Sir George Martin (1926 - 2016)

I read the news today, oh boy . . . George Martin has died at 90.

It would be hard to overstate the effect George Martin had on the Beatles. And it would be hard to think of any human being in the world who wasn't an actual rock musician, yet had a bigger impact on rock music, than him.

George Martin wasn't just a great producer who happened to work with the greatest rock band of all time. There's a reason he's called the fifth Beatle, but even that honorific fails to capture what he really did. He didn't merely provide so many studio innovations that it's possible to pick out many Beatles songs where his effect on the finished product was at least as important as that of some of the actual Beatles. He radically challenged every preconception of what a rock band was supposed to be, in a way that didn't just change what the Beatles sounded like, but changed the next 50 years of music. George Martin allowed the band to encompass Western classical music ("Eleanor Rigby," "In My Life"), Indian classical music ("Without You Without You," "Love You To"), jazz ("When I'm 64," "Honey Pie"), and more.

There have been so many volumes written about what George Martin added to the Beatles' recordings. I'll just point to one small example, remembering that there are dozens and dozens of things like this in the Beatles' oeuvre. This is an analysis of "Being for the Benefit of Mr. Kite!" by Ian MacDonald in his book Revolution in the Head: The Beatles' Records and the Sixties:

Lennon wandered into an antiques shop and picked up a Victorian circus poster advertising . . . a show put on by some travelling tumblers . . . in 1843. This appealed to his sense of the ridiculous and, when the new album [Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band] called for another composition from him, he hung the poster on the wall of his home studio and, playing his piano, sang phrases from it until he had a song. Taking it to Abbey Road, he asked George Martin for a 'fairground' production wherein one could smell the sawdust — which, while not in the narrowest sense a musical specification, was, by Lennon's standards, a clear and reasonable request. (He once asked Martin to make one of his songs sound like an orange.) While The Beatles' producer worked more naturally with the conventionally articulate McCartney, the challenges of catering to Lennon's intuitive approach generally spurred him to his more original arrangements, of which Being for the Benefit of Mr. Kite! is an outstanding example. Using harmonium, harmonicas, and a tape of Victorian steam organs and calliopes cut up and edited into a kaleidoscopic wash, he created a brilliantly whimsical impression of period burlesque, ideally complementing Lennon's dry nasal delivery. Few producers have displayed a tenth of the invention shown here.

From the New York Times obituary:

George Martin, the urbane English record producer who signed the Beatles to a recording contract on the small Parlophone label after every other British record company had turned them down, and who guided them in their transformation from a regional dance band into the most inventive, influential and studio-savvy rock group of the 1960s, died Tuesday. . . .

When the Beatles played “Please Please Me” for him for the first time, for example, it was in a slow arrangement meant to evoke the style of Roy Orbison, one of their heroes. Mr. Martin told them the song sounded dreary, and insisted that they pick up the tempo and add a simple harmonica introduction. His suggestions transformed “Please Please Me,” which became their first big hit.

Always intent on expanding the Beatles’ horizons, Mr. Martin began chipping away at the group’s resistance to using orchestral musicians on its recordings in early 1965. While recording the “Help!” album that year, he brought in flutists for the simple adornment that enlivens Lennon’s “You’ve Got to Hide Your Love Away,” and he convinced Mr. McCartney, against his initial resistance, that “Yesterday” should be accompanied by a string quartet.

A year later, during the recording of the album “Revolver,” Mr. Martin no longer had to cajole: The Beatles prevailed on him to augment their recordings with arrangements for strings (on “Eleanor Rigby”), brass (on “Got to Get You Into My Life”), marching band (on “Yellow Submarine”) and solo French horn (on “For No One”), as well as a tabla player for Harrison’s Indian-influenced song “Love You To.”

It was also at least partly through Mr. Martin’s encouragement that the Beatles became increasingly interested in electronic sound. Noting their inquisitiveness about both the technical and musical sides of recording, Mr. Martin ignored the traditional barrier between performers and technicians and invited the group into the control room, where he showed them how the recording equipment at EMI’s Abbey Road studios worked. He also introduced them to unorthodox recording techniques, including toying with tape speeds and playing tapes backward.

Mr. Martin had used some of these techniques in his comedy and novelty recordings, long before he began working with the Beatles.

“When I joined EMI,” he told The New York Times in 2003, “the criterion by which recordings were judged was their faithfulness to the original. If you made a recording that was so good that you couldn’t tell the difference between the recording and the actual performance, that was the acme. And I questioned that. I thought, O.K., we’re all taking photographs of an existing event. But we don’t have to make a photograph; we can paint. And that prompted me to experiment.”

Soon the Beatles themselves became intent on searching for new sounds, and Mr. Martin created another that the group adopted in 1966 (followed by many others). During the sessions for “Rain,” Mr. Martin took part of Lennon’s lead vocal and overlaid it, running backward, over the song’s coda.

“From that moment,” Mr. Martin said, “they wanted to do everything backwards. They wanted guitars backwards and drums backwards, and everything backwards, and it became a bore.” The technique did, however, benefit “I’m Only Sleeping” (with backward guitars) and “Strawberry Fields Forever” (with backward drums).

Mr. Martin was never particularly trendy, and when the Beatles adopted the flowery fashions of psychedelia in 1966 and 1967 he continued to attend sessions in a white shirt and tie, his hair combed back in a schoolmasterly pre-Beatles style. Musically, though, he was fully in step with them. . . . His avant-garde orchestration and spacey production techniques made “A Day in the Life” into a monumental finale for the kaleidoscopic album “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band.”

Live-blogging the first Democratic debate after Super Tuesday, in Flint, Michigan

I'll be live-blogging the Democratic debate here. Keep reloading this post for more updates.

This is the last debate before the Michigan primary.

For more live-blogging, check out the Wall Street Journal, the Atlantic, and Variety.

As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly, so they might not be verbatim, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate. If you need an exact quote, check the transcript.

8:01 — Bernie Sanders says what he's heard and seen in talking to the people of Flint, where the water is tainted by lead, "literally shattered" him.

8:03 — Hillary Clinton says she's glad they're having the debate in Flint, as she requested. Both candidates call on Michigan Governor Rick Snyder to resign.

8:06 — A Flint resident in the audience describes how she and her children have had to drive long distances to wash their fruit, brush their teeth, and drink water. She asks how she'll ever regain the trust of her government. Clinton: "Everything that is done has to be triple-checked to regain your trust."

8:08 — Sanders calls for the federal government to get involved in Flint. "You are paying more for poisoned water than I am paying in Burlington, Vermont, for clean water! First thing [we should] do is say people are not paying for poisoned water."

8:10 — Sanders sarcastically says: "Maybe we should let Wall Street come in and run Flint, because we know their honesty and integrity has done so much for America!"

8:15 — Anderson Cooper tells us the next audience member to ask a question was one of the first Flint residents to report a problem with the water — after her son stopped growing and her daughter lost her hair. She wants to know about what should be done about lead pipes throughout the country. Clinton says this was a higher priority in the Clinton administration.

8:17 — Clinton calls for "absolute accountability" for whoever's responsible — including "civil" or "criminal" liability.

8:24 — The candidates are asked what they'll do to keep jobs in Michigan, or bring back jobs there. Clinton calls for taxing companies that move jobs overseas. Sanders: "I am very glad that Secretary Clinton has discovered religion on this issue. But it's a little late." Sanders attacks her for supporting trade agreements like NAFTA. Clinton comes back: Sanders was against Obama's auto bailout, which "ended up saving the auto industry." Sanders retorts that Clinton supported "the Wall Street bailout — where some of your friends destroyed the economy!" Clinton interrupts, but Sanders snaps: "Excuse me, I'm talking!" Clinton shoots back: "Well, tell the whole story!" Sanders: "Let me tell my story — you tell yours!" Clinton: "I will!" The initial Kumbaya atmosphere of this debate has dissipated. [VIDEO.]

8:29 — Clinton calls Sanders a "one-issue candidate." Clinton knows "you have to make hard choices!" Sanders embraces the "one-issue candidate" label: "My one issue is trying to rebuild a disappearing middle class! That's my one issue!"

8:33 — Clinton lists the ways she was tough on Wall Street in 2008, including proposing a moratorium on foreclosures.

8:34 — Anderson Cooper brings up Clinton's "Shakespearean" statement that she'll release the transcript of her Wall Street speeches if all the other candidates do. Sanders points out that he's her one Democratic opponent, and he'll release all his speeches to Wall Street. He does it right then and there: "Here it is! There's nothing!" (Sanders is right — in the Democratic primaries, there's no reason for Clinton to condition her release of records on the Republican candidates' agreement.)

8:38 — Clinton lays down the gauntlet on the Export/Import Bank — she's for it, Sanders is against it. Anderson Cooper explains that the Export/Import Bank is "the federal agency that gives loans to companies that import/export American products." Sanders calls the Export/Import Bank "the Bank of Boeing." He explains that 75% of that money "goes to large corporations" — and the remaining 25% is only as large as it is because of a law that Sanders got passed. Cooper points out that Sanders agrees with Ted Cruz on the Export/Import Bank, but Sanders doesn't try to disavow that association: "I hate to break the bad news — Democrats are not always right! . . . Democrats have supported corporate welfare." [VIDEO.] Politico calls this "That time Bernie Sanders agreed with the Koch brothers."

8:44 — Somehow, the debate over the Import/Export Bank meanders into Sanders calling for European-style universal health care; Clinton says we've already gotten closer to that goal with Obamacare.

8:53 — Anderson Cooper introduces a man in the audience by showing us a photo of his 14-year-old daughter, and telling us the heart-wrenching story of how she was shot in a mass shooting in Kalamazoo, Michigan, wasn't expected to survive, but is now recovering. The dad (who's leaning toward Sanders) says his daughter has been laughing, which is great — but, of course, this never should have happened. He asks what they'd do to stop this kind of thing from happening, and asks them not to mention background checks or mental health, since the person who shot his daughter had a clear background and no mental illness. Clinton says we need to have more liability for gun makers and sellers. Sanders calls for expanded background checks — exactly what the dad said would not have stopped his daughter from being shot.

8:58 — Sanders raises the concern that if the law holds gun manufacturers liable for anyone who uses a gun to do a mass shooting, even if the shooter bought the gun legally, this could mean "ending gun manufacturing in America," which he disagrees with.

9:03 — Clinton grapples with a question about how she supported her husband's 1994 crime bill, which led to more incarceration. Don Lemon notes that as a black man, he statistically has a 1 in 3 chance of being incarcerated. Clinton points out that she and Sanders both voted for it. She says parts of the law "were a mistake," as Bill Clinton admitted last year in a speech to the NAACP. Lemon reads a quote from Sanders from 1994, warning of the horrible things that could result from it — so why did he vote for it? Sanders says his words were those of "a Congressman who was torn." He cleverly points out that if he had voted against it, Clinton would be saying: "Bernie Sanders voted against the assault-weapons ban! Bernie Sanders voted against the Violence Against Women Act!"

9:07 — A member of the audience begins his question by pointing out that opportunities often go disproportionately to "older Caucasian men and women." Sanders interrupts him with a self-effacing joke: "You're not talking about me, are ya?!" On a more serious note, Sanders says: "Most candidates wouldn't put this on their resume, but . . . I was arrested by the Chicago police for trying to desegregate the Chicago school system." [VIDEO.]

9:12 — Sanders is asked about his "racial blind spots." He says he was surprised to hear a colleague in Washington say he wasn't going to take a cab because the drivers pass him by because he's black. (That's always struck me as a somewhat tricky example of white privilege, since cab drivers aren't a group that's likely to be white and privileged — many are immigrants, for instance.)

9:16 — Don Lemon asks Clinton if she was wrong and used racially coded language in the '90s when she talked about "super predators." She says it was a "poor choice of words" and she wouldn't say it again — which doesn't really answer the question.

9:18 — Sanders criticizes Bill Clinton's welfare reform of 1996. Clinton responds: "If we're going to argue about the '90s, let's try to get the facts straight." She says she disagrees with how the law has been "applied." Sanders uses Clinton's reference to "the '90s" as a segue into railing against the financial deregulation of the '90s.

9:27 — An audience member asks about deteriorating public schools in Michigan. Sanders strikes a Rawlsian note: "A great nation is judged not by how many millionaires and billionaires it has, but how it treats the most vulnerable among us. . . . We should be ashamed of how we treat our kids and our senior citizens."

9:32 — Anderson Cooper asks Clinton if teachers' unions protect bad teachers, and the audience boos. Clinton says the problem is "scapegoating teachers" instead of increasing funding to schools. When Cooper follows up by asking if she agrees about unions protecting bad teachers, she gives an answer that's carefully worded to sound like she's unafraid to get tough on unions — without quite agreeing with Cooper's statement: she says we need to "look at this" and "eliminate that criticism."

9:37 — Clinton is asked about whether she supports fracking. She lists several requirements she would impose on any fracking, and concludes: "By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there are many places in America where fracking will take place." Sanders mocks Clinton's triangulating answer: "My answer is a lot shorter: No, I do not support fracking." (While Clinton's position is more complex, it also sounds more pragmatic and achievable.)

9:41 — Sanders says Clinton's Super PAC is "raising a huge amount of money — well, I hesitate to say 'YUGE'! . . . A lot of money from fossil-fuel companies." (Clinton seems to be trying not to laugh.) [VIDEO.]

9:50 — Anderson Cooper asks Clinton, if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, how she'll respond when he brings up her emails (as he's often done already, even in the primaries). Clinton seems a little coy and hesitant in responding. She starts by pointing out that Trump has won over 3 million votes — the most of any candidate except her. She talks about Trump's "bigotry and bluster," and repeats the line from her Super Tuesday speech: "We don't need to make America great again — America never stopped being great! We need to make America whole again." She doesn't address her emails. So I guess the answer is . . . that she'll have no answer to Trump. Maybe she just hasn't thought enough about her general-election strategy yet. Or maybe she does have a plan — and she doesn't want to tip her hand. (Thanks to a commenter for pointing out I had missed the crucial part about her emails — I went back and revised this.)

9:52 — Cooper points out that Trump has called Sanders "a Communist." "That was one of the nice things he said about me!" (Sanders, who has a pretty sharp sense of humor, has been on a roll in this debate — you could imagine Woody Allen saying that line.) Sanders says he almost always does better than Clinton in match-ups against Trump.

9:55 — Cooper asks Sanders about those who say he keeps his Judaism "in the background," to a fault. Sanders shakes his head. "I am very proud of being Jewish, and that is an essential part of who I am as a human being." "My father's family was wiped out by Hitler in the Holocaust." [VIDEO.]

9:57 — Clinton is asked about her faith. She quips: "I am a praying person — and if I hadn't been, by the time I was in the White House, I would have become one!"

10:00 — They're doing the closing statements. Sanders: "It is too late for establishment politics and establishment economics."

10:01 — Clinton uses her closing statement to anticipate the general election (with the obvious subtext that she's the likely nominee): "I don't intend to get into the gutter with whoever they nominate, but instead to lift our sights, set big goals, and make it clear that America's best days are still ahead of us."

Nancy Reagan (1921 - 2016)

Nancy Reagan, who was born Anne Francis Robbins but went by the stage name Nancy Davis, has died at age 94. From the New York Times obituary:

Mrs. Reagan was a fierce guardian of her husband’s image, sometimes at the expense of her own, and during Mr. Reagan’s improbable climb from a Hollywood acting career to the governorship of California and ultimately the White House, she was a trusted adviser.

“Without Nancy, there would have been no Governor Reagan, no President Reagan,” said Michael K. Deaver, the longtime aide and close friend of the Reagans who died in 2007.

Mrs. Reagan helped hire and fire the political consultants who ran her husband’s near-miss campaign for the Republican presidential nomination in 1976 and his successful campaign for the presidency in 1980. She played a seminal role in the 1987 ouster of the White House chief of staff, Donald T. Regan, whom Mrs. Reagan blamed for ineptness after it was disclosed that Mr. Reagan had secretly approved arms sales to Iran.

Behind the scenes, Mrs. Reagan was the prime mover in Mr. Reagan’s efforts to recover from the scandal, which was known as Iran-contra because some of the proceeds from the sale had been diverted to the contras opposing the leftist government of Nicaragua. While trying to persuade her stubborn husband to apologize for the arms deal, Mrs. Reagan brought political figures into the White House, among them the Democratic power broker Robert S. Strauss, to argue her case to the president.

Mr. Reagan eventually conceded that she was right. On March 4, 1987, the president made a distanced apology for the arms sale in a nationally televised address that dramatically improved his slumping public approval ratings.

His wife, typically, neither sought nor received credit for the turnaround. Mrs. Reagan did not wish to detract from her husband’s luster by appearing to be a power behind the presidential throne.

In public, she gazed at him adoringly and portrayed herself as a contented wife who had willingly given up a Hollywood acting career of her own to devote herself to her husband’s career. “He was all I had ever wanted in a man, and more,” she wrote in “My Turn: The Memoirs of Nancy Reagan,” published in 1989.

He reciprocated in kind. “How do you describe coming into a warm room from out of the cold?” he once said. “Never waking up bored? The only thing wrong is, she’s made a coward out of me. Whenever she’s out of sight, I’m a worrier about her.”"

In truth, she was the worrier. Mrs. Reagan wrote in her memoirs that she sometimes became angry with her husband because of his relentless optimism. He didn’t worry at all, she wrote, “and I seem to do the worrying for both of us.”

I always thought it was a little unfair how much she was made fun of for her "just say no" campaign against drugs. I actually think the reminder that you can always just say no can be pretty effective.

Here's Nancy Reagan on 60 Minutes in 2002, talking about living with a husband who has Alzheimer's disease:




The New York Times notes that Nancy helped Ronald write his poignant statement to the public about Alzheimer's:

I have recently been told that I am one of the millions of Americans who will be afflicted with Alzheimer's Disease. . . .

At the moment I feel just fine. I intend to live the remainder of the years God gives me on this earth doing the things I have always done. I will continue to share life's journey with my beloved Nancy and my family. I plan to enjoy the great outdoors and stay in touch with my friends and supporters.

Unfortunately, as Alzheimer's disease progresses, the family often bears a heavy burden. I only wish there was some way I could spare Nancy from this painful experience. . . .

I now begin the journey that will lead me into the sunset of my life. I know that for America there will always be a bright dawn ahead.

Live-blogging the first 2016 Republican debate after Super Tuesday

I'll be live-blogging the Fox News debate here. Keep reloading this post for more updates.

This is the first debate since Super Tuesday, and the first since Ben Carson dropped out. This debate will also be overshadowed by Mitt Romney's searing indictment of Donald Trump earlier today.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, the New Republic, and Althouse (my mom).

As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly, without a rewind button, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate (and I might or might not go back and correct some of them later).

9:02 — Donald Trump is asked about Romney's diatribe against him; the moderator quotes: "the bullying, the greed, the misogyny. . . ." Trump focuses on trade — an issue on which Romney used to praise Trump!

9:05 — Trump, when asked about the KKK and David Duke: "I totally disavow the Ku Klux Klan. I totally disavow David Duke. . . . You're about the 18th person to ask me that question."

9:06 — Marco Rubio is asked about the fact that he used to say he wouldn't stoop to personal attacks, but in the past week he's been making some very low blows, including "vulgar" ones, against Trump. Rubio says the media gives "an incredible amount of coverage" to Trump's attacks, and he "deserves" to be attacked the same way. Trump reminds us about Rubio's joke about Trump's supposedly small hands. Trump holds up his hands to show that they're not small. And then: "He also said: If they're small, something else must be small. I guarantee you, there's no problem!"

9:10 — Rubio to Trump: "Two-thirds of the people who have voted, have voted against you." Rubio says Trump is "not a conservative," and he "believes the nuclear triad is a rock band from the 1980s."

9:13 — John Kasich is asked whether he'd join Romney in encouraging voters to vote for Rubio in Florida, to try to lead to a brokered convention — and Kasich has recently admitted a brokered convention is the only way he could get the nomination. Kasich doesn't answer the question, brushing it off as being about "process," which "bores" him!

9:18 — After Rubio attacks Trump over his business record, Trump says: "This little guy has lied so much about my record!" Trump says his siblings heard Rubio in the last debate claiming Trump had inherited $200 million, and told their brother: "We didn't know dad left you $200 million!" Rubio objects to Trump calling him a "little guy" instead of talking about "policy," which is a bit rich after Rubio has been going around implying that Trump has a small penis and that he wets his pants.

9:23 — Trump is asked how he could have said in the last debate that he'd balance the budget by abolishing the Department of Education and the EPA, whose combined budgets are far less than the deficit. Trump says he'd allowed pharmaceutical companies to "bid properly," which would reduce "hundreds of billions of dollars" of waste. Chris Wallace flatly denies that, along the lines of this fact check. Trump seems to suggest that Wallace isn't fully grasping how Trump would allow more negotiation in a way that would broadly affect the economy.

9:26 — Ted Cruz says he understands the anger of Trump supporters — but "for 40 years, Donald has been part of the corruption in Washington that you're talking about." Trump says that's because he "wasn't a politician" and "owed it to [his] company to get along" with Democrats and Republicans.

9:27 — Kasich is asked about his supposed support for raising the minimum wage, unlike Trump, who's against raising it. Kasich says he's not in favor of raising the federal minimum wage — he was just describing Ohio's increase, but states are free to set their own policies. The moderators should be better prepared! [Added later: You can judge for yourself whether Kasich really supported raising the federal minimum wage in this video from September.]

9:31 — Cruz rebuts Trump's argument that he's supported Democratic politicians just as "the cost of doing business." Cruz says that could be understandable, even if it would be "corrupt." But Trump supported Carter against Reagan, and wrote multiple checks to Hillary Clinton — not just for her Senate campaign since she was the Senator from his state, but also for her presidential campaign. Trump admits he contributed to her presidential campaign — but says that was still just the cost of doing business (which does seem to make sense).

9:37 — Trump is asked if the tape of his off-the-record discussion with the New York Times, in which he supposedly expressed a willingness to be flexible on his immigration stance, should be released, and he says no. Rubio points out that the Times would release the tape if only Trump asked, but Trump still refuses. I'm not that interested in that issue, since Trump has already admitted on the record that he might be flexible on immigration. What I find more interesting about this interchange is that after Rubio defends his record on immigration, Trump strikes a conciliatory tone. Trump seems to express appreciation for Rubio's position, and he minimizes the differences between them on immigration. That might have been understandable if this had been the first debate, but in this debate, it's a jarring juxtaposition with the raucous hostility between those two that's been going on lately. I wonder if Trump has thoughts of trying to reconcile with Rubio and use him in some way.

9:41 — Megyn Kelly asks Trump about a conflict between his statements on visas for highly skilled workers — his website seems to be against them, but his own statements seem to be favorable to them. Trump candidly admits: "I'm changing it, and I'm softening the position."

9:51 — Brett Baier asks Trump about his suggestions that he might use torture and also kill terrorists' families. Baier says some in the military would refuse an order to do so, since they've been trained to refuse illegal orders. Trump says it's not illegal, but Baier says it would be. Predictably, Trump denies that they'd refuse: "If I say do it, they'll do it." Trump goes on: "They're chopping off the heads of Christians and anybody else who happens to be in the way . . . and now we're talking about waterboarding?!"

9:56 — Without being asked a question, Kasich chimes in to say that in a survey of about 700 foreign-policy experts, 55% said he would be the strongest on foreign policy. Kasich reminds us of his experience in Congress (before his current position as Governor), and alludes to one of the most famous debate moments in American history: "I knew Ronald Reagan! And I'll leave it right there as to what comes after that."

10:01 — Megyn Kelly plays a clip show of Trump flip-flopping on 3 issues: whether we should have invaded Afghanistan (no, then yes), whether to allow refugees from Syria (yes, then no), and whether George W. Bush lied us into the Iraq war (yes, then unsure). On the first one, Trump says he simply meant Iraq, not Afghanistan (although he admits that he once told Howard Stern, "meekly," that he'd support invading Iraq). On Syrian refugees, he says he changed his mind because he originally imagined very few refugees, and then heard larger numbers ("thousands and thousands"). Kelly tries to make a larger point out of all this: "You change your tune on so many things, and that has many people saying: What is your core?" "I've never seen a successful person who didn't have a degree of flexibility." That was a pretty tough series of questions, which Trump handled pretty adeptly.

10:07 — Rubio rebuffs Trump: "There's a difference between flexibility, and telling people whatever you think you need to say to get them to do what you want them to do."

Out of an abundance of caution, I'm refraining from saying anything about some legal issues being discussed in the debate, due to my professional situation.

10:14 — Cruz points to Trump and Rubio, who've been going after each other for a while, and says: "Is this the debate you want playing out in the general election?" When Trump interrupts, Cruz suggests Trump has a temper problem: "Count to 10, Donald! Count to 10!"

10:17 — Trump and Cruz argue about their poll numbers.

10:23 — Brett Baier asks Rubio: "Why haven't GOP candidates done more or talked more" about lead poisoning in the water of Flint, Michigan? Rubio says he has been talking about it; the Governor of Michigan "has taken responsibility" for it; and "Democrats" have been wrongly trying to "turn this into a partisan issue." He says there's "a proper role" for the federal government in dealing with this problem. [VIDEO.]

10:25 — Kelly asks Kasich about schools in Detroit that are "infested with rodents and insects." (The debate is happening in Detroit.)

10:28 — Cruz gives a paean to the Detroit of yesteryear, which was squandered by decades of Democratic rule. "That is a story that the media ought to be telling over and over again" — "the millions who have been hurt by" "left-wing policies."

10:30 — Kasich is asked about his comments in the last debate on same-sex marriage and religious liberty. He says if you're a same-sex couple who's turned down by a wedding photographer, "find another photographer! Don't go to court!" [VIDEO.]

10:32 — Cruz is asked if gay couples should be able to adopt children. Cruz says that's for the states to decide, citing the 10th Amendment. He pivots to saying the Supreme Court was wrong to say there's a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.

10:34 — Baier asks Rubio if he agrees with the late Justice Scalia that the 2nd Amendment "leaves room to regulate guns." Rubio says he'd leave "as little room as possible" to regulate guns. Rubio says a law-abiding "gun-owner like myself" will follow the law, but "criminals" don't care about the law.

10:36 — Trump says not as many people would have died in the Paris terrorist attacks if bullets had been flying "in the other direction."

10:39 — When Trump interrupts Cruz's answer, Cruz condescends to him: "Donald, I know it's hard for you . . ." Trump interjects again: "Lyin' Ted!" Cruz tries to calm Trump down: "Breathe, breathe, breathe . . ." Rubio: "When they're done with the yoga, can I answer the question?" Cruz: "I really hope that we don't see yoga on this stage." Rubio, pointing to Trump: "Well, he's very flexible, so you never know." [VIDEO.]

10:44 — Rubio says Trump isn't "serious" on foreign policy. He brings up Trump's answer that the military will do anything he tells them to do. "Now, that's just not true." Trump bears down: "When I say they'll do as I tell them . . . they'll do as I tell them!"

10:46 — Rubio is trying to present a more serious and sober version of himself than he did in the last debate. After Trump says Rubio isn't a "leader," Rubio says: "He's pressed on a policy issue, and his answer is just to attack somebody else with a name. . . . Will you give a detailed answer on foreign policy any time you're asked about it?"

10:50 — Wallace plays a Kasich campaign ad suggesting that Trump will name Russian President Vladimir Putin as his running mate. Wallace asks Kasich if he thinks Trump is "naive" on foreign policy. Kasich won't answer: "I'm not biting!"

10:56 — Baier asks all the candidates if they'll stand by their pledge to support the nominee. Rubio goes first: "I'll support the Republican nominee. I'll support Donald if he's the nominee." Cruz says: "Yes, because I gave my word that I would." Kasich says yes . . . but "sometimes he makes it a little bit hard!" Trump: "Yes, I will."

That's all.

"We got decimated. . . . We got killed."

Straight talk from Bernie Sanders.

25 years ago today: "Kuwait is liberated."

On February 27, 1991, President George H.W. Bush announced the end of the Gulf War.

Live-blogging the last 2016 Republican debate before Super Tuesday

I'll be live-blogging the debate here. Keep reloading this post for more updates. This will be the first Republican debate since Jeb Bush dropped out.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, and the New Republic.

The candidates walk out one by one, standing in front of the lecterns. Trump shakes hands with Cruz and Rubio. Former President George H.W. Bush is in the audience.

8:43 — Ben Carson uses his opening statement to address all the other candidates by name and say we won't solve America's problems by "trying to destroy each other."

8:44 — John Kasich gives us a pep talk: "Shoot for the stars! America's great, and you can do it!"

8:45 — Marco Rubio says this is the time for the Republican party to decide whether it's going to be a party that appeals to America's "hopes and fears" (Rubio) or its "angers and fears" (Trump).

8:45 — Ted Cruz starts out: "Welcome to Texas!" (The debate is in Houston.)

8:46 — Donald Trump begins his opening statement predictably: "My whole theme is: Make America great again." Our borders are "like Swiss cheese."

8:47 — Wolf Blitzer asks Trump about Cruz's claim that Trump is for "amnesty," since Trump would deport all illegal immigrants but then let "the good ones" come back to the US. Trump says: "He was in charge of amnesty! He was the leader!" Cruz responds by simply defending his own policy on illegal immigration, without taking the bait to attack Trump.

8:50 — Rubio on Trump's immigration stance: "A lot of these positions that he's taking are new to him." Rubio says Trump criticized Mitt Romney for talking about "self-deportation" in 2012. Trump says: "I criticized Mitt Romney for losing the election. . . . He ran one terrible campaign!"  Rubio says Trump is the only person on the stage who's hired people from other countries — for "jobs that Americans could have filled." Trump has a biting comeback that Rubio should've predicted: "I'm the only one on the stage who's hired people! . . . You haven't hired one person in your life!" [VIDEO.]

8:55 — Cruz does his usual attack on Rubio for being part of the "Gang of 8," which fought for "amnesty." But he adds a new attack against Trump for "funding the Gang of 8" — 3 Democratic Senators and 2 Republican Senators. Trump's retort to Cruz: "I get along with everybody; you get along with nobody."

8:57 — Both Rubio and Cruz gang up on Trump over a $1 million court judgment against him for hiring people illegally.

8:58 — When Trump attacks Cruz for improprieties in financial disclosures, Cruz tries to respond, but Wolf Blitzer cuts him off to ask Kasich a question. Blitzer should have let Cruz respond — he's entitled to respond to a direct attack. Yet Cruz doesn't complain (possibly because he doesn't have much of an answer — I believe he's admitted to those improprieties).

9:02 — Blitzer asks Trump how he'll make Mexico pay for the wall, when the current Mexican administration and former Mexican presidents has said that will never happen. "I will — and the wall just got 10 feet taller! . . . Mexico will pay for it, because they're not doing us any favors. . . . It's a small portion of the kind of money we lose and the deficits we have with Mexico." Blitzer asks if he'd start a trade war with Mexico over it, and Trump admits: "I don't mind a trade war!"

9:06 — Rubio says if Trump builds a wall, he'll use "illegal immigrant labor" to do it. Rubio asks Trump: "Why don't you make it in America?" Trump: "You don't know anything about business!" Rubio: "I don't know anything about bankrupting four companies!" Rubio says if Trump hadn't inherited $200 million, right now, he'd be "selling watches in Manhattan." Rubio also lets us know that Trump took $36,000 in tuition for "a fake university" called Trump University.

9:14 — Rubio points out that there are two Hispanic candidates and one black candidate on the stage, and declares: "We are the party of diversity, not the Democratic party!" Of course, the two Democratic candidates would be the first female president or the first Jewish president.

9:19 — Trump is asked about a Telemundo poll that says 3 in 4 Hispanic voters have an unfavorable view of him. "First of all, I don't trust anything Telemundo says. . . ." He points out that he won among Hispanics in Nevada. The moderator points out that he once said he loves Telemundo. Trump agrees: "I love Telemundo."

9:22 — Cruz is asked if we can trust Trump to nominate conservative Supreme Court Justices. Cruz already said in the last debate that Trump would nominate liberal Justices, but he doesn't repeat that tonight. Trump reminds us that Cruz supported President Bush's nomination of Chief Justice John Roberts, who was twice in the majority upholding Obamacare. Cruz says Trump would "cut a deal" on "religious liberty."

9:30 — Trump doesn't back down from his defense of Planned Parenthood in the previous debate: "Millions and millions of women are helped by Planned Parenthood . . . but I would defund it because I'm pro-life."

9:33 — Carson says Congress should "correct what the Supreme Court has done" on same-sex marriage (it's not clear how).

9:34 — Rubio attacks Trump for his recent (odd) statement that he likes the individual mandate in Obamacare. Trump says the "pre-existing condition" rule of Obamacare is the one part he'd keep. Of course, that doesn't explain Trump's previous statement, since the pre-existing condition rule is different from the individual mandate.

9:37 — Trump on health care: "I know the insurance companies! They're friends of mine! One of them's in the audience — he was laughing at me! He's not laughing so much anymore! Hi!"

9:37 — Rubio starts out his response on health care by saying: "Donald probably doesn't know about this, because he doesn't follow this issue very closely . . ."

9:39 — Rubio calls out Trump for repeatedly saying he's going to get rid of the barriers preventing health insurance for being sold across state lines: "Now he's repeating himself!" Trump: "I don't repeat myself! I don't repeat myself! . . . Here's the guy who repeats himself! I watched him repeat himself five times four weeks ago!" Rubio: "I saw you repeat yourself five times five seconds ago! . . . I see him repeat himself every night! . . . Everyone's dumb; he's going to make America great again; we're going to win, win, win; he's winning in the polls . . ." [VIDEO.]

9:43 — Kasich says he'll "damp down the cost of health care." Shouldn't that be "tamp down"?

9:45 — I'm not paying attention to Carson's spiel on health care. He's no longer relevant.

9:47 — Cruz paints Trump as a liberal: "He says Planned Parenthood is wonderful. . . . For decades, Donald has been advocating socialized medicine." Cruz says he's a contrast because he'd repeal Obamacare. Of course, Trump says he's against "socialized medicine" and Obamacare. Trump says he'll "make great deals" on health care, and he won't "let people die in the streets." Rubio is aghast at Trump's statement about not letting people die in the streets: "That's what Democrats say!"

9:51 — Trump is asked how he'll cut down on the debt. "Waste, fraud, and abuse." (Of course, every politician claims to be against government waste — that's easier said than done.) And he'll abolish the Department of Education and the EPA. Wolf Blitzer points out that abolishing those agencies would save less than $100 billion, which won't go very far.

9:55 — Trump is asked about Romney's recent statement that Trump should disclose his tax returns. "You don't learn anything about someone's wealth from tax returns. You learn it from a statement," which he filed on time. Also: "I'm being audited now, so I can't give [my return] until that's finished."

9:57 — Trump shoots down Hugh Hewitt while he's just starting to ask Trump a question: "Are you going to ask anyone else a question?! Every single question goes to me?! I know I'm good for ratings, but this is ridiculous!" Then Trump gratuitously says no one listens to Hewitt's radio show.

9:59 — Rubio goes back to the debt issue, saying Trump didn't give a "serious answer" on the debt.

10:01 — Cruz says Trump won't be able to attack Hillary Clinton over the Clinton Foundation, since Clinton would come back that Trump donated to her. Then Cruz brings up Rubio's earlier point about Trump University — and adds that a trial in a "fraud case" over the university has been scheduled for July, and the mainstream media will have a field day covering Trump's testimony. Trump says it's a frivolous lawsuit that he'll easily win; he could've settled it, but wanted to go to trial "on principle."

10:11 — Trump is asked about his previous statement that he'd be "neutral" as between the Israelis and Palestinians. Trump stands by his statement, saying it would undermine his negotiating position if he made it clear from the outset he was taking a side. "It doesn't do any good to start demeaning [Israel's] neighbors."

10:15 — Rubio condescends to Trump, which has been his strategy all night: "He might not realize it, but saying he'd be neutral is an anti-Israel answer. You cannot be an honest broker in a dispute where one said has been acting in bad faith." Trump comes back that he has negotiating experience and Rubio doesn't. Rubio objects: "The Palestinians are not a real estate deal, Donald!" Trump: "A deal is a deal." Rubio: "A deal is not a deal when you're negotiating with terrorists!" [VIDEO.]

10:18 — Kasich is asked if his previous statements in support of "regime change" in North Korea means he'd go to war with the country. Kasich resists the question: "I don't have to say exactly what that means. I have been doing foreign policy a long time. You don't have to spell everything out. . . . I have put it on the table that I would love to see regime change in North Korea."

10:22 — Carson lists all the issues he hasn't been asked about, so the moderator says, "This is your moment!" So he goes through his answer to all those issues. On taxes, he talks about being audited by the IRS. "They didn't find anything, because I'm honest. The IRS is not honest, and we need to get rid of them."

10:29 — Cruz accuses Trump of "writ[ing] checks to politicians that are undermining Israel" for 4 decades. Trump doesn't deny that, but says he's very pro-Israel, and Cruz is "a politician — all talk, no action." Trump points to Rubio and says, "He can't win for the obvious reason," then points to Cruz and says, "He can't win because he's a liar." Carson chimes in: "Can somebody attack me, please?" Cruz retorts: "Falsely accusing somebody of lying is itself a lie, and it's something Donald does daily!" Trump uses that as an opportunity to bring up the Cruz campaign's false statement on the day of the Iowa caucus that Carson seemed to have dropped out.

10:34 — The debate completely breaks down as Trump, Cruz, and Rubio all talk over each other for minutes on end. Cruz says Trump has been funding "liberal Democratic politicans" for 4 decades. Trump points out that he funded Cruz. Rubio: "He never funded me!" Trump agrees — he didn't want to fund Rubio — but points out that Rubio sent his book to Trump with a signed note saying Trump was "doing great." Rubio: "Yeah, on your reality TV show!" [VIDEO.]

10:38 — Rubio is asked about the Justice Department's request to Apple to unlock the iPhone of one of the San Bernardino killers. "Apple doesn't want to do it because they think it hurts their 'brand.' Well, let me tell you, their brand is not superior to the national security of the United States of America." Cruz says Rubio has come around to Cruz's position on that issue, but was wishy-washy at a recent town hall.

10:40 — Kasich says Obama should have brought Apple and the government into a room and "locked the door" till they reached an agreement on the iPhone.

10:41 — Trump is asked why we don't need a wall on the Canadian border in addition to the Mexican border. Trump says we don't have as many problems with Canada — and it would be physically harder to build that wall.

10:49 — In his closing statement, Carson tells us to "think about": "What kind of person do you want your children to emulate?" He turns his palms to us, with his arms outstretched, and alludes to his career as a neurosurgeon: "These hands, by the grace of God, have saved many lives." I wonder if he knows this will be his last debate — and that was his swan song.

10:51 — Rubio uses his closing statement to urge us to "get rid of this silliness — this looniness!"

10:53 — Trump lists his goals (e.g. "getting rid of Obamacare and replacing it with something so much better") and closes by saying: "I will get it done. Politicians will never get it done."

The New Republic's Alex Shephard has a sharp analysis:

Everyone is going to say Marco Rubio won this debate. He took the fight to Trump. And he sidelined Ted Cruz, making this look like a two man race, not a three (or five, I guess) man race. This was a big narrative win for Rubio. . . .

It’s possible that his performance will check Trump’s momentum, but Trump’s support, as many polls have shown, has largely calcified: Many of Trump’s many, many supporters decided to vote for him long ago. And in terms of policy, Rubio and Cruz both spent most of their energy attacking Trump from the right, which doesn’t touch his greatest strength as a candidate.

[quoting a tweet by Jamelle Bouie:] Trump is strong with moderate and liberal Republicans, and working-class Reps. "We're not going to let them die in the streets" is for them.

While it’s true that Trump didn’t have a great debate performance, it’s also true that he rarely does. He doesn’t have to: His rallies are treated as national events, and he’s miles ahead of his opponents as a campaigner.

What's Donald Trump like in private?

Jenna Johnson, a Washington Post reporter who's been following Trump on the campaign trail for months, tells what she's observed of him, in an interview with WaPo's "The Fix":

FIX: Does Trump treat the press corps any differently off camera than he does on camera? Or does he still not interact with you at all — or very little?

Johnson: We have very little interaction with him on a daily basis, but we occasionally get close. The Donald Trump you see in a small setting -- a visit to a campaign office, a quick interview backstage, a lunch stop -- is a different person than the bellowing, insult-throwing candidate you see on the rally stage. In one-on-one settings, he's charming, softer spoken and rather relatable. While his nasty, mean comments get the most attention, he's also capable of being overwhelmingly kind, almost to the point of being uncomfortably kind. I've interviewed a number of people who have spent a little bit of time with Trump -- big-name endorsers, dedicated volunteers, police officers assigned to protect him -- and all remark on how he somehow made them feel like the most important person in the world.

FIX: You’ve been covering Trump since the beginning. What’s the biggest change in him — if any — you’ve noticed?

Johnson: We've seen proof that he's human. For years, Trump has branded himself as this indefatigable super hero. While many men his age have lost their hair and retired, Trump is married to a former super model with whom he has a son who is in grade school. Trump, 69, boasts about only sleeping a few hours a night and promises to never take vacation if he's elected. Despite eating a diet of mostly fast food and soda, Trump claims to be exceptionally healthy. He has mocked former Florida governor Jeb Bush, 63, for being "low energy" and said that Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, 68, is exhausted and lacking the strength and stamina needed for the job.

In December, Trump seemed to lose his voice after a marathon of campaign stops. Leading up to the Iowa caucuses, Trump at times seemed lethargic and tired. The day of the New Hampshire primary, Trump pledged to do as many as half-a-dozen campaign stops but then just briefly stopped by a couple polling locations in between television interviews. The night before the South Carolina primary, his voice was hoarse and he only spoke at his big primary-eve rally for about 30 minutes....

FIX: Finish this sentence: The single most important thing about Donald Trump that you wouldn’t pick up from just watching him on TV is ________________. Now, explain.

Johnson: He is very calculated and purposeful in what he says. Trump can seem all over the place, especially when he doesn't seem to be answering the question he was just asked in a television interview. He's purposely not answering that question, pivoting to another topic and talking over any follow-up questions from the host until he or she gives up trying to get an answer and moves on to the next question.

Jeb Bush: What went wrong?

I remember when I first saw a minute of one of Jeb Bush's speeches last year, before any of the debates, I instantly sensed that he didn't have what it takes. He stumbled over practically every sentence as if he were reading the text for the first time. I instinctively turned off the speech — it isn't fun to watch someone who seems uncomfortable and forced.

There's a reason Obama, as a candidate in 2008, got so much acclaim for his soaring speeches. No matter what you think of Obama, you can't deny the political reality that his oratorical talents mattered.

While live-blogging the last Republican debate, I wrote: "Bush says America has to get more aggressive against terrorism — but he sounds lackluster when he says this. That's Bush's problem: his style doesn't match his substance. For instance, he's called himself a 'disrupter' — but he seems as conventional as anyone."

I always found it hard to imagine anyone was supporting Bush out of genuine enthusiasm rather than grudging duty. Bush may have earned the respect of many while generating excitement among no one.

The first Republican debate after New Hampshire

I'm not going to live-blog tonight's Republican debate.

But you might be able to find some live-blogging at National Review, TPM, the New Republic, and the New American Perspective (a new website co-founded by Alex Knepper).

It will be interesting to see how they address today's news that Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court has died.

I might update this post later with my non-live observations.

Live-blogging the first Democratic debate after Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire

I'll be live-blogging tonight's Democratic debate here. This could be a particularly important one. It's coming just 2 days after Bernie Sanders had a historic win of more than 20 points in New Hampshire, so now's the time for Sanders to try to build his momentum — and for Hillary Clinton to try to shift the narrative that her campaign is faltering, isn't appealing to young people, etc.

Keep reloading this post for updates throughout the debate. As always, I'll be writing quotes on the fly, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate.

Check out more live-blogging at TPM and the New Republic.

9:06 — Bernie Sanders, in his opening statement, says we have "a broken criminal justice system." In the last Democratic debate, I pointed out that Hillary Clinton seemed to seize on Sanders's failure to bring up any race-related issues in his opening statement (see my update in the last live-blog at 9:06).

9:08 — In Hillary Clinton's opening statement, she also brings up "African-Americans, who face discrimination." This fits with her plan to focus on race after New Hampshire. She also brings up the canard that women are underpaid.

9:13 — Sanders says the federal government has "a vital role in making sure that all people have a decent standard of living."

9:14 — Clinton says Sanders's health-care plan includes "a promise that cannot be kept," according to "progressive economists." "The numbers just don't add up, and many people will be worse off than they are now." [VIDEO.]

9:14 — Sanders calls out Clinton for "going around the country" saying he's going to "dismantle" Medicare, Medicaid, etc. "We're not going to dismantle anything."

9:16 — Clinton says that before "universal-coverage health care" was called "Obamacare," it was called "Hillarycare." This might be the first time I've heard her proudly associate herself with the word "Hillarycare."

9:18 — Clinton strikes a relatively conservative note on health care: "The last thing we need is to throw the country into a contentious debate about health care again. We are not England. We are not France."

9:19 — Gwen Ifill, one of the moderators, tells Clinton she "may remember a State of the Union address" that said "The era of big government is over." Ifill doesn't specify which president said that. I wish the media would remember that not everyone who's following this presidential race has been following politics for decades. Some of the people who'll be voting were born in 1998 — before President Clinton said that line.

9:21 — After Clinton begins a sentence with, "When I am in the White House . . . ," Sanders shoots back: "Secretary Clinton, you're not in the White House yet!" [VIDEO.]

9:23 — Clinton ridicules Sanders's education plan by saying it assumes all governors, including the Republican Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, the former presidential candidate, will sign onto the plan. [VIDEO.]

9:24 — Sanders doesn't really address Clinton's point about his education plan. He just says he believes everyone has a right to a college education.

9:25 — In response to a question about why more women aren't supporting her, Clinton says she believes women have "a right to make choices — even if that choice is not to vote for me! . . . We need to empower everyone — women and men — to make the best decisions, in their mind, that they can make."

9:27 – Sanders falsely refers to "the absurdity of women today making 79 cents on the dollar compared to men." (See my link at 9:08.)

9:29 — Sanders says: "A Sanders victory would be some historical accomplishment as well." My mom, Ann Althouse, likes that statement and dislikes what Clinton said:

That was a bald-faced lie when she said she wasn't asking us to vote for her because she's a woman. I was walking away from the TV and the computer, but I had to come back to take note of that. Now that I'm here, I'll add that I liked what Bernie Sanders said when he was asked how he felt about standing in the way of a first woman President. He said that if he won, considering who he is, it would also be historic. He didn't specify why. He didn't say "first Jewish President" or "socialist!" It's up to us to fill in why.

9:36 — In a discussion about the high levels of blacks in prison, Clinton talks about how "young people — particularly young men — are pushed out of school early." As a Washington Post article has put it in response to one of Clinton's speeches:

She did not mention that the racial disparities are partly the result of policies embraced by her husband.

9:39 — Moderator Judy Woodruff says "hardly anyone" thinks race relations have improved during the Obama administration, and asks Clinton how she'd do better. Clinton rejects the premise, pointing out that Obamacare has particularly benefited blacks. She refers to "the dark side of the remaining systemic racism that we need to root out in our society." In a discussion of race, perhaps it's best to avoid using the word "dark" as a synonym for "evil."

9:41 — Sanders is asked if "race relations would be better under a Sanders administration than they've been" under the Obama administration. "Absolutely!" This is unsurprising: he thinks his policies would help the poor, and the poor are disproportionately black. [VIDEO.]

9:44 — Clinton says "it would be a terrible oversight not to address the terrible problems that white Americans" have had.

9:48 — Sanders: "I disagree with [Obama's] recent deportation policies." Clinton sides with Obama.

9:50 — Clinton: "Hopefully after the 2016 election, some of the Republicans will come to their sense and realize we are not going to deport 11 million people."

9:52 — Sanders on immigration: "We have got to stand up to the Trumps of the world, who are trying to divide us up."

9:54 — The candidates are exploring their disagreements over immigration legislation, but I'm not following all their distinctions, and I doubt this discussion will have much of an effect on most Democratic voters.

10:00 — Woodruff says about half (?) of Clinton's donations come from "just two wealthy financiers."

10:01 — Clinton says she's "proud" that she, Sanders, and Obama have had more donors than any other Democratic candidate. She's making a show of complimenting Sanders, but she's really trying to undercut his advantage by depicting the two of them as similar.

10:04 — Clinton points out that Obama got more Wall Street donations "than anybody on the Democratic side, ever," and it didn't affect his support for financial regulations. Sanders has a scathing response: "Let's not insult the intelligence of the American people! They're not dumb! Why does the financial industry spend huge amounts of money on campaign contributions? I guess, just for the fun of it! They just want to throw money around!" Sanders also rejects Clinton's suggestion that our current financial regulations have been effective — the big banks are even bigger today than in 2008. [VIDEO.]

10:16 Sanders is asked if there are "any areas of government [he'd] like to reduce." Sanders says yes. "Anybody who doesn't think there is an enormous amount of waste and bureaucracy and inefficiency in government would be very mistaken." He says the Department of Defense in particular should be "audited." Clinton agrees that some government programs should be "streamlined."

10:20 — The foreign policy part of the debate is off to a dull start, with Clinton describing how she'd fight ISIL, and how she'd be better at working with our Muslim allies than Donald Trump would be.

10:22 — Sanders points out that Obama's invasion of Libya, which Clinton was part of, led to a terrible dictator being overthrown but also led to ISIL taking over large parts of the country.

10:24 — Clinton says Sanders voted for regime change in Iraq and Libya, while Sanders vigorously shakes his head. Sanders denies it.

10:27 — Sanders says Clinton talks in her book about seeking "the support or the mentoring of Henry Kissinger." "Count me in as somebody who will not be listening to Henry Kissinger!" [VIDEO.]

10:29 — Clinton retorts: "I know journalists have asked who you do listen to on foreign policy, and we have yet to know!" She also points out that Kissinger opened up our relations with China. Clinton says, somewhat patronizingly, "It's a big, complicated world out there!" [VIDEO.]

10:40 — They have the same quibble over Iran that they had in the last debate.

10:43 — They're asked to name one American leader and one foreign leader who'd influence their foreign policy. Sanders says FDR for the American leader, and Winston Churchill for the foreign leader. Clinton agrees with Sanders on FDR, and says Nelson Mandela for the foreign leader. (Not very original choices by either of them.) Then she transitions into a rousing tribute to Obama (the culmination of her name-checking of him throughout the debate), and says she does not "expect" a Democrat to criticize Obama as much as Sanders has. Sanders seems incensed: "Madam Secretary, that is a low blow. . . . Have you ever disagreed with the president? I suspect you may have! . . . One of us ran against Barack Obama; I was not that candidate."

Is Donald Trump unstoppable?

Alex Knepper, writing in the New American Perspective, thinks so:

A relatively strong Iowa finish by Rubio, a relatively strong New Hampshire finish by Kasich, and a relatively strong South Carolina finish by Bush all amount to this: Donald Trump steamrolling the competition. (As for Ted Cruz, he is likely to meet the same fate as the last two ‘winners’ of Iowa.) . . .

One week ago, I endorsed the conventional wisdom that we had a three-man race on our hands. The race is now effectively over. Let’s be blunt: Rubio had his shot to consolidate the center-right against Trump, and he blew it. Some will be tempted to blame Christie for spoiling a beautiful opportunity, but we should really be thanking him for doing us the favor of quickly exposing Rubio for the empty suit he’s always been. . . .

Given these dynamics, Trump is probably unstoppable. He is dominating the polls in every state that will vote over the next month, and he will only gain momentum from New Hampshire.

Sahil Kapur of Bloomberg observes:

Republican elites are 0-for-2 in presidential nominating contests this year, a rare and panic-inducing outcome for the party's leadership. Yet their preferred candidates continue to fight each other, and have begun the march to the next battlefield in South Carolina without a plan to stop Donald Trump. . . .

“Enormous pressure is on the establishment wing to consolidate around one candidate soon or else it will hand the Republican nomination over to Trump,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist and former senior congressional aide.

They're running out of time. With plenty of campaign cash to spare, Trump is pushing the kind of nationalistic message on immigration and foreign policy that resonates in South Carolina, a state that flew the Confederate flag on its capitol grounds until last year. The primaries beyond are just as southern and just as friendly to Trump's message.

Live-blogging the last Republican debate before the first primary

I'm going to live-blog tonight's Republican debate, the only one in between the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Keep reloading this post for more updates.

For more live-blogging, check out National Review, TPM, and the New American Perspective (a new website co-founded by Alex Knepper).

As always, I'll be writing down quotes on the fly without a transcript, so they might not be word-for-word, but I'll try to keep them reasonably accurate.

8:17 — As the candidates are announced and most of them walk to their podiums, Donald Trump and Ben Carson stay near the back! When Carson finally walks up to the stage but Trump stays back, the moderator announces Trump again, saying: "Lastly, we welcome . . . Donald Trump" — but there are two empty podiums! Chris Christie points out who's missing: "What about Kasich? Can I introduce Kasich?" [Added later: Carson explains it — he just couldn't hear his name being called.]




8:20 — Trump says he has "the best temperament" to be president. "I talked about Muslims. We have a problem. Nobody wanted to talk about the problem." He also reminds us that he was against the Iraq war — "others would be much faster" on the "trigger."

8:23 — Ted Cruz keeps tapping his lectern, making a loud, annoying noise in the mic.

8:24 — Trump is referring to himself in the third person more often than in the past: "We're going to win, with Trump. We're not going to back down, with Trump." Does he think he lost Iowa because he didn't have enough name recognition?

8:26 — Ben Carson eloquently addresses the false rumors spread by the Cruz campaign on the night of the Iowa caucus that Carson was dropping out. Carson points out how absurd it would be for him to drop out at the last minute after so many people had put so much effort into supporting him. "One of them even died." Cruz apologizes. Alex Knepper says:

“Easier to ask forgiveness than permission,” isn’t it, Sen. Cruz?

8:29 — Marco Rubio is asked about the fact that he's a first-term Senator, as Obama was when he was elected. After listing his legislative accomplishments, he argues that Obama's inexperience wasn't the problem — "he knew exactly what he was doing!" Christie responds sharply: "You have not been involved in a consequential decision where you had to be held accountable." Christie also points out that one of the things Rubio listed about his experience was a bill he didn't even vote on. "That's not leadership — that's truancy!" When Rubio tries to respond, Christie keeps ridiculing Rubio for his "25-second memorized speeches."

Most of the commentary seems to be that Christie is getting the better of his tussles with Rubio. Rubio does seem more weak and on the defensive than usual. But remember, Cruz had a weak debate shortly before the Iowa caucus, and that didn't stop him from winning.

Alex Knepper seems to think Rubio had a good response to the inexperience question:

The 'Republican Obama' attack might fall flat with Republican voters because a lot of them would love a Republican Obama: they think Obama has fundamentally transformed the country in the image of progressivism, and they would love someone who can fundamentally transform the country in the image of conservatism.

8:38 — Cruz blames "the first Clinton administration" (an odd phrase at this point) for North Korea's launch of a long-range missile earlier today.

8:42 — When John Kasich is asked about the North Korean missile, he starts out weak and tone-deaf, changing the subject to saying his "town hall meetings" are more "fun" than this debate has been.

8:48 — Christie says Obama is "for paying ransom for hostages."

8:52 — On immigration, Cruz says: "We're going to build a wall . . ." Trump makes a face at this, which gets a laugh. Cruz says: "Since Donald enjoyed that, I've got somebody in mind to build it!"

8:56 — Rubio and Christie are tangling again, this time on immigration, with the same dynamics we've seen in this and other debates: Rubio justifies his Senate record, while Christie mocks the whole idea of Congress and says only someone who's held an executive office, like Christie, can lead.

9:01 — When Carson is asked about health care, he says: "I was hoping to get a chance to talk about North Korea. I was the only one who didn't get a chance to do that." He hasn't been saying much in this debate.

9:03 — Trump is asked about eminent domain. "Eminent domain is an absolute necessity . . . for our country. Without it, you wouldn't have roads, you wouldn't have schools, you wouldn't have bridges." He also points out that compensation is constitutionally required: "When eminent domain is used on someone's property, that person gets a fortune!" Jeb Bush says those kinds of things are fine because they're for a "public purpose," but Trump tried to take an "elderly woman's" property and use it for "a limousine parking lot for his casinos." Trump says he didn't do that, but Bush says: "You tried!"

9:16 — Trump is asked about the charges that he's not a real conservative. He says "conservative" is "a very important word," and it's rooted in the word "conserve." "We want to conserve our money. We want to conserve our wealth."

9:18 — The moderator tells Trump that Christie has encouraged people who go to Trump rallies to ask Trump a simple question: "How?" So the moderator asks Trump "how" he'll create jobs. That question is framed to sound tough, but it's actually a softball — all Trump has to do is pitch his tax plan and claim it'll create jobs.

9:20 — Kasich says: "We have grown government at the rate of inflation." I understand that this is supposed to mean he's kept a tight rein on government, but he could have phrased that more effectively for the Republican primaries. Republican voters are going to be turned off by hearing: "We have grown government . . ."

I missed some stuff here because the ABC News feed keeps cutting out and going to an ad.

9:26 — Cruz is asked about his plan to "carpet-bomb" ISIL. He says it would be "targeted," not "indiscriminate." Cruz says ISIL has something called "Jihadist University." "Why is that building still standing? It should be rubble. However, I would be willing to wait until freshman orientation before launching those bombings."

9:31 — While Rubio is giving a long answer about how to fight ISIL, I'm thinking Carson must feel like he's getting the O'Malley treatment. [Added later: Indeed, Carson spoke the least.]

9:33 — Trump talks about the need to cut off ISIL's "banking channels." "Nobody knows banking like I do. . . . It's going to dry up very quickly."

9:35 — Bush says America has to get more aggressive against terrorism — but he sounds lackluster when he says this. That's Bush's problem: his style doesn't match his substance. For instance, he's called himself a "disrupter" — but he seems as conventional as anyone.

9:36 — A few minutes after I commented about how Carson hasn't had much to say (9:33), Carson quips: "I'm not here just to add beauty to the stage!"

9:38 — Cruz says he's "joined with Senator McCain" by opposing waterboarding as a general matter, but he doesn't consider it torture and wouldn't rule it out in dire circumstances.

9:39 — Trump: "I'd bring back waterboarding — and I'd bring back a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding!"

9:48 — Kasich makes a contrived attempt at generating excitement: "If I'm president, go out and get a seatbelt, because there's going to be so much happening in the first hundred days, it'll make your head spin!"

9:51 — Cruz tells the wrenching story of his half-sister's heroin addiction, which ended with her death a few years ago.

9:53 — Christie on drug addiction: "This is a disease. It's not a moral failing. . . . I'm pro-life, not just for the nine months in the womb. It gets a lot harder after that."

9:54 — Trump is asked how he'll run against Hillary Clinton considering her potential to make history by being the first female president. Trump doesn't specifically address the gender angle; he simply declares that he's going to beat her by a lot.

9:57 — Carson is asked the same question. He doesn't talk about gender — or race. He says he'd turn the election into "a referendum about honesty vs. deceitfulness."

10:11 — Christie is asked whether he'd quarantine Americans to prevent the spread of the Zika virus. "You bet I would!"

10:13 — Rubio is asked whether women should be required to register with the military in the event there's a draft. Rubio says yes — including for combat. Bush agrees.

10:17 — Christie says: "There's no reason young women should be discriminated against in registering for the Selective Service." He talks as if it's just discrimination against women — but it's mainly discrimination against men, who are the only ones required to stand ready to be enslaved to fight in a war.

10:25 — Trump says if he's president, "waste, fraud, and abuse" in government will "disappear quickly." That's preposterous — every politician claims to be against government waste. If it were so easy to get rid of, that would have happened a long time ago.

10:31 — There's a "lightning round" of questions about the Super Bowl. Why does the media think it's a good idea to bring up sports on a political show?

10:44 — After Cruz gives his closing statement, Trump says: "He got Ben Carson's votes, but we won't say that . . ."

Alex Knepper's verdict:

Winners: Christie, Kasich, Bush; Wash: Trump, Cruz, Carson; Loser: Rubio. There’s just no question that Rubio among all the candidates suffered the greatest number of blows. Rubio simply was not prepared for the onslaught from the governors, who demonstrated a real hunger.

I agree that Rubio was weak and had the worst night. But I also thought Kasich was pretty awkward — I don't understand why people are saying he did well.

Live-blogging the last Democratic debate before the first primary

I'll be live-blogging tonight's Democratic debate — the first debate since the Iowa caucuses revealed how close the race is between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, and the only Democratic debate between then and the New Hampshire primary.

Keep reloading this post for more updates. For more live-blogging, check out TPM.

9:03 — This is the first debate with just the two of them. Unlike in previous debates, when each candidate would walk out one by one, this time we see them both walking toward the camera, side by side.

9:05 — Sanders gives an opening statement hitting his familiar notes: the economy is "rigged"; campaign finance is "corrupt."

9:06 — In her opening statement, Clinton says "yes, of course" those things Sanders said are true — but we also need to focus on racism, sexism, and discrimination against LGBT people (implying that Sanders is less concerned about those issues since he didn't mention them in his opening statement).

9:07 — Clinton says she and Sanders "share big progressive goals." But she doesn't "believe in free college." This is an implicit response to Sanders's recent comments that Clinton can't call herself both "progressive" and "moderate." She cleverly argues that "a progressive is someone who makes progress," and Sanders's agenda isn't "achievable."

9:11 — Clinton repeats her usual argument that she'd "improve" Obamacare, but Sanders would scrap the system. Sanders points out that he participated in writing Obamacare — "The idea that I would dismantle health care in America, while we're getting ready to have Medicare for all, is just not accurate."

9:14 — Clinton lists other Democrats who wouldn't be considered "progressive" under Sanders's definition — including Obama, Biden, and Senator Paul Wellstone (who died in 2002) — because Wellstone "voted for DOMA." The point about Wellstone and DOMA seems like an odd one for Clinton to make. The Defense of Marriage Act is now universally reviled among liberals, and Clinton has to worry that Democratic primary voters will be turned off by the fact that she used to be passionately opposed to same-sex marriage, and was pretty late in coming around to the right position.

9:22 — Rachel Maddow asks Sanders about the fact that he's not really a Democrat. Sanders proudly declares: "I am the longest-serving independent in the history of the United States Congress." Maddow says Sanders was a spoiler in a race in the '80s that was won by a Republican, but Sanders points out that he only lost that race by a few points — "the Democrat was the spoiler!"

9:25 — Sanders says "almost the entire establishment" is supporting Clinton, while millions of "people" have supported Sanders by giving him contributions averaging $27. Clinton says Sanders is the only person who'd describe Clinton as "exemplifying the establishment" when she's "a woman running to be the first woman president."

9:28 — Clinton says "it's time" to end Sanders's "artful smear" and "innuendo" about her donations and speaking fees from Wall Street. "If you've got something to say, say it, directly!" The audience gets riled up, going "Ooooh!" when Clinton says the word "smear." [VIDEO.]

9:31 — Clinton says Sanders voted for financial deregulation in 2000 which led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Apparently she realized that she's seemed too defensive on this issue and she needed to go on the offensive.

9:40 — Clinton is asked again about her Wall Street speaking fees. She says Wall Street clearly knows where she stands since Wall Street has been spending millions of dollars against her primary campaign, at which point Sanders rolls his eyes.

9:42 — Sanders goes on a diatribe against Wall Street. "Kid gets caught with marijuana — that kid gets sent to jail. A Wall Street executive destroys the entire economy — $5 billion settlement, no criminal record."

9:43 — Clinton tries to move to Sanders's left by saying she'd "take us further" in taking action against "corporate power."

9:46 — Chuck Todd asks Clinton if she's release all the transcripts of all her paid speeches. Clinton seems slightly little taken aback by that sweeping request, which she quickly brushes off — "I don't know, I'll look into it" — before using the rest of her time to get back to her talking points.

Bill Scher responds to the question about transcripts of Clinton's speeches:

Pro-tip: conspiracies don't have transcripts

9:49 — Sanders: "The business model of Wall Street is fraud."

9:57 — Clinton says it's "off the table" to deploy ground troops against ISIL. She agrees with President Obama's current strategy except that she'd give "more support for the people on the ground."

9:59 — Sanders "agree[s] with much" of what Clinton said about ISIL. In fact, he doesn't suggest that there's any difference between them on that. Instead, he switches to reminding us that he was against the Iraq war and Clinton voted for it.

10:00 — Todd asks Sanders how long he'd leave the 10,000 troops in Afghanistan which Obama will leave for him. He doesn't specifically answer the question. He goes back to talking about ISIL, saying we need "Muslim troops on the ground" to fight ISIL; American ground troops would be targets.

10:02 — Clinton gets into a lot more details of what's going on in Afghanistan. She also doesn't give a specific answer about how long she'd leave our troops there, but her answer on Afghanistan sounds much more impressive than Sanders's.

10:03 — Todd asks Sanders why foreign policy doesn't seem to be one of his big issues, and why he hasn't given a major foreign-policy speech. "I gave a speech about democratic socialism and foreign policy. Maybe I shouldn't have combined the two of them into the same speech!" Only the former part got any attention.

10:06 — Clinton brings up a couple of Sanders's past statements on foreign policy and says they're very questionable. Clinton says it's "not acceptable" for Sanders to say "I'll get to that when I can." Sanders: "I fully concede that Secretary Clinton, who was Secretary of State for 4 years, has more experience . . . on foreign affairs." But Sanders again reminds us . . . she voted for the Iraq war.

10:10 — Sanders bring up Clinton's dispute with Obama from 2008 about whether to "talk to our enemies." Clinton says she's going to "correct the record": the question in 2008 was about whether to meet with them "without conditions." It's unusual to see Clinton (implicitly) criticizing Obama like that now, 8 years later. Clinton points out that the Obama administration talked with Iran only after satisfying various conditions — effectively saying "Told ya!" to Obama.

10:14 — Clinton refers to the Iran deal with an incomprehensible string of jargon: "That's an enforcement consequence action-for-action follow-on."

10:18 — Sanders reels off his accomplishments on veterans' issues. This seems like an implicit comeback to Clinton's line that only she can get things done.

Bill Scher makes a good point:

Everyone who says Elizabeth Warren would be winning this primary, ask yourself how she'd be doing with these foreign policy questions

10:25 — Sanders is asked about the results in Iowa, and Sanders emphasizes that he got 20 delegates to Clinton's 22 — and they need about 2,500 to get the nomination. "This is not the biggest deal in the world." He does point out that some of the results were based on coin flips, but he hastens to add: "I love and respect the caucus process in Iowa. And I don't have to say it, because they've already voted! And I love the New Hampshire primary, because they haven't voted yet!"

10:27 — In response to a question for Sanders about how he'd do in the general election, he cites some general-election polls that have him doing much better than Clinton against Donald Trump.

10:29 — Clinton tells Sanders she's "thrilled by the numbers of people . . . who are coming to support your campaign," which is a little hard to believe. As for the general election, Clinton says: "I've been vetted. There's hardly anything you don't know about me."

10:33 — Todd asks Clinton if she's "100% confident that nothing is going to come" of the FBI investigation into her email practices. Clinton says yes, "I'm 100% confident! . . . This just beggars the imagination!"

10:34 — Todd asks Sanders if he still feels the same way about Clinton's emails as he did in the first debate, when he famously said: "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails!" Sanders says: "I'm feeling exactly how I felt at the first debate. There's a process underway — I will not politicize it."

10:41 — Clinton is asked if she still supports the death penalty. She says she does, but she has much more confidence in it at the federal level than the state level. As an example, she says she's glad that Timothy McVeigh was executed for blowing up 168 people, "including 19 children in a day-care center."

10:43 — Sanders is firmly against the death penalty: "There is so much killing out there. I don't believe that government should be part of the killing. . . . We should lock them up and throw away the key."

10:47 — Todd points out that Clinton has taken stands against trade agreements (NAFTA and the TPP) while campaigning in 2016 and 2008, but has supported them at other times. And Todd points out that Sanders has "never supported a trade deal" in the decades he's been in Congress! Sanders says he believes in "trade" — but not "free trade."

10:56 — Todd asks Clinton which of three issues she'd prioritize — immigration, guns, or climate change. "History shows, whichever you pick first, you have the best shot of getting." Clinton simply rejects that premise. Sanders says Todd missed the most important issue: campaign finance reform.

11:00 — Maddow asks Clinton if she'd eliminate any government agencies — or create any new ones. Clinton says no, she'd just make the existing ones work better.

11:02 — Todd asks Clinton if she'd pick Sanders as her running mate — which is a dumb question, since she's obviously not going to answer it. But if she is the nominee, "the first person" she'll call "will be Senator Sanders."

11:04 — In her closing statement, Clinton urges voters to use their "head" and their "heart." "We have a lot of work that can only come because your heart is moved."

11:06 — Sanders, in his closing statement: "I'm running for president because I believe it is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics. We need a revolution."

Flipping coins to decide the Democratic Iowa caucuses

My friend Ben Wikler, the Washington Director of Moveon.org (which is supporting Bernie Sanders), describes how one of the Iowa caucus precincts was decided:

[T]he first vote was roughly evenly split between Bernie and Hillary. (Nobody for O'Malley.) There are five delegates at stake, divided between the candidates in proportionate to their votes in the room. So it'll be two and two, with one delegate at stake.

The four undecideds go into a corner to hear pitches from supporters of either side. The rest of the crowd mills around; a few go to the bathroom; one or two don't come back.

Three people make up their mind for Bernie; one for Hillary. Back to seats.

Final vote. 61 for Bernie. For Hillary it's 59... 60... 61. Tie!

Recount. Slower this time. Still 61-61. Whoa.

So how do you break a tie? At this precinct, the answer is apparently: COIN FLIP.

Bernie's people call it: heads. Up goes the coin. Back down. Everyone clusters around to look.

Tails.

Cheers go up on the Hillary side, frustration on Bernie side, and boom, that's it: three delegates for Hillary, two for Bernie, a bajillion fail points awarded to the people who left in the middle of the caucus, and we're off the Bernie victory party.

Ben caught it on video (if this video doesn't show up properly, click here):

Iowa Caucus precinct awards delegate to Clinton based on coin ...

Watch it happen: #IowaCaucus delegate awarded to Clinton based on coin flip in tied precinct. w/ MoveOn.org's Benjamin O'Keefe

Posted by Ben Wikler on Monday, February 1, 2016

Here's another video of the same coin flip, shown on C-SPAN. You can hear Ben Wikler say, "What?!" at about 0:25, and a couple seconds later he shows up just to the right of the woman who's explaining the procedure.



This also happened five other times. Hillary Clinton won all six coin tosses.

Megan McArdle comments:

Hillary Clinton is a terrible candidate. . . . That doesn’t mean she won’t eventually end up being president, but if she does, it will be despite her lackluster political skills, rather than because of them. The woman has had almost incumbent levels of support from her party, which paved the way for an easy coronation . . . and saw her come to a statistical tie with a self-avowed socialist.

Think about this: she started up 30 percent over Bernie Sanders, and ended up winning six precincts by a coin toss. Clinton seems to have a stronger base of support among Iowa coins than she does among Iowa caucus voters.

Pocket Change We Can Believe In!

A Facebook friend pointed out that the real problem seems to be that Sanders supporters are terrible at calling coin flips. Why, I can see the attack ad now . . .

(Narrator, speaking slowly with a tone of voice expressive of deep concern, over grainy black-and-white footage of slow-motion coin flips in Iowa auditoriums:) "The Bernie Sanders campaign . . . has consistently called coin flips wrong. How can we expect Bernie Sanders . . . to do what's right for America?"