibility of becoming a single father of three. "I've faced it. I've prosecuted terrorists."

10:56 — Bush has a bad habit of tripping over his prepared words. He's just not a compelling speaker, and he's running against several compelling speakers.

10:58 — In Cruz's closing statement, he mentions that it's now going to be "up to the men and women of Iowa to decide." The phrase "men and women" has long been used to refer to the military, but I feel like this election it's been used to refer to voters more than ever before. Has "people" become a bad word?

The Washington Post lists the "winners and losers." I agree that Cruz was one of the latter:

Cruz did the thing I hate the most in debates -- complain about the rules -- when he tried to game a bit more talking time and got shut down by moderator Chris Wallace. The Texas Senator's joking threat that if he kept taking incoming from the other candidates he might leave the stage (Donald Trump reference!) fell flat. He was on the wrong end of a scolding by Paul over his conservative righteousness. And, time and time again, Cruz found himself insisting that on a panoply of issues -- military spending, immigration etc. -- everyone was either wrong about his position or didn't understand it well enough. That's too much defense for Cruz to play -- especially in a debate without Trump.

Why Cruz's attack on "New York values" was both wrong and against the Republican party's interests

National Review's Kevin Williamson writes:

What to make of Senator Ted Cruz? He is a very, very smart man who apparently believes that the median Republican presidential primary voter is very, very dumb. There’s some evidence for that proposition — Donald Trump still leads in the national polls. . . .

But sneering at New York values isn’t very smart for conservatives. Not in the long run.

It has been said that you cannot understand America without understanding New York City, and the first thing to understand about New York is that it isn’t very much like the rest of America. That is true, unquestionably. But New York’s traditional virtues — its brashness, its hustle and enterprise, its anything-is-possible attitude — are the traditional American virtues, just as the city’s vices — its materialism, its self-importance, its fascination with the transitory and the impermanent — are the American vices, too. Conservatives, of all people, should be more attuned to the virtues of the nation’s commercial center; let the nation’s art-school dropouts sneer at that great collision of money and culture. . . .

To the extent that “New York values” is another way of saying “urban values” — and it is, to a great extent — conservatives would do well to develop a keener appreciation of them. (Never mind, for the moment, the notion that Donald Trump’s values are identical to the values of New York, in which he is a figure of fun rather than a figure of respect.) From a matter of pure self-interest, Republicans would be in much better shape if their presidential candidates did not start in an electoral hole, with California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois wrapped up in a bow for the Democrats. It isn’t California ranchers and Illinois farmers who have handed those states to the Left, but city-dwelling people who believe with some reason — Ted Cruz has just given them another — that Republicans hate them. . . .

When Ronald Reagan was elected, 74 percent of the U.S. population lived in cities; today it is 82 percent. From 2000 to 2010, the nation’s population grew by 9.7 percent — but the city population grew by 12.1 percent. And those urbanites are not entirely pleased with the Democratic monopolies that govern most of them: In Flint, the Democrats are literally poisoning the children; in Atlanta, the schools are so corrupt that teachers and administrators had to be sent to prison; elsewhere, urban Americans are literally up in arms (Molotov cocktails, at least) over their treatment at the hands of the city powers they interact with most often: the police. New York City is sliding back into pre-Giuliani chaos. And what are Republicans doing? Sneering at “New York values,” when they should be seeking to satisfy the best of those values, such as the entrepreneurial spirit and the hunger for advancement — which are, after all, the best of American values, too.

Live-blogging the first main Republican debate since terrorist attacks in Paris and California

I'll be live-blogging the debate here — while trying to make risotto! Keep reloading this post for more updates.

There's more live-blogging going on by National Review, TPM, Althouse (my mom), and Alex Knepper.

8:49 — Rand Paul gives an opening statement strongly bearing down on his unorthodox views on foreign policy and terrorism.

8:50 — John Kasich says his daughter doesn't like politics because it's too darn loud.

8:53 — Carly Fiorina says, "It's time to take our country back" — but "insults won't take our country back." She describes how she's been repeatedly tested, including being "called every B word in the book."

8:54 — Jeb Bush's theme (in his attempt to salvage his campaign) is that these are "serious times," so we need a serious leader like him.

8:56 — Marco Rubio reminisces about his grandfather telling him they're in the greatest country in the history of the world — in contrast with President Obama, who wants America to be more like the rest of the world.

8:58 — Ben Carson begins his opening statement with a moment of silence for the victims of the attack on San Bernardino.

9:01 — Moderator Wolf Blitzer asks Donald Trump if "the way to make America great again is to isolate ourselves from the world."

9:03 — When Bush is asked about Trump's proposal to bar non-American Muslims from entering the country, Bush hits Trump hard, calling him "unhinged" and unfit to be commander-in-chief. "He is a chaos candidate, and he would be a chaos president." [VIDEO.]

9:06 — Cruz is asked about Trump's proposal, and doesn't take the bait to attack Trump. He briefly says he "understand[s]" why Trump proposed it, and quickly pivots to attacking Obama.

9:09 — Fiorina focuses on technology, noting that social media as we know it didn't exist when the Patriot Act was enacted.

9:13 — Kasich emphasizes the need to work with our Arab and European allies.

9:14 — Cruz stands by his vote for a law to reform our "bulk collection of metadata of law-abiding citizens." Rubio disagrees: "We are now at a time when we need more tools, not less tools." Cruz retorts by calling Rubio a liar, saying he "knows that what he is saying is not true."

9:17 — Paul agrees with Cruz's vote but takes a much stronger position, saying the metadata collection made us "less safe." Paul adds that Rubio is "the weakest of all the candidates on immigration" since he's for "an open border." "Rubio has more of an allegiance to Chuck Schumer and the liberals than to conservative policy." [VIDEO.]

9:20 — Christie slams all three of the Senators who were talking about metadata — Cruz, Rubio, and Paul — suggesting that they've "never had to make a consequential decision." Christie declares that the viewers "don't care" about "which bill these guys like more."

9:22 — Bush on surveillance by the FBI and NSA: "We shouldn't even be talking about it!"

9:26 — Fiorina points out that Obama should have consulted with "the private sector" while creating the infamous healthcare.gov.

9:33 — Alex Knepper observes:

The right whines about 'political correctness' so often that it is starting to truly degrade the power of the term, much like 'racist' doesn't have the impact it used to due to overuse by the left.

9:36 — Another dust-up between Rubio and Cruz on fighting terrorism.

9:37 — Trump is asked why he supports killing terrorists' families. Trump says: "That will make [terrorists] think, because they may not care much about their lives, but they do, believe it or not, care about their families." Bush says that's "crazy." Trump retorts that Bush is "very nice," but "we need toughness." They then descend into crosstalk, aggressively interrupting each other. Trump: "I know you're trying to build up your energy, Jeb, but it's not working!"

9:43 — Paul says Trump's proposal on the internet would require getting rid of the First Amendment, and his position on terrorists' families would require us to withdraw from the Geneva Convention. Trump responds incredulously: "So they can kill us, but we can't kill them?!" When Trump clarifies his position on the internet, the audience boos, and Trump directly tells the audience he can't understand why they're booing: "These are people who want to kill us!"

9:48 — Rubio sounds impressive with his knowledge of Syria, but Paul interjects: "That's factually incorrect."

9:50 — Fiorina, who explicitly refused to play the gender card in the first main debate that included her (see 10:55 here), quotes Margaret Thatcher: "If you want something said, ask a man; if you want something done, ask a woman." [Ian Tuttle of National Review objects: "Conservatives are respecters of individuals, and of reasoned arguments over mating calls, and should act and speak accordingly."]

9:54 — As CNN cuts to a commercial and the camera backs away from the stage, we see some revealing body language: Cruz shakes Trump's hand, and Trump pats Cruz on the back, while Trump, with a serious look on his face, appears to say just a couple words to Cruz.

9:58 — Cruz maintains that the focus should be on killing terrorists rather than promoting democracy.

9:59 — Cruz mocks Obama for seeking to work with "moderate rebels." "It's like a purple unicorn — they never exist!" [VIDEO.]

10:01 — Trump pauses for a few seconds while a protester yells during his time. Then Trump says we should have taken the $4 or 5 trillion we spent on "nation building," which we got "nothing" out of, and instead spent it on infrastructure in the United States. Fiorina: "That's exactly what Obama said!"

10:04 — In response to a series of questions about whether to try to spread democracy in the Middle East, Carson points out that on airplanes, the announcement says that in case of an emergency, you should put on your own oxygen mask before assisting others. "We need oxygen now."

10:07 — Cruz obnoxiously keeps speaking while Blitzer tries to cue Hugh Hewitt to ask Trump a question, and the audience boos Cruz.

10:11 — My mind was starting to wander amid all this foreign policy talk, but then Kasich grabbed my attention by saying: "It's time that we punched the Russians in the nose."

10:14 — Christie calls Obama a "feckless weakling." Christie says he'd shoot down Russian planes in a no-fly zone over Syria, even if this would risk war with Russia. "It's called a no-fly zone. Maybe it's because I'm from New Jersey — I just have this plain-language hang-up." Paul responds, while pointing to Christie: "If you're in favor of World War III, you have your candidate!"

10:16 — Bush's explanation for why he'd be better than Trump at dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin: "I know what I don't know. I will seek out the advice." Knepper says:

Jeb "Socrates" Bush knows what he doesn't know! (But can he be as wise as Rumsfeld and consider what he doesn't know he doesn't know?)

10:18 — Trump scolds the moderators for starting so many of their questions, especially in the earlier debate (with the lower-tier candidates) with asking about what "Mr. Trump" has said. Trump says it's "in order to get ratings," and it's "very unprofessional." Bush suggests that if Trump thinks this debate is "tough," he isn't ready to be president. Trump sarcastically responds, "Oh yeah, you're a tough guy, Jeb!" [VIDEO.]

10:21 — Carson says just because he's quiet and not "boisterous" doesn't mean he wouldn't be a strong leader. "I don't do a lot of talking. I do a lot of doing." (So there, Carly Fiorina!)

10:25 — CNN gets Cruz and Rubio to go after each other for a third time, this time over immigration. CNN has used a split screen of the two every time this happens, clearly trying to play up the rivalry between the two 44-year-old first-term Senators. Yet again, Cruz accuses Rubio of lying about Cruz's record: "It's like saying the firefighter and the arsonist have the same record because they're both at the scene of the fire." [VIDEO.] [Added later: Politico says this was the #1 "takeaway" from the debate:]

Rubio is the Barack Obama of 2008: He rises to big moments, lives up to the hype, and is a gifted communicator and performer. There’s a reason Hillary Clinton allies fear Rubio, and are suddenly publicly pushing the idea that the GOP nominee will be Cruz, an opponent they would much prefer.

Rubio is better than Obama was at this point in ’08, and way more consistent. Tangling with Cruz, Rubio was much more detailed and convincing.

10:29 — Trump calls himself "very hard-line" on immigration. "You just need to speak to the people of Israel — walls work, if they're properly constructed. I know how to build."

10:34 — Paul is asked whether he'd send home the 2,000 Syrian refugees who have already been admitted to the US. He says he "hasn't taken a position" on that, but he wouldn't allow any new ones.

10:35 — A college student, asking a question by video, suggests that taking in Syrian refugees is biblically mandated. Christie responds directly to the student, saying his top priority as president would be to keep her and her family safe. (I wish he had added that the role of government is not to carry out biblical mandates.)

10:45 — I've found Carson dull throughout this debate. He tries to show off his knowledge by listing the antiquated weapons in our arsenal. I've been mostly tuning out this latter part of the debate — it's hard to pay attention to two hours of fast talk about foreign policy in the evening.

10:51 — Trump and Cruz are both asked about their willingness or unwillingness to attack each other in public. Trump pats Cruz on the back and says he's gotten to know Cruz better just in the last 3 or 4 days. At the beginning of Cruz's answer, Trump interjects: "You better not attack!" They both decline the invitation to attack each other.

10:54 — Trump is asked if he can assure us that he'll "run as a Republican and abide by the decision of the Republicans." "I really am. . . . I'm totally committed to the Republican Party. . . . I'll do everything in my power to beat Hillary Clinton." [VIDEO.]

11:03 — Bush stumbles through his closing statement. You can sense that he knows he's not doing enough in this debate.

11:06 — In Trump's closing statement (the last one of the night), he seems to be exhausted, running out of steam — as if he's one of those dolls who says a few recorded statements when you pull a string on its back, but the batteries are running low: "We aren't winning anymore . . . If I am president, we will win again. We will have a great, great country — greater than ever before."

Are Trump and Cruz right that "no tough questions" were asked of Clinton in the Democratic debate?

Donald Trump says (this is my transcript from watching the video embedded at that link):

We have to be treated a little bit fairly. As an example, Hillary Clinton — no tough questions! I mean, why didn't they ask about Bill? Why didn't they ask about all of the different things? No tough questions! Now, that was staged by the Democrats. And frankly, they did a very smart thing in the way they staged it. . . . Hillary had only softballs, all night long.

This is similar to what Ted Cruz said in the last debate — that the Republican debate stood in "contrast with the Democratic debate, where every fawning question from the media was, 'Which of you is more handsome and wise?'"

Well, Trump and Cruz must been watching some other Democratic debate that I haven't heard about. This was the first question in the Democratic debate I saw:

Secretary Clinton, I want to start with you. Plenty of politicians evolve on issues, but even some Democrats believe you change your positions based on political expediency. You were against same-sex marriage. Now you're for it. You defended President Obama's immigration policies. Now you say they're too harsh. You supported his trade deal dozen of times. You even called it the "gold standard". Now, suddenly, last week, you're against it. Will you say anything to get elected?

The moderator, Anderson Cooper, interrupted her answer to say:

Secretary Clinton, though, with all due respect, the question is really about political expediency. Just in July, New Hampshire, you told the crowd you'd, quote, "take a back seat to no one when it comes to progressive values." Last month in Ohio, you said you plead guilty to, quote, "being kind of moderate and center." Do you change your political identity based on who you're talking to?

Later in the debate, Clinton and all the other candidates were asked a series of questions about her emails — clearly not a topic she wants to discuss. That portion of the debate did end up helping her — but only because another candidate, Bernie Sanders, made a big show of coming to her defense. Even after that, Cooper kept trying to get other candidates to attack Clinton over her emails.

But even aside from the fact that Trump and Cruz are counting on people not remembering or not having watching the Democratic debate, I don't understand why Republican candidates are wasting their time whining about getting tough questions. It might be momentarily uncomfortable for the candidate getting the question, but that's what they signed up for. Even if you think some of the questions are unfair, they still help the party overall, by making sure the eventual nominee is someone who can take the heat. After all, they're sure to face even tougher questions in the general.

Look at it this way: who should want the Republicans to avoid being asked any tough or questionable or unfair or biased questions during the primaries? A staunch Democrat. Because if that ever happened, the Democrat could look forward to going up against a paper tiger.

Even if every single question was hostile in the Republican debate, that wouldn't show a liberal bias. That would help the Republicans. The harsher the scrutiny is now, the better the nominee will end up being — both because the voters will make a better choice (they won't vote for a candidate who failed all those tests) and because the nominee will be well-practiced in defending against the attacks (and if they are reprised in the general, the nominee will be better-positioned to brush them off as "old" and "discredited").

Live-blogging the Republican debate on the economy

I'll be live-blogging tonight's debate, which is supposed to focus on the economy. This is the first 2016 Republican debate without Scott Walker, so there should be more of a clear-cut opposition between Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.

As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly, so they might not be exactly verbatim, but I'll try to make them reasonably accurate (and I might go back and correct some of them later).

For other live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, Althouse (my mom), and Alex Knepper.

[Watch the debate here.]

[Here's the transcript.]

[Added later:] The debate took forever to start. Nicholas Kristof quips:

The presidential debate is starting at 8 pm, CNBC time.

8:17 — It's finally starting.

8:19 — The moderator asks all the candidates: "What is your biggest weakness, and what are you doing to address it?" John Kasich says "Good question," but doesn't answer the question — instead, he just attacks the other candidates and argues that he's better.

8:20 — Mike Huckabee's biggest weakness: "I try to live by the rules."

8:20 — Jeb Bush: "I am by my nature impatient, and this is not an endeavor that rewards that." Also, he "can't fake anger," but this process "rewards" it.

8:21 — Rubio's biggest weakness is "optimism."

8:21 — Donald Trump: "I trust people too much . . . and if they let me down, I find it hard to forgive."

8:22 — Ben Carson's biggest weakness was that he didn't see himself as president until lots of people told him he should be president.

8:22 — Fiorina says, with a big smile, that what other people said was her weakness in the last debate was that she didn't "smile" enough. [VIDEO.]

8:23 — Ted Cruz sarcastically says: "I'm too easy-going."

8:23 — Chris Christie brushes off the question and says he doesn't see much weakness on that stage — then he pivots to criticizes each of the three top Democratic candidates for separate reasons.

8:26 — Moderator John Harwood lists what he apparently considers to be some of Trump's more ridiculous proposals, including that he'd "make Americans better off because your greatness would replace the stupidity and incompetence of others." Trump agrees with that last point: "Right!" Then Harwood asks if this is "a comic-book version of a presidential campaign." Trump says: "It's not a comic book, and it's not a very nicely asked question." [VIDEO.]

8:31 — Kasich calls out Carson and Trump for their trite, implausible promises to make up for lost tax revenues by cutting "waste, fraud, and abuse."

8:31 — Trump comes back: "[Kasich] got lucky with a wonderful thing called fracking . . . and that's why Ohio is doing well." Trump also takes a shot at Kasich over being on the board of Lehman Brothers, the big bank which failed at the outset of the financial collapse of 2008. Kasich simply denies it: "I wasn't on the board of Lehman Brothers!" [VIDEO.] [Fact check.]

8:36 — Carly Fiorina says she'll reduce the federal tax code from 70,000 to 3 pages. The moderator looks and sounds incredulous: "Using really small type?!"

8:37 — Rubio is asked about how he's missing more votes than any other Senate running for president. He characterizes this as what "the Republican establishment" says: "Why don't you wait in line?" His response: "We're running out of time!" The moderator bluntly follows up: "Do you hate your job?" Rubio says this shows the liberal media's bias, since the media didn't question Barack Obama about missing most of his Senate votes when he was running for president in 2008.

8:39 — Bush finally attacks his former protege, Rubio: "Marco, . . . you should be showin' up to work. What is it, like, a French work week?" [VIDEO.]

8:43 — Question to Fiorina: "Your board fired you. I'm just wondering why we should hire you now?" Fiorina says her company was a "bloated, inept bureaucracy" before she showed up as "an outsider" and "saved 80,000 jobs." "I was fired over politics in the board room." She notes that CEOs are held "accountable" and even "criminally liable" — imagine if politicians were!

8:46 — The moderator asks Cruz about the debt limit, but instead of answering, he criticizes the questions for not being "substantive" and just "trying to get the candidates to tear into each other." He uses up all of his time, so he never gets to the substantive question. This seems like a contrived attempt by Cruz to have a "debate moment." [VIDEO.]

8:50 — The question about the debt limit goes to Paul, since Cruz missed his chance to answer it. Paul isn't worried about keeping the government open; he's worried about "bankrupting the American people."

8:53 — Huckabee says the government's fiscal attitude is "like a 400-pound man saying: I'm going to go on a diet but I'm going to eat a sack of Krispy Kremes before I do."

9:00 — Trump is asked about the bankruptcies of his Atlantic City casinos. "Bankruptcy is a broken promise. Why should the voters believe you now?" Trump gives the same answer he gave in the last debate when this was brought up: "I used the laws of the country to my benefit."

9:02 — Moderator Jim Cramer asks Carson about profiteering drug companies. Carson says they've "gone overboard," but says the solution is less regulation of businesses.

9:04 — Cramer asks Christie about GM's faulty ignition switch, which killed over 100 people; no one went to jail over it. Christie says he'd prosecute people over it. He also says he'd enforce laws against price gouging, which would be better than "Hillary Clinton's price controls" on pharmaceuticals.

9:08 — Fiorina on "crony capitalism": "This is how socialism starts: government starts a problem, so government tries to fix it. . . . The big and powerful use big and powerful government to their advantage."

9:10 — Rubio is asked about his personal financial problems, and whether he has "the maturity and the wisdom to lead this country." Rubio shoots down the moderator: "You just listed the Democrats' discredited attacks, and I'm not going to waste my 60 seconds going through them all."

9:14 — Cruz is asked about the lie that women earn 77 cents for every dollar men earn.

9:16 — Fiorina says: "It is the height of hypocrisy for Hillary Clinton talking about being the first woman president when every policy she espouses, and every single policy of President Obama, has been demonstrably bad for women." [VIDEO.]

My mom says:

This debate is so stressful and ugly. The moderators are so disrespectful and the candidates are all yelling. Almost all. Carson will never yell.

9:26 — Rubio: "For the life of me, I do not understand why we stopped doing vocational training in America."

9:28 — Moderator Becky Quick asks Trump about his supposed criticisms of Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Facebook, but Trump says he's never been critical of Zuckerberg. Quick haplessly asks: "Where did I read that you were critical of him?" Trump says: "I don't know, you folks write this stuff! . . . Somebody's really doing some bad fact-checking." [Here's your fact check!]

9:30 — Rubio: "The Democrats have the ultimate super PAC — it's called the mainstream media." He says the media has been saying last week was a great week for Hillary Clinton. "It was the week she got exposed as a liar" for telling the public that the Benghazi attack was sparked by a video, while privately saying it was a planned terrorist attack. [VIDEO of 9:28 and 9:30.]

9:31 — Cruz says the Federal Reserve's role should be more limited, and we should switch to the gold standard. Paul agrees: "We shouldn't have controls on the price of money."

9:33 — Carson is asked if he's been inconsistent on subsidies, but he admits "I was wrong" about oil subsidies. "All this stuff about picking winners and losers — this is a bunch of crap!" It hurts the poor and middle class, not the rich, who "don't care if a bar of soap goes up 10¢."

9:35 — Huckabee says today's runaway blimp is "a perfect analogy" for government: a "giant bag of gas" that we "couldn't get rid of . . . because we had too much money invested in it."

9:39 — Rubio is asked about an analysis by the (conservative) Tax Foundation, which said his tax plan saves twice as much for people at the high end than the low end. Rubio denies it and says the opposite. [Added later:] On Twitter, Harwood had said he was "CORRECTING" his "earlier tweet" about the Tax Foundation's analysis of Rubio's tax plan. Harwood's correction said: "Tax Foundation says Rubio benefits lowest 10% proportionally more (55.9) than top 1% (27.9%)." Then Harwood asked Rubio a question that said the opposite of that correction, and when Rubio correctly pointed out that Harwood's incorrect post had to be corrected, Harwood flatly denied it!

[Correction, added after the debate:] This was more complicated than I thought. They were actually both right; they were just talking about different things. Let's go to the transcript:

HARWOOD: Senator Rubio, . . . [t]he Tax Foundation . . . scored your tax plan and concluded that you give nearly twice as much of a gain in after-tax income to the top 1 percent as to people in the middle of the income scale. Since you’re the champion of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, don’t you have that backward?

RUBIO: No, that’s — you’re wrong. In fact, the largest after-tax gains is for the people at the lower end of the tax spectrum under my plan. . . .

HARWOOD: The Tax Foundation — just to be clear, they said the —

RUBIO: You wrote a story on it, and you had to go back and correct it.

HARWOOD: No, I did not.

RUBIO: You did. No, you did.

HARWOOD: Senator, the Tax Foundation said after-tax income for the top 1 percent under your plan would go up 27.9 percent. And people in the middle of the income spectrum, about 15 percent. . . .

RUBIO: Yeah, but that — because the math is, if you — 5 percent of a million is a lot more than 5 percent of a thousand. So yeah, someone who makes more money, numerically, it’s gonna be higher. But the greatest gains, percentage-wise, for people, are gonna be at the lower end of our plan, and here’s why: because in addition to a general personal exemption, we are increasing the per-child tax credit for working families.

See the problem? Harwood said Rubio's plan would lead to "twice as much of a gain in after-tax income to the top 1 percent as to people in the middle of the income scale." Rubio responded that "the largest after-tax gains is [sic] for the people at the lower end of the tax spectrum." As Jon Chait and Jon Cohn point out, both of those claims are accurate reflections of the Tax Foundation's analysis. Here's the relevant graph from the Tax Foundation:

(The Tax Foundation used both "static" and "dynamic" models of how Rubio's plan would affect after-tax income. The "dynamic" model, shown in blue, includes predictions about how the tax plan would affect the economy as a whole; the "static" model, shown in red, assumes the plan would have no effect on the economy.)

So, I regret that I originally assumed Rubio and Harwood were talking about the same thing; ideally, I should have looked at the transcript, noticed what Cohn calls Rubio's "sleight of hand" in shifting the discussion further down the income scale, and looked up the Tax Foundation's analysis to see that they were both apparently right about different things.

Now back to my original live-blog:

9:40 — Paul awkwardly asks what the rules are on when candidates can jump in to talk, and Quick says: "It's at the moderators' discretion." So Paul jumps in to say he's the only candidate who'd repeal payroll taxes.

9:42 — Kasich is asked whether we should legalize marijuana to get more tax revenues (which non-marijuana-using conservatives should want, since they won't have to pay as much in taxes). Kasich says no, because it would be "sending mixed signals to kids about drugs," and his state of Ohio is doing so well it doesn't need the extra revenue.

9:49 — The moderator points out that Trump has criticized "gun-free school zones," and is asked if he'd feel more comfortable if his employees showed up carrying guns. He says he "might." Then he cleverly pivots to an attack an President Obama: Trump says he carries a gun only some of the time, because he wants to be "unpredictable," unlike Obama, who broadcasts what he's going to do in advance, which empowers ISIL.

9:51 — The moderator shamelessly asks Huckabee if he'll attack Trump. Huckabee doesn't take the bait: "I love Donald Trump. He is a good man. I'm wearing a Trump tie tonight." Someone else chimes in: "Was it made in China or Mexico?" Trump says: "Such a nasty question! But thank you, Governor." [VIDEO.]

9:54 — Fiorina is asked if the government should "do more" to encourage employer-sponsored 401(k) retirement plans. "No. . . . Every time the government gets engaged in something, it gets worse. And then the government steps in to solve the problem. And we get a little closer to that progressive vision that Hillary Clinton is talking about."

9:59 — Bush is asked if he'd crack down on "fantasy sports." Bush says: "There needs to be some regulation." Christie is aghast: "Are we really talking about getting the government involved in fantasy football?! We've got ISIS attacking us . . . and we're talking about fantasy football?!" Moderator John Harwood interrupts Christie's answer, and Christie goes after him: "Do you want to answer, or do you want to let me answer? Even in New Jersey, what you're doing is called rude!"

10:02 — Paul admits we should have "some safety net" — "but you oughta acknowledge that government doesn't do a very good job of it." The entitlement crisis is "your grandparents' fault for having too many kids!"

10:08 — Trump says he'll make the economy so "dynamic" that we won't need any specific entitlement reform. Bush says that's naive — we can't just "grow our way out of it"; we need to do things like means testing for Social Security.

10:13 — We're at the point where the candidates have run out of things to say, so everyone (Christie, Rubio, Fiorina) has resorted to blandly saying there are a lot of "good ideas" on the stage.

10:17 — In her closing statement, Fiorina admits: "I may not be your dream candidate just yet, but I can assure you: I'm Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare, and in your heart of hearts, you can't wait to see a debate between Hillary Clinton and Carly Fiorina." [VIDEO.]

10:17 — Carson: "I just want to thank all of my colleagues here for being civil and not falling in the traps."

10:20 — Trump uses his closing statement to point out how he and Carson "renegotiated" the debate down from 3 hours to 2 hours "so we can get the hell out of here!" John Harwood says, contrary to what everyone was reporting, that the debate "was always going to be 2 hours." Trump points his finger at Harwood and shouts: "You know that that is not right!" [VIDEO.]

10:22 — Bush's closing statement is flat and low-energy, as Trump would put it.

It seems like the main story from tonight is:

Moderators lose control at third GOP debate

How CNBC Lost Its Own G.O.P. Debate

The CNBC Republican Debate Was A Total Trainwreck

This was indisputably the worst-moderated debate of this young cycle, and perhaps the worst-moderated debate ever.

(Note: that last link goes to the conservative National Review, and the link before it goes to the liberal ThinkProgress — so people across the spectrum agree.)

Here's Alex Knepper's verdict:

Winners: Christie, Carson . . . , Cruz, Rubio

Losers: CNBC, Kasich, Paul, Bush

Wash: Everyone else

Awful debate, and I anticipate most of the reporting about the debate will center around how badly it was conducted.

Two Washington Post writers agree with Knepper:

The third Republican presidential debate on Wednesday evening ended with a handful of winners – Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz – and one clear loser, former Florida governor Jeb Bush. . . .

Bush was a minor presence – a night so bad for him that his campaign manager confronted CNBC producers off the stage, angry about Bush’s lack of airtime [sic — the paragraph ends without any punctuation]

Hey, at least he won over the anti-fantasy-football vote.

Erick Erikson, the conservative commentator, says:

This was the debate where Jeb Bush sealed the deal and began transitioning to “former Presidential candidate.”

Election Betting Odds shows how the candidates' odds have changed since 8:00 p.m., right before the debate. As of about 10:30 p.m., right after the debate, Rubio and Huckabee are the only Republican candidates (who were in the main debate) whose odds have improved. Rubio improved the most (2.6%), and then Cruz (1%). There was no change for Carson or Paul. The rest declined (Trump by 0.4%, Bush by 2.2%, Fiorina by 1.9%, Kasich by 0.4%, and both Christie and Huckabee by 0.3%). Rubio has by far the best odds of being the nominee: 33% (and a 15% chance of winning the presidency). Trump has 17%, Bush has 14%, Carson has 10%, Cruz has 6.5%, and the rest are in low single digits.

Fiorina spoke the most (I would have thought it was Rubio), and Bush spoke the least (I'm not surprised — he made very little impression).

[Added the next day:] An observation, after thinking more about the debate: Bush seems uncomfortable in his own skin. Rubio seems comfortable in his own skin. And voters are always going to prefer the latter kind of person.